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- 😲 What a week in geopolitics!
😲 What a week in geopolitics!
Kenyan task force to arrive in Haiti
Hello and welcome back!
Another week of intrigue in geopolitics, with the most significant news being the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. This while Israel continues its assault on Rafah despite an International Court of Justice ruling.
Let’s get into it ⤵️
Top 5 Stories
1️⃣ 🇮🇷 Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi dies: Iran is unexpectedly thrust into an unwanted election season following President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash. Amidst Iran's shadow war with Israel, nuclear aspirations, and economic struggles, Raisi’s absence leaves a power vacuum within Iran's political hierarchy, with the President previously touted as a potential successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment suggests that Raisi’s death is unlikely to prompt immediate changes domestically or within foreign policy, stating that “As long as Khamenei is alive, they’re going to stick to revolutionary ideology: death to America, death to Israel, mandatory hijab… For the people of Iran, that’s not a system that’s capable of reform. I think many people won’t vote because voting is perceived as an act of legitimation that they don’t want to do.” According to Robin Wright of the Wilson Center, the longer term impact may be an acceleration of Iran's shift towards a military dictatorship, or spell regime collapse.
2️⃣ 🇨🇩🇨🇬 Attempted coup in DR Congo: In the early hours of May 19, gunfire broke out in Kinshasa—the capital of DR Congo—as armed men attacked the Presidential Palace. According to government spokesperson Sylvain Ekenge, a second attack targeted the nearby residence of Parliament member Vital Kamerhe, with a government spokesperson reporting casualties including two guards and one attacker. Amidst the chaos, a stray shell from Kinshasa struck Brazzaville, the capital of the Republic of Congo, injuring several. Ekenge identified Christian Malanga—a US-based Congolese politician—as the leader of the coup attempt, as over 50 individuals were arrested by DRC police. The attempted coup occurred amid ongoing conflict in DRC's Kivu regions and dissatisfaction with President Tshisekedi's re-election for a second term, who has yet to form a government.
3️⃣ 🇰🇪🇭🇹 Kenyan task force to arrive in Haiti: Kenyan special forces are set to arrive in Haiti in the coming days, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warns of Haiti's risk of becoming a failed state. An initial team of Kenyan military personnel—reportedly 'seasoned from years fighting al-Shabaab in East Africa'—landed in Port-au-Prince on Monday as the airport reopened after a three-month closure due to gang violence. Reports suggest 200 more officers will join this week, coinciding with Kenyan President William Ruto's US visit. Around 1,000 Kenyan agents will eventually join the UN-backed mission, alongside a supporting multinational task force. Despite this, Haiti's national police have expressed frustration over the mission diverting resources from their efforts to tackle gang control. Opposition politicians in Kenya have also criticised the decision, deeming it a 'death trap'.
4️⃣ 🇲🇲 45’000 flee Myanmar in latest surge of violence: Amid escalating violence in Myanmar's Rakhine State, an additional 45,000 Rohingya minorities have been displaced, according to the United Nations. Allegations of atrocities—including beheadings and property destruction—have emerged, prompting UN rights chief Volker Turk to urge Bangladesh and other bordering states to provide adequate protection to the newly arrived refugees. The clashes stem from the Arakan Army's (AA) rebellion against the ruling military government since November, following the breakdown of a ceasefire established after the 2021 coup. Caught in the crossfire are the Rohingya Muslims, historically marginalised by the Buddhist majority. The AA seeks greater autonomy for the ethnic Rakhine, complicating the situation for the Rohingya, many of whom remain in Myanmar despite past persecution.
5️⃣ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Latest round of bombing in Kharkiv: Local authorities in Kharkiv reported that two missiles struck a hardware market as part of a renewed Russian assault on the city. Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attack, stating that it targeted civilian infrastructure rather than military targets. This incident underscores the ongoing conflict's toll on civilians, despite Russian claims to the contrary. In the aftermath, Zelenskyy and regional governor Oleh Syniehubov reiterated the urgent need for Western allies to provide additional air defence systems to protect Kharkiv.
Major Story
🇮🇱🇵🇸 ICJ demands that israel ceases Rafah assault, while ICC moves against top Israel and Hamas officials
This week saw significant developments regarding Israel-Palestine in the world's two primary judicial institutions: the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the principal legal body of the United Nations tasked with resolving disputes between states, and the International Criminal Court (ICC), which prosecutes individuals accused of violating international law, often resulting in criminal convictions and imprisonment.
On May 20th, Karim Khan, the prosecutor of the ICC, declared that he possesses "reasonable grounds to believe" that high-ranking leaders from both Hamas and Israel have been involved in a series of war crimes and crimes against humanity since October 7, 2023. He further stated his intention to seek warrants for their arrest.
Days later, The ICJ has ruled that Israel must immediately halt its offensive in Rafah and allow unimpeded access to investigate allegations of genocide.
The ICC
Khan stated his intention to submit an application to the Court’s pretrial chamber for warrants for Yahya Sinwar (leader of Hamas in Gaza), Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri (known as Deif, commander of Hamas’ military wing), and Ismail Haniyeh (leader of Hamas’ political bureau). On the Israeli side, he mentioned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Khan clarified that the application did not allege direct involvement in crimes by these leaders but rather held them accountable under international criminal law doctrines of co-perpetration and command responsibility.
While Khan had previously hinted at seeking warrants due to concerns about humanitarian aid restrictions in Gaza violating international law, the timing of the announcement surprised Israeli and U.S. officials. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the warrant applications, emphasising the U.S. stance that the court lacks jurisdiction over the matter. President Joe Biden and members of Congress also expressed outrage, criticising the ‘false equivalence’ between the Israeli government and Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu likened the prosecutor to Nazi-era German judges.
In contrast, European state parties to the Court generally offered supportive statements, although Central European states Hungary, Austria, and the Czechia, expressed dissent. South Africa welcomed the prosecutor's decision.
The prosecutor's office indicated ongoing work, suggesting that the allegations made public on May 20 could be expanded further down the line. These allegations cover various acts, primarily the decision to deprive Palestinians in Gaza of food and essential items, in addition to violent acts committed by Hamas during October 7. The Rome Statute allows for charges of genocide, although proving such charges requires demonstrating specific intent.
The ICJ
The ICJ judges have issued a ruling demanding Israel to cease its offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah and withdraw from the enclave. This decision comes in response to a case brought by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide, citing the "immense risk" posed to the Palestinian population. Friday's ruling marks the third time this year that the 15-judge panel, voting 13 to 2, has issued preliminary orders aimed at reducing the death toll and alleviating humanitarian suffering in Gaza. Although these orders are legally binding, the court lacks the means to enforce them as it does not have its own police force.
ICJ President Nawaf Salam stated that the provisional measures issued by the court in March were insufficient to address the current situation in the besieged Palestinian enclave. As conditions warranted urgent action, the ICJ ordered Israel to immediately cease its military offensive in the Rafah Governorate, which poses a grave risk to the Palestinian population in Gaza.
President Salam described the humanitarian situation in Rafah as "disastrous" and emphasised the need for swift intervention. Additionally, the ICJ mandated Israel to provide a report on its progress in implementing the measures ordered by the court within one month.
While ICJ rulings are legally binding, they have been disregarded in the past: Israel has consistently rejected accusations of genocide, asserting that its actions in Gaza are defensive measures aimed at deterring Hamas. In a notable ruling earlier this year, the court instructed Israel to take all necessary measures to prevent genocidal acts in Gaza, although it did not mandate a cessation of hostilities.
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Other News
🇨🇳 China's forced relocation of Tibetans: A May Human Rights Watch report found that since 2016, the Chinese government has drastically accelerated the relocation of rural Tibetans, justified by government officials as 'voluntary and beneficial,' while an examination of over 1,000 Chinese media reports reveals coercion and dissent. Officials employed various tactics, including repeated visits, threats, and the withholding of essential services. Over 930,000 Tibetans have been relocated since 2000, with 76% of these relocations occurring since 2016. Additionally, 3.36 million were affected by other programs, impacting the majority of rural Tibetans. These actions contravene international law, which prohibits forced evictions without legal protection.
🇳🇴🇮🇪🇪🇸🇵🇸 Norway recognises Palestine: Norway becomes the most recent EU state to declare formal recognition of Palestinian statehood based on pre-1967 borders, following the Republic of Ireland and Spain. This move drew positive reactions from the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, but prompted Israel to withdraw its ambassadors from Oslo, Dublin, and Madrid, and to summon representatives from these countries to Tel Aviv. Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store emphasised Norway's support for "moderate forces that are on a retreating front" in the conflict, stating that this recognition aligns with the goal of achieving peace through a two-state solution. Analysts view this decision as symbolic of the failure of the Oslo Accords, the Norway-facilitated peace process of the early 1990s between the PLO and Israel that ultimately failed.
What Went Under the Radar?
🇰🇪🇺🇸 Kenyan President Ruto visits the US: President William Ruto's state visit to the U.S., which commenced on May 23, holds significant importance not just for Kenya but for the entirety of East Africa, particularly amidst ongoing political and economic turbulence in the region. With the U.S. increasingly relying on Kenya as a key partner in security, diplomacy, and economy in the Horn of Africa and beyond, Ruto aims to strengthen Kenya's regional standing and attract U.S. investment amid economic challenges. The U.S., in turn, sees the visit as an opportunity to reaffirm its commitment to Africa amidst competition with China and Russia. President Biden hopes the visit signals ongoing U.S. engagement in Africa, similar to state visits accorded to leaders of other nations during his presidency.
Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones
1️⃣ 🇿🇦 South Africa elections: South Africans are preparing for pivotal general elections scheduled for May 29, potentially marking a significant shift as the ruling African National Congress (ANC) faces the prospect of losing its majority for the first time in three decades. Incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa of the ANC seeks to maintain his presidency amidst competition from other political figures, including Jacob Zuma of the MK party, who has been legally barred from running for South African parliament. Additionally, Julius Malema of the radical anti-establishment EFF party and the DA party's John Steenhuisen, who vows to "rescue South Africa" from the ANC, are prominent contenders in the electoral landscape.
Quote of the Week:
🗣️ “The source of every crime is some defect of the understanding; or some error in reasoning; or some sudden force of the passions. Defect in the understanding is ignorance; in reasoning, erroneous opinion.” ― Thomas Hobbes
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