A week of sanctions on Russia and absolute meltdown in the UK Parliament. What more did you expect from 2024?

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇮🇱 Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has outlined a post-war plan for Gaza, insisting on Israel's security control over Palestinian territories and linking Gaza's reconstruction to its demilitarization, a move dismissed by Palestinian officials as doomed. The proposal comes amid escalating international efforts to end the conflict, with truce talks underway in Paris in a significant push to resolve the weeks-long hostilities. This plan, signaling a hardline stance, faces widespread condemnation and highlights the deep divisions obstructing the path to peace in the region.

2️⃣🇬🇧 UK: A chaotic session in the UK Parliament over a Gaza ceasefire vote led to widespread criticism of Speaker Lindsay Hoyle, with walkouts by SNP and Conservative MPs. The controversy arose from Hoyle's decision to allow a Labour amendment aimed at avoiding internal conflict over the party's stance on Gaza, deviating from usual parliamentary procedures and sparking accusations of bias. The incident, culminating in Hoyle's apology, reflects deep divisions within UK politics over the Gaza conflict and has led to a proposed motion of no confidence against him.

3️⃣🇮🇹🇨🇦 Ukraine: Italy's Giorgia Meloni and Canada's Justin Trudeau have signed security pacts with Ukraine, bolstering Kyiv amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. The agreements, signed during a visit that marked the second anniversary of Russia's invasion, underscore international support for Ukraine, with Trudeau also pledging substantial financial and military aid. Despite Ukraine's battlefield struggles and a global concern of waning interest in the conflict, the presence of European leaders in Kyiv sends a strong message of solidarity, as ordinary Ukrainians brace for a prolonged war.

4️⃣🇺🇸🇬🇧🇾🇪 In a significant escalation, US and British forces, with support from Australia and other allies, have launched additional strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, targeting 18 sites including weapons storage, air defense systems, and a helicopter. This action marks the fourth combined operation against the Houthis since January, aimed at disrupting their capability to threaten global trade and maritime security in the Red Sea. Despite these efforts, Houthi attacks on shipping continue, linked to their opposition to Israel's actions in Gaza. The strikes come amid concerns of an environmental crisis in the Red Sea due to a leaking vessel, highlighting the broader impact of the conflict on global trade and environmental safety.

5️⃣🇺🇸 South Carolina: Donald Trump has decisively defeated Nikki Haley in South Carolina's Republican primary, continuing his dominant run toward a third presidential nomination. Despite facing numerous criminal charges, Trump's victory in Haley's home state, where she served as governor, underscores his unchallenged position within the Republican Party. Haley, persisting in her campaign through Super Tuesday, challenges Trump's ability to beat Joe Biden, citing Republican unease with Trump's candidacy. Trump's campaign, focusing on immigration and confronting economic dissatisfaction, faces the backdrop of his upcoming criminal trials. Yet, his unwavering support within the party suggests a deep-seated loyalty, overshadowing concerns about his eligibility amid legal challenges.

Major Story

In a move that has reverberated across the globe, the United States, in collaboration with the European Union, has unveiled a comprehensive new wave of sanctions against Russia, escalating the international response to Moscow's ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the controversial death of opposition figure Alexei Navalny. This latest round of punitive measures targets a broad spectrum of Russian interests, from its main card payment system to key financial and military institutions, along with a slew of officials directly implicated in Navalny's imprisonment.

At the heart of this sanction package is the targeting of Mir, Russia's principal payment system, which gained prominence as Visa and Mastercard suspended their services in the country. This move signifies a significant escalation in the financial warfare aimed at curtailing Russia's economic resilience amidst its military endeavors. Furthermore, the sanctions extend to companies critical to Russia's war effort and future energy production, particularly those involved in collaborations with Iran over drone technologies. In a display of international cooperation, entities and individuals across China, the UAE, Vietnam, and even Liechtenstein find themselves ensnared in the sanctions net, accused of aiding Russia's military machine through material support.

