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This week, the geopolitical landscape continues to shift dramatically. The UK debates a risky new mission in Gaza, while Amnesty International critiques its global human rights stance. New Zealand redefines its alliances, moving away from traditional partners towards the U.S. In Ukraine, a strategic shift targets Russian oil refineries, and China steps into the spotlight by hosting critical Palestinian unity talks.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇺🇦 Ukraine: The conflict intensifies as Russian missiles target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, damaging thermal power plants and disrupting the power grid in several regions. In retaliation, Ukraine escalates drone attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities, aiming to weaken Russia’s economic backbone. Amidst global concerns about energy prices, the U.S. urges Ukraine to focus on tactical targets, while NATO supports Ukraine’s right to defend itself by targeting military assets.

2️⃣🇨🇳 China will host Palestinian “unity talks” involving Hamas and Fatah, further entering into the diplomatic fray as tensions in the Middle East continue to simmer. This will mark the first time a Hamas representative has set foot in China since the beginning of the War in Gaza, and follows a trend of ramped up advocacy for Gaza by China in recent months. China continues to develop strong ties to Arab nations, often those without allegiance to their traditional Western rivals.

3️⃣🇬🇧 The UK's defence ministry is considering sending troops to Gaza to distribute aid from a US-built floating pier. The mission involves significant risks, including potential violence in an active combat zone. The plan has not yet been formally proposed to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

4️⃣🇳🇿 New Zealand: Driven by Beijing's assertive tactics, New Zealand has pivoted closer to the U.S., culminating in recent strategic meetings between New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. This shift marks a significant realignment in Wellington's foreign policy, moving away from a China-friendly approach to strengthening ties with Western allies, evidenced by New Zealand's active participation in NATO summits and new defense strategies. The move aligns with broader Indo-Pacific concerns over China's growing influence, prompting New Zealand to deepen its engagement with initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and the AUKUS security pact.

5️⃣🇬🇧 UK: In its annual Human Rights report, Amnesty International has condemned the UK for “deliberately destabilising” human rights globally to maintain its own political position. The report has cited new government policies targeting migrants, refugees, and protestors. It has also condemned the UK’ failure to use its position on the UN Security Council to prevent Human rights violations in Gaza whilst providing arms to Israel, although this element of the report widely criticised all of Israel’s allies. 

Major Story

Senate and House Greenlight $95 Billion Aid Package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan

In a watershed moment, the Senate has endorsed a $95 billion aid package earmarked for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Buoyed by resounding bipartisan support, the bill now awaits President Joe Biden's imminent signature. The Senate's decisive 79-18 vote echoes the earlier endorsement by the House of Representatives. In a notable addendum, the bill mandates TikTok's separation from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, within nine months, under threat of a US ban.

This decision holds profound domestic political implications for President Biden, particularly with the presidential election looming. It strategically aligns with key voter blocs, including steadfast backers of Israel and Ukraine, as well as advocates for bolstering securitisation efforts against China.

Chuck Schumer, addressing the Senate on Tuesday, proclaimed, "Today, the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world: America will always defend democracy in its hour of need." He continued, "Make no mistake, America will deliver on its promise to act as a stalwart leader on the world stage, steadfastly resisting autocratic figures like Vladimir Putin."

Amidst the deepening crisis in Gaza, where more than 2 million people face the specter of famine and the discovery of 300 bodies found in mass graves near Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, the Israel-related provisions of the bill has prompted significant backlash, with critics arguing that it risks exacerbating conflict rather than fostering avenues for dialogue diplomacy or de-escalation efforts. Meanwhile, across a number of U.S. college campuses – such as Columbia, Northeastern, and Ohio State – anti-war student protests have broken out en masse.

US Senator Bernie Sanders condemned the approval of the supplemental foreign funding bill, labeling it a "dark day" for the US Senate, asserting that Washington should not be financing the war efforts of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

President Joe Biden said, “My commitment to Israel, I want to make clear again, is ironclad… The security of Israel is critical. I will always make sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself against Iran and terrorists who it supports.”

