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🗞️ Uganda threatens DRC Intervention

🗞️ Uganda threatens DRC Intervention

and Bolsonaro charged

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
February 23, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

This week, transatlantic relations and Europe’s security dilemma take centre stage as German Chancellor Scholz rebukes J.D. Vance’s remarks on U.S. interference in European democracies. Meanwhile, Washington pressures Zelenskyy to resume negotiations over a critical minerals deal.

Elsewhere, conflicts escalate in the Great Lakes region, Sudan, and Ukraine, while former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces charges of attempting a coup d’état.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇬 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Uganda threatens to intervene in Eastern DRC, Bukavu falls to M23: Uganda’s military chief, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has threatened to seize the eastern Congolese town of Bunia unless “all forces” there surrender within 24 hours. His warning comes as Rwanda–backed M23 rebels have captured Bukavu, the region’s second-largest city, according to the Congolese government. Without providing evidence, Kainerugaba claimed that members of the Bahima ethnic group were being targeted in Congo, vowing retaliation. “No one on this earth can kill my people and think he will not suffer for it!” he wrote, later declaring that “Bunia will soon be in UPDF hands.” Congolese Prime Minister Judith Suminwa declined to comment, but Kainerugaba’s remarks have heightened fears that the ongoing conflict between Congolese forces and M23 rebels could escalate into a broader regional war.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 U.S. demands Zelenskyy return to talks over critical minerals deal: The Trump administration is pressuring Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to grant U.S. firms access to Ukraine’s vast mineral resources, a demand that has fueled growing tensions between the two leaders. Zelenskyy rejected the initial proposal, calling it an ultimatum without security guarantees, while Trump countered by branding him a dictator. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent personally pressed Zelenskyy to sign the deal, warning of consequences from Washington, but Zelenskyy remained noncommittal. As U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh proceed without Ukrainian involvement, concerns are mounting over Kyiv’s diminishing leverage, especially as Trump signals a potential shift in U.S. support. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly exploring ways to exploit the rift by offering American companies rights to mineral deposits in occupied Ukraine.

3️⃣ 🇿🇦 Lavrov in attendance, Rubio absent, as G20 leaders convene in Johannesburg: The G20 foreign ministers convene in South Africa for a two-day summit, with discussions expected to focus on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. However, nations from the Global South—including Brazil, India, and South Africa—are pushing for reforms in global governance, stronger climate action, and more equitable economic development. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa urged member states to uphold multilateralism and diplomatic solutions, warning that geopolitical tensions, climate change, and economic instability threaten global cooperation. The absence of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlights a growing rift between Washington and its allies, as President Trump’s foreign policy shifts challenge transatlantic unity. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s presence underscores Moscow’s efforts to strengthen ties with Global South nations, while China seizes the opportunity to expand its influence amid U.S. disengagement.

4️⃣ 🇧🇷 Brazil to join OPEC+, faces criticism as COP30 host: Brazil has approved its entry into OPEC+, marking its rise as a major oil player just months before hosting the UN’s COP30 climate summit. While Brazil will participate in discussions under the Charter of Cooperation, it will not be bound by production cuts, Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira confirmed. President Lula da Silva has balanced environmental efforts, such as curbing Amazon deforestation, with expanding oil production to fund a green energy transition. However, his push for exploratory drilling near the Amazon River has drawn criticism, particularly as Brazil, now the world’s seventh-largest oil producer, sees crude oil surpass soy as its top export—complicating its position ahead of climate negotiations focused on reducing fossil fuel dependence.

5️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Scholz rebukes Vance’s comments on interference in European democracies: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz firmly rejected U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s call to end political “firewalls” against Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, condemning foreign interference in domestic democracy. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Scholz emphasized that backing the AfD contradicts Germany’s historical lessons and criticized the Trump administration’s support for the party as inappropriate among allies. Vance, who met with AfD candidate Alice Weidel but not Scholz, attacked European establishment politics and likened EU leaders to Soviet commissars while urging a tougher stance on migration. With Germany’s general election approaching on February 23, center-right frontrunner Friedrich Merz also pushed back, asserting that just as Germany respects U.S. elections, it expects the same in return.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 THE EU’S STRUGGLE FOR STRATEGIC AUTONOMY: LESSONS FROM THE UKRAINE WAR

The European Union’s attempt to achieve strategic autonomy has been undermined by a series of policy missteps, particularly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Despite EU leaders’ claims of independence, the war has exposed significant vulnerabilities, particularly the inability to act cohesively in foreign policy and defense. This commentary highlights key failures and the urgent need for Europe to reassess its approach to international relations and security.

