This week’s developments saw Tunisia’s political repression deepen amid mounting public unrest, while the fate of the UN arms embargo on South Sudan remains uncertain. In Europe, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow for high-level talks as Ukrainian drone strikes hit the Russian capital. Meanwhile, fragile diplomatic openings emerged in two key flashpoints: the Red Sea and Kashmir.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Pakistan signals willingness to de-escalate: Following Indian missile strikes on Pakistani territory and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Islamabad has vowed to retaliate, claiming it downed five Indian aircraft. Yet amid the most serious flare-up in over two decades, both sides appear cautiously weighing their next moves. Pakistan’s defence and foreign ministers confirmed ongoing contact between national security advisors, with Islamabad expressing openness to U.S. mediation. While Pakistan reserves the right to respond if provoked again, officials stress that “restraint is still being applied.” Analysts suggest Islamabad’s ambiguous messaging may be deliberate—intended to maintain pressure without escalating. With both militaries on alert, miscalculation remains a risk, but diplomatic lines remain open.

2️⃣ 🇴🇲 🇾🇪 🇺🇸 Oman brokers U.S.–Yemen ceasefire: The United States and Yemen’s Houthi movement have agreed to halt mutual hostilities under an Oman-brokered truce, aimed at protecting Red Sea maritime traffic. President Donald Trump said the Houthis had "capitulated" and confirmed an immediate halt to U.S. strikes, though Houthi leaders vowed to continue attacking Israel. Hours later, Israeli warplanes bombed Yemen’s Sanaa airport in retaliation for a Houthi missile strike on Tel Aviv, destroying infrastructure and causing civilian casualties. The United Nations warned of a dangerous regional escalation as both sides traded strikes amid mounting tensions over Israel’s Gaza offensive.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 Sudan cuts ties with UAE over RSF backing: Sudan has formally cut diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates, declaring it a “state of aggression” for allegedly supplying advanced weapons to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The decision came after three days of drone attacks on Port Sudan, targeting oil infrastructure, military bases, and civilian areas. Defence Minister Yassin Ibrahim accused the UAE of escalating its involvement after realising its “local agent,” the RSF, was facing defeat, and said Sudan reserves the right to respond by any means necessary. The government claims the RSF has used strategic drones supplied by the UAE to strike multiple sites across Sudan, threatening civilian lives and regional stability.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israeli strike on Beirut raises fears of renewed Lebanon conflict: Last week, Israel conducted an airstrike on Beirut, targeting what it alleged was a Hizbollah missile storage facility. The Israeli Defence Force framed the attack as a response to violations of the November ceasefire, which obliges Lebanon to dismantle all non-state military assets. President Joseph Aoun condemned the strike and called on France and the U.S.—the truce’s guarantors—to restrain further Israeli escalation. While Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon have continued, this marks only the third strike on the capital since March, raising concerns that such operations may become normalized. Analysts suggest Israel may be attempting to force Lebanese disarmament of Hizbollah or to weaken Iranian leverage—if not both. With diplomatic channels stalling, Hizbollah could soon reassert its armed resistance narrative.

5️⃣ 🇨🇴 Cabinet fiasco derails Colombian president Petro’s reform agenda: Colombia’s Senate President Efraín Cepeda condemned President Gustavo Petro’s labor referendum as an “unprecedented attack” on state institutions, likening Petro’s recall threats and militaristic symbolism to past efforts by armed groups to undermine Congress. Opposition figures echoed Cepeda’s criticism, with Radical Change Senator Carlos Abraham Jiménez accusing Petro of authoritarianism and deception. Despite the backlash, a recent poll shows 57% of Colombians support the proposed reforms, especially measures to protect informal workers, though Petro’s approval remains split. With the Senate vote looming and Petro short of a majority, the outcome may hinge on a group of undecided senators, as political tensions intensify ahead of Colombia’s 2026 elections.

Major Story

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 ISRAEL’S GAZA BLOCKADE AND THE ICC’S STARVATION CASE: A LEGAL RECKONING

In early March, Israel reimposed a total blockade on Gaza, halting the flow of food, fuel, medicine, and electricity in what officials described as a strategy to pressure Hamas into concessions. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir publicly defended the policy as a method to intensify suffering in the enclave, while Likud MK Moshe Saada bluntly endorsed starvation as a legitimate tactic. With humanitarian access cut, the UN World Food Program reported its supplies exhausted, and all 25 UN-supported bakeries shuttered. Gaza now faces its longest stretch without relief since the war began, with 91% of residents lacking drinking water.

