Hello and welcome back,

The first week of 2026 has proven an explosive week in geopolitics!

This edition covers rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Western airstrikes in Syria, unrest and escalation involving Iran, fragmentation in Yemen, and a dramatic U.S. intervention in Venezuela.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳🇹🇼 Xi vows Taiwan reunification after China drills: Chinese President Xi Jinping said reunification with Taiwan was “unstoppable” in his New Year’s Eve address, delivered a day after large-scale PLA live-fire drills involving air, naval, missile and coastguard forces around the island. Several governments criticised the exercises, while Beijing rejected the criticism and blamed separatism and external support for tensions.

2️⃣ 🇹🇼🇨🇳 Taiwan leader responds by pledging defence of sovereignty: Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said he would safeguard national sovereignty, strengthen defence and build deterrence mechanisms following the drills, as China reiterated its claim over Taiwan and described annexation as inevitable. The United States criticised the exercises for raising regional tensions and urged dialogue.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇸🇾 UK and France strike Islamic State site in Syria: British and French aircraft carried out a joint airstrike on an underground Islamic State facility near Palmyra in central Syria, using guided bombs to hit tunnel access points, the UK Ministry of Defence said. The strike, conducted on Saturday evening, was intended to eliminate what officials described as dangerous militants occupying the site.

4️⃣ 🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱 Iran president says country is at war with West and Israel: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is in a “full-fledged war” with the United States, Israel and Europe, accusing them of seeking to weaken the country through military action and pressure. His remarks followed U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, renewed sanctions, and came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared to visit Washington, while U.S. and Israeli officials did not comment.

5️⃣ 🇾🇪 Yemen separatists announce plan for southern independence: Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council unveiled a constitution for a proposed “State of South Arabia” and said it would hold a referendum on independence after a two-year period, though it was unclear whether the move could be implemented or was symbolic. The announcement followed recent clashes with Saudi-backed forces, Saudi airstrikes on STC positions, and renewed tensions within the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis.

Major Story

🇻🇪🇺🇸 U.S. strikes Venezuela; Maduro taken to New York:

The United States launched a large-scale military operation in Venezuela on Saturday, carrying out air strikes on sites around Caracas before capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.

Maduro was flown to New York and taken into federal custody, where he is expected to face U.S. charges linked to drug trafficking and alleged ties to armed groups designated as terrorist organisations, which he denies.

President Donald Trump said the United States would temporarily “run” Venezuela during a transition period and move to restore oil production, while U.S. officials described the operation as successful and said there were no American fatalities.

Venezuela’s Supreme Court appointed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume presidential powers in Maduro’s absence, as she condemned the operation and called for his release.

The intervention prompted mixed reactions, including celebrations among some Venezuelan expatriates, reports of fear and disruption inside Venezuela, criticism from international figures and human rights groups, and moves at the United Nations to address the escalation.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇫🇮🇪🇪 Finland seizes ship over Baltic cable damage: Finnish police seized the cargo vessel Fitburg, travelling from Russia to Israel, on suspicion of damaging an undersea telecommunications cable between Helsinki and Tallinn, and are holding 14 crew members as part of an investigation. Authorities said the ship had been dragging its anchor and are probing the incident as aggravated criminal damage and interference with telecommunications, while Estonia reported a separate cable outage whose cause was unclear.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱🇸🇴 Governments reject Israel’s recognition of Somaliland: Multiple countries including Jordan, Qatar and Algeria, along with the African Union and the European Union, rejected Israel’s decision to recognise Somaliland as independent, reaffirming Somalia’s territorial integrity and calling for dialogue. The United States said it continues to recognise Somalia’s sovereignty, while Qatar described the move as violating international law and Israel confirmed it signed a declaration with Somaliland under the Abraham Accords framework.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran condemns Trump warning amid deadly protests: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi called President Donald Trump’s warning of U.S. intervention if peaceful protesters are killed “reckless and dangerous,” saying Iran would reject any foreign interference and that its forces were on standby. At least eight deaths were reported during week-long protests over economic conditions, though casualty details varied by source and could not be independently verified, while the EU urged restraint and respect for protest rights.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳🇮🇱 UN chief urges Israel to reverse NGO ban: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on Israel to reverse a pending ban on 37 NGOs operating in Gaza and the West Bank, saying their work is essential to life-saving aid and that the suspension risks undermining ceasefire progress. Israel said the ban, set to take effect on March 1, is due to groups not meeting new registration requirements, while aid organisations warned the rules could endanger staff and hinder humanitarian operations.

5️⃣ 🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸 Ukraine, Europe discuss US-led peace plan in Kyiv: Ukrainian and European national security advisers met in Kyiv to discuss a U.S.-led 20-point peace plan to end Russia’s war, with Canada and NATO representatives also attending, according to Ukrainian officials. Talks covered security guarantees, reconstruction and economic support, including a proposed €682bn international assistance package over 10 years, while Ukraine said preparations were underway for further meetings in the United States.

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Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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