Policy Failures and Economic Impact

The EU has imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, yet these have failed to significantly weaken Russia’s economy while crippling European industries. Energy sanctions have led to rising costs and inflation, damaging EU businesses and slowing economic growth. Germany, heavily reliant on Russian energy, has plunged into recession, with industrial giants like Bosch and 3M moving operations abroad. Meanwhile, the U.S. has capitalized on Europe’s weakened economic position, offering subsidies through the Inflation Reduction Act to encourage European industries to relocate to the U.S.

Security and Dependence on the U.S.

The war has also exposed Europe’s security vulnerabilities. NATO’s dwindling stockpiles of military equipment and low manufacturing capacity for essential artillery have left European nations ill-prepared for prolonged conflict. Meanwhile, the re-election of Donald Trump threatens to further strain transatlantic relations, as the U.S. demands higher contributions from European NATO members and signals a reduced role in Ukraine’s defense.

Path Forward for the EU

To secure its future, Europe must prioritize its own economic and strategic interests, writes analyst William J. Jones.. This includes re-engaging with Russia diplomatically, recalibrating sanctions, and placing greater emphasis on internal economic policies. Without swift action, Europe risks becoming further dependent on external powers, relegating itself to a secondary role in global geopolitics.

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1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 U.S., Russian delegations meet in Riyadh: Senior U.S. and Russian officials held a four-hour meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss ending the war in Ukraine and laying the groundwork for a potential Trump-Putin summit. The talks, led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, sparked concerns in Kyiv, where Ukrainian leaders fear negotiations taking place without their involvement. Russian diplomat Yuri Ushakov described the discussions as productive, noting that both sides agreed to begin formal talks on a peace deal. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky postponed a planned visit to Saudi Arabia, citing concerns over the optics of engaging with Riyadh immediately after the U.S.-Russia talks. As diplomatic efforts intensify, the U.S. has pledged to consult Ukraine and its European allies before proceeding further.

2️⃣ 🇩🇯 🇪🇹 Djibouti’s foreign minister elected as head of African Union: Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf has been elected as the next chair of the African Union Commission, defeating Kenya’s Raila Odinga and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato in a vote at the AU summit in Addis Ababa. Youssouf, who has served as Djibouti’s foreign minister since 2005, will replace Chad’s Moussa Faki and lead the AU’s 55-member secretariat for the next four years. His tenure comes at a critical time, with military coups destabilising West Africa and escalating conflict in eastern DRC. AU has often faced criticism for its limited response to such crises, and Youssouf will be under pressure to enhance the bloc’s effectiveness in addressing Africa’s security challenges.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇪🇺 Time is running out to reach Iran nuclear deal, says nuclear watchdog: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, has warned that Iran is rapidly increasing its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, urging immediate action to revive nuclear negotiations. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, he revealed that Tehran’s monthly production of 60 percent enriched uranium has risen nearly sevenfold, with stockpiles expected to reach 250 kilograms by the agency’s next report. Grossi stressed the urgency of diplomatic engagement, lamenting the absence of a U.S. envoy for Iran as a key obstacle. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Massoud Pezeshkian have rejected talks with the U.S., citing Washington’s “maximum pressure” policy, while the IAEA’s Board of Governors continues to push for Iran’s full cooperation and a comprehensive report by spring.

4️⃣ 🇧🇷 Bolsonaro charged over alleged putsch: Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been formally charged with orchestrating a coup d'etat to remain in power. Attorney General Paulo Gonet accused Bolsonaro and six key allies of leading a criminal organization with an "authoritarian power project," which allegedly included plans to assassinate Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and poison President Lula da Silva. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 43 years in prison for crimes including attempted coup d’état and violent subversion of the rule of law—charges he denies. The indictment follows a federal police report linking Bolsonaro to efforts to prevent Lula from assuming office after the 2022 election, culminating in the January 8, 2023, riots in Brasília, where Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in a failed bid to overturn the election results.