This siege has drawn the attention of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant—not for conventional war crimes alone, but for intentionally using starvation as a weapon. This marks the first time the ICC has made starvation the central charge in a war crimes prosecution. The Rome Statute identifies starvation of civilians as a war crime when it involves willfully obstructing humanitarian relief. The blunt admissions by Israeli officials provide rare and direct evidence of intent.

Historically, starvation has been a weapon of choice for powerful states—used extensively in both World Wars and often shielded from prosecution by legal loopholes and political calculation. The tactic was only explicitly outlawed in 1977, and even then, prosecutions have been virtually non-existent. The ICC case could therefore set a groundbreaking precedent.

Yet the path forward is uncertain. Proving intent remains difficult, and the ICC faces political headwinds, especially from the United States. Still, the case signals a shift in global legal norms and raises a critical question: can even powerful, Western-aligned states be held accountable for violating humanitarian law?

With new warrants potentially forthcoming and public scrutiny growing, the ICC’s Gaza case may become a turning point in the effort to criminalize starvation as a method of war—and to reinforce international law where it has long been ignored.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 Merz confirmed as German chancellor: Friedrich Merz has officially become Germany’s chancellor after a rocky start, narrowly securing the post in a second-round vote following an unexpected initial failure. Despite his CDU/CSU alliance forming a coalition with the SPD, 18 coalition lawmakers withheld support in Tuesday’s secret ballot, exposing internal fractures in the new government. Though Merz ultimately secured 325 votes—above the 316 threshold—his early stumble was a historic embarrassment and highlights the fragility of his administration. The far-right AfD capitalised on the chaos, renewing calls for fresh elections and claiming the episode proves the governing coalition’s weak foundation.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇺🇦 Xi visits Russia amid drone strikes on Moscow: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow on Wednesday for a four-day visit during which he will meet President Putin and attend Russia’s Victory Day military parade. His trip coincided with a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks that forced airport closures and disrupted flights, including that of Serbia’s president. Russia claimed to have intercepted over 500 drones in 24 hours. Xi’s visit, which includes planned cooperation agreements and talks on a new gas pipeline, highlights deepening China-Russia ties despite accusations from Kyiv that China is tacitly aiding Moscow’s war effort. Beijing argues that it maintains neutrality in the conflict.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇸 UN arms embargo on South Sudan faces uncertain renewal: The UN Security Council is set to vote later this month on whether to extend its arms embargo on South Sudan, as the country edges toward renewed civil war. Initially facing opposition, the embargo’s renewal now hangs in the balance following the outbreak of conflict in Nasir and growing instability nationwide. The embargo—first imposed in 2018 to curb heavy weapons imports—had slowed under diplomatic pressure, but U.S. backing for its continuation and Uganda’s reported violations by aiding Kiir’s forces have shifted momentum. With clashes spreading across multiple states and South Sudan’s economy crumbling amid oil pipeline failures, the risk of further arms proliferation looms large, and the Security Council’s decision may prove pivotal in shaping the next phase of South Sudan’s fragile peace.

4️⃣ 🇹🇳 Tunisia's political repression deepens as popular anger mounts: In April, Tunisia was rocked by protests after three students were killed in a school wall collapse in Mezzouna, reigniting anger over state neglect. Security forces responded with tear gas, media blackouts, and violence, while President Kais Saied deflected blame and ordered the arrest of the school principal. Rather than offering accountability or reform, Saied has doubled down on repression—handing down sham sentences of up to 66 years to over 40 opposition figures for vague charges of conspiracy. With the country facing surging inflation, food shortages, and mass emigration, Tunisia’s one-man rule is accelerating the collapse of its institutions and testing the patience of a once-hopeful public.

5️⃣ 🇳🇬 Ethnic tensions, insurgency, and banditry drive widespread violence in Nigeria: Over 110 were killed in Plateau state between late March and mid-April as herder-farmer clashes surged, with Benue state recording at least 114 deaths in similar violence. In Borno, resurgent jihadist attacks by Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province killed over 60 people in April, prompting warnings from the governor about territorial losses. In the North West, Zamfara and Kebbi states have seen intensified banditry and jihadist activity this week, including mass abductions and retaliatory killings. Two emerging extremist groups, Lakurawa and Mahmuda, escalated assaults in Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara, raising concerns of widening insecurity.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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