Good evening from Australia!

What’s this? A second mid-week special?! Yes indeed!

More below ⬇️

The what?

In a shocking turn of events, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash in Iran's East Azerbaijan province. The incident has thrown the country's political future into uncertainty, particularly as Iran grapples with internal dissent and regional turmoil. But what does it mean for Iran and the wider geopolitical landscape?

Background

Raisi, who was widely seen as a likely successor to the 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had a transformative yet controversial tenure since his election in 2021. Known for his hardline stance, Raisi pushed Iran towards more conservative domestic policies and heightened antagonism with the West. His presidency was marked by significant moves, including support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and a recent drone and missile attack on Israel.

Make sure to sign up for today’s sponsor - Important, Not Important ⤵️

The Immediate Impact

Following Raisi's death, Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, has been appointed as the interim president. According to the Iranian Constitution, a new presidential election must be held within 50 days. This quick turnaround comes at a challenging time for Iran, as the country is already facing severe economic sanctions, widespread protests, and low public confidence in the government.

Domestic Reactions and Implications

Domestically, Raisi's death could lead to a slight shift in the political landscape, though significant changes are unlikely. Raisi was seen as a loyalist to Khamenei, and his policies reflected the Supreme Leader's vision for Iran. The Guardian Council, which oversees elections, is expected to vet candidates stringently to ensure continuity of the conservative agenda. Potential candidates could include current acting president Mokhber or other figures from Iran's conservative factions.

The Regional and International Landscape

Raisi's presidency saw Iran taking a more assertive role in the Middle East, including improving relations with Saudi Arabia and other regional players. His death could introduce a period of instability, particularly as Iran continues to navigate its involvement in conflicts such as the war in Ukraine and its ongoing tensions with Israel. However, experts believe that Iran’s strategic direction is unlikely to change drastically, given that major policy decisions are ultimately controlled by the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

What’s Next?

The immediate future for Iran involves navigating the aftermath of Raisi’s death and preparing for a new presidential election. The conservative faction is expected to remain dominant, but the political dynamics within Iran could see some shifts as various factions vie for influence. The international community will be watching closely to see how these developments affect Iran’s regional policies and its interactions with major global powers.

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

_{(Affiliate links)}