Good evening from Australia!

For this week’s midweek special we visit the Central American country of El Salvador which has been making global headlines due to its somewhat eccentric leader 🇸🇻

Crime is down, his approval is high! But is it really all sunshine and tic tack in a country with a troubled past?

Find out below ⤵️

The ‘World’s Coolest Dictator?’

In early May, El Salvador's Congress—dominated by the charismatic President Nayib Bukele's New Ideas party—passed an amendment to a constitutional article streamlining the process for broader constitutional changes without the need to await the election of a new legislature. He has also shocked his executive branch with an announcement that all members of cabinet will be investigated for corruption, both "retroactively and into the future.”

These moves amplify the concentration of power within the populist strongman’s administration, prompting Salvadoran jurists, political analysts, and activists to voice concerns of democratic backsliding.

Since assuming office in February 2019, President Bukele has strategically centred his political persona around addressing the gang violence and corruption that has persistently plagued El Salvador. At face value, his administration's concerted efforts in combating crime have yielded impressive results, drawing global recognition and achieving remarkable domestic approval ratings. His success has tangibly bolstered public trust in Salvadoran institutions, including the police, armed forces, congress, and judicial bodies.

For this, Bukele enjoys ardent support. Salvadorans credit Bukele with restoring security to a country that once had some of the highest homicide rates in the world, as his government constrains the criminal gangs that previously wielded disproportionate power over the nation's poorest neighbourhoods through violence and extortion.

However, beneath his broad approval lies a darker side. In March 2022, Bukele implemented a "state of exception," leading to the arrest of approximately 75,000 individuals—over 1% of El Salvador’s population—largely without clear charges or access to legal representation and due process. Detainees are routinely held for extended periods without explanation, and there is still no discernable government policy for terms of eventual release. Amidst the thousands of individuals arbitrarily arrested during his anti-gang campaign, human rights groups have levelled accusations against Bukele's administration, alleging widespread human rights abuses.

What has become clear, some would say, is that Bukele is accountable to no-one. Disregarding constitutional bans on consecutive re-elections, he has pursued office again and has utilised emergency decrees to detain human rights defenders and censor journalists critical of his regime.

February 2024 Elections

On February 4, 2024, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador celebrated a resounding electoral triumph, securing over 80 percent of the presidential vote, while his nearest competitor received less than 10 percent. However, the victory was marred by irregularities. Four days after the vote, authorities were still hand-counting ballots amidst power outages and technical glitches.

While Bukele's landslide majority in the presidential election was clear, the supermajority his party achieved in Congress—which would effectively grant him unchecked power—is dubious. Bukele has boldly embraced authoritarian labels, even referring to himself as 'the world’s coolest dictator' on one occasion. On election night, he declared, "We are not substituting democracy because El Salvador has never had democracy."

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Cabinet Corruption Allegations & Democratic backsliding

"The opposition was pulverised," Bukele remarked in a post-election speech. And pulverised they have been. As detailed by Central American news outlet El Faro, Bukele’s crusade against corruption is actually intended to subdue political opponents, and ‘guarantee loyalty and control over subordinates, who fear they will be next.’ 

To truly combat corruption, it's essential to reinforce foundational principles such as the rule of law, independence from the judiciary, and transparency from the executive. El Faro contends that what we're seeing in El Salvador is not a sincere effort to tackle corruption, and argues that the Bukele administration has systematically undermined and obstructed these pillars over the past half-decade.

In a January interview with the Associated Press, Bukele's vice president did not rule out the possibility of the leader seeking a third term if the constitution were to be changed.

So what does this mean for El Salvador’s future? According to Rosa Romero of the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA), “This is a shot to the democracy of our country. The only thing they are demonstrating is the petty interests and ambition to maintain and not let go of power," 

Salvadoran constitutionalist Bertrand Galindo told local television, “With a majority of that level, he can do, by this means of approval and ratification, anything.” 

Independent Political Analyst Carlos Araujo said, "What we are in is a retreat from the democratic advances established by the peace agreements [of 1992, which ended a 12-year civil war]. A reform like this represents a setback because it takes away from the [the people’s] possibility to influence the constitutional reform process and leaves it in the hands of a political group to transform the state."

What next?

Amnesty’s Americas director Ana Piquer called upon the international community to respond to El Salvador’s precariously backtracking democracy, stating that “Reducing gang violence by replacing it with state violence cannot be a success.” Piquer further commented that Bukele had created a "false illusion" by suggesting he had discovered "the magic formula to solve the very complex problems of violence and criminality in a seemingly simple way."

Does Bukele's compromise of human rights and sacrifice of democracy justify the public’s increased sense of security? At this stage, to the vast majority of Salvadorans—particularly for the socioeconomically disadvantaged—it does. However, the risk lies in the fact that once a leader accumulates too much power, they often take more liberties at the expense of their people and become increasingly reluctant to relinquish office.

Tips & Suggestions

Written by the amazing Billy Robinson.

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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