Al-Jazeera broke down the figures, finding that the foreign aid package allocates the lion’s share to Ukraine, approximately $60.84 billion, with Israel receiving $26.38 billion, including $9.1 billion for humanitarian assistance. Additionally, the bill allocates $8.12 billion to strengthen the Indo-Pacific region, including support for Taiwan.

For Ukraine, $23 billion is dedicated to replenishing US weapons, stocks, and facilities, while an additional $14 billion is allocated to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, overseen by the US Department of State, aimed at bolstering military training and equipment provision. Furthermore, over $11 billion is set aside to fund ongoing US military operations in the region, enhance the capabilities of the Ukrainian military, and foster intelligence collaboration between Kyiv and Washington. $8 billion is also tagged for non-military assistance, including crucial support for Ukraine's government to cover salaries.

The aid package for Israel delineates an allocation of $5.2 billion for replenishing and expanding Israel's missile and rocket defense system. $3.5 billion is set aside for purchasing advanced weapons systems, with an additional $1 billion allocated to enhance weapons production capabilities. Furthermore, $4.4 billion is set aside for providing other essential supplies and services to Israel, whilst the final $9.2 billion is dedicated to humanitarian efforts in the Gaza strip.

Following the bill's passage, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense expressed sincere appreciation to the US House for its steadfast support, lauding it as "rock solid." The ministry affirmed its dedication to aligning budgetary priorities with the United States through existing exchange mechanisms. Moreover, it vowed to redouble efforts in enhancing combat readiness capabilities, with a clear mission to uphold national security and foster peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Promotion

Again, we’re recommending Tim Marshall's "Prisoners of Geography" as a foundational book for anyone looking to acquire an understanding of geopolitics.

You can get the book here (affiliate):

🇺🇸 Link

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Other News

1️⃣🇷🇺 Russia has arrested two journalists who worked under international news outlets. Both Sergei Karelin and Konstantin Gabov have been detained under allegations of “extremism” due to their alignment with recently deceased Alexei Navalny, the former main political opposition to Vladimir Putin. Both men are accused of producing videos in support of Navalny to be posted on YouTube whilst working for Navalny’s foundation. Both allegations are denied.

2️⃣🇺🇦 Ukraine's military situation has deteriorated, with troops withdrawing from key positions in Donetsk due to increased Russian attacks. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported tactical Russian gains and mentioned that Ukraine is awaiting new US military aid, which includes crucial supplies like Patriot missiles. Amid these challenges, Ukraine is rotating its forces to sustain its defense efforts.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇹🇿 Tanzania: The World Bank has suspended Tanzania, following damning reports of abuse, forced displacement and killings surrounding the expansion of Ruaha National Park. Under the World Bank’s Regrow project, Tanzania has received USD $100M in funding, targeting the development of roads, visitor centers and increased wildlife monitoring and security, to promote tourism and economic growth. An additional $50M in funding has been cancelled. A range of abuse from Tanzanian authorities has been documented towards villagers living adjacent to the park as expansion took place.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇮🇱🇵🇸 ICC to move against Israel? According to Tamir Morag of Israel's channel 14, the Knesset has received news that indictments from the International Criminal Court (ICC) will soon target the highest echelons of the Israeli government and Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The individuals implicated include Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, and Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi. While the ICC lacks the authority to make arrests, court members are obligated to surrender individuals with active warrants against them. As this developing story unfolds amid widespread speculation, many anticipate warrants will also extend to Hamas's political bureau chairman Ismail Haniyeh, Gaza strip senior official Yahya Sinwar, in addition to Mohammed Deif, Head of Hamas's al-Qassam brigade.

2️⃣🇸🇦🇮🇱🇵🇸 Concerns of an Israeli assault on Rafah are voiced in Riyadh: At the World Economic Forum summit in Riyadh, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas says that he ‘expects an Israeli assault on Rafah to commence in the next few days.’ On April 28, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud, convened a meeting in Riyadh with representatives from six Arab countries. They reiterated their calls for an end to Israel's military offensive in Gaza and vehemently opposed Israel's planned assault on Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed." - Mao Zedong

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

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Diligently written by William Robinson and Joe Foote once again.