Despite the sweeping nature of these sanctions, skepticism abounds regarding their potential impact. Russia, already the world's most sanctioned nation, has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to adapt, circumventing previous sanctions with innovative workarounds. This resilience raises critical questions about the efficacy of further isolating an economy that has, paradoxically, shown signs of growth despite the international community's efforts to stymie it.

President Joe Biden's administration, in announcing these sanctions, has positioned them as a direct response to Russia's hostility towards Ukraine and the repression within its borders. With over 4,000 entities now bearing the weight of international sanctions, the U.S. and its allies aim to levy an unprecedented cost on Putin's government for its external aggression and internal crackdowns. However, the path forward remains fraught with challenges, as the Biden administration acknowledges the need for greater legal authority and international cooperation to tighten the noose around the Russian economy further.

The European Union has concurrently announced its 13th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting nearly 200 entities implicated in weapon procurement and the alleged abduction of Ukrainian children.

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Other News

1️⃣🇦🇷 Argentina: Markets are increasingly betting on President Javier Milei's tough economic reforms, as he enacts austerity measures aiming to revitalize the nation's struggling economy. Since taking office, Milei's policies have led to Argentina posting its first monthly fiscal surplus in over a decade, a significant achievement given the country's history of financial crises. These measures have buoyed investor confidence, pushing some Argentine bonds to four-year highs and reducing the country's risk index to its lowest point since 2022. Despite the economic hardship and rising protests, the government's commitment to slashing spending and bolstering dollar reserves has sparked optimism about Milei's capability to stabilize the economy and potentially ease the severe poverty levels, which studies suggest are nearing 60%.

2️⃣🇺🇸🇮🇱 The US has reversed a Trump-era policy by declaring new Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories illegal and "inconsistent with international law," a move that counters the 2019 Pompeo Doctrine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized the planned expansion of over 3,300 settlement units, highlighting a return to long-standing US opposition to such settlements. Despite the strong stance, no specific consequences for Israel's expansion were mentioned, leaving the impact of the US's renewed position uncertain amidst ongoing tensions in the region.

3️⃣🇺🇦 Ukraine: On the second anniversary of Russia's invasion, President Volodymyr Zelensky has delivered a defiant message, asserting Ukraine will achieve victory on its terms, emphasizing the pursuit of a "fair peace." Despite recent military setbacks and challenges in securing continued aid, the resolve among Ukrainians and their international supporters remains unshaken, with widespread demonstrations across Europe backing Ukraine's fight for sovereignty.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇺🇸🇨🇳 The United States and China are set to negotiate a framework for responsible AI development, addressing global concerns around AI's potential risks, including its impact on democracy and the military. Amid competitive advancements, these talks aim to establish common ground on AI safety and regulations, emphasizing the need for cooperation despite differing national strategies. The discussions signify a critical step towards managing AI's expansive influence responsibly. A much needed development.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🌐 The World Trade Organisation (WTO) Ministerial Conference, set for 26-29 February 2024 in Abu Dhabi, UAE, is the premier decision-making assembly, convening biennially. This conference will unite all WTO members, which include countries and customs unions, to deliberate and decide on issues across all multilateral trade agreements.

2️⃣🌎 The G20 finance ministers and central bankers' meeting is scheduled for 28-29 February 2024 in São Paulo, Brazil, focusing on crucial economic issues such as elevated interest rates and ongoing cost of living pressures.

3️⃣🗳️ Iran's legislative elections are set for 1 March 2024, marking the first electoral process since the 2022 protests. This election could see political unrest, particularly from moderates and reformists who have been marginalized by the authorities, potentially organizing in the lead-up to the election day.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "To improve is to change, so to be perfect is to have changed often." - Winston Churchill

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

As we settle into the rhythm of our newsletter, we're looking to evolve based on what you want to read most. We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected].