Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Weekly.

This week, Ankara forms PKK disarmament commission; Bolsonaro is placed under house arrest; and major shifts unfold in Haiti, Ukraine, and Lebanon.

Our lead story turns to Taiwan, where Dr. Zheng Wang reframes the cross-Strait conflict not as a mere geopolitical contest, but as a collision of collective identities. 

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇳 M23 and Rwanda-linked forces kill hundreds of civilians as eastern DR Congo ceasefire splinters: The UN has confirmed that at least 319 civilians—among them 48 women and 19 children—were killed between 9 and 21 July in North Kivu by M23 rebels backed by Rwanda’s military. Most victims were subsistence farmers camping in their fields. UN rights chief Volker Türk condemned the surge in attacks and urged adherence to recent ceasefires signed in Washington and Doha. Despite these agreements, violence persists. Other armed groups, including the ADF, CODECO, and Raia Mutomboki/Wazalendo, continue killing civilians and perpetrating sexual violence across eastern Congo. In one July attack, 40 worshippers were massacred in Ituri. With 7.8 million people displaced and 28 million facing food insecurity, humanitarian operations are at breaking point. Health facilities, too, are overwhelmed amid soaring attacks on medical staff and infrastructure.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇳 Trump threatens U.S.–India ties through tariffs, threats and political coercion: After two decades of bipartisan efforts to build a robust U.S.–India partnership, President Donald Trump is rapidly unravelling it. His administration has suspended trade talks, imposed steep tariffs, and threatened secondary sanctions over India’s Russian oil imports. New Delhi sees these moves as coercive interference in its foreign policy and economic sovereignty. Trump’s praise for Pakistan, criticism of Indian manufacturing, and threats tied to India’s BRICS participation have sparked backlash in Indian media and opposition ranks. The relationship, once anchored in bipartisan trust, now risks becoming a political flashpoint in both countries. With domestic politics increasingly shaping foreign policy, the strategic partnership faces serious strain. Trust—hard-won over years of diplomacy—may prove even harder to rebuild if it continues to erode under politicised pressure and transactional diplomacy.

3️⃣ 🇦🇿 🇦🇲 Azerbaijan and Armenia sign peace memorandum in Washington: Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a memorandum of understanding at the White House on Friday, committing to pursue a peace deal, according to regional sources. U.S. President Donald Trump will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the ceremony, which is expected to produce a “letter of intent” rather than a final agreement. Key disputes persist, including Azerbaijan’s demand that Armenia amend its constitution and the contentious “Zangezur Corridor,” linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. Armenia rejects any arrangement implying loss of sovereignty. The Washington summit follows months of negotiations since their July meeting in Abu Dhabi and offers Trump a sought-after diplomatic success amid lingering post-Nagorno-Karabakh tensions.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇺🇸 Prime Minister Salam approves U.S. plan to disarm Hizbollah: Lebanon’s Cabinet has plunged into crisis after Prime Minister Nawaf Salam endorsed a U.S.-led disarmament proposal targeting Hizbollah and allied factions. The plan, presented by envoy Tom Barrack, demands the Lebanese army dismantle non-state arsenals within 90 days, with foreign logistical support. President Joseph Aoun urged engagement, but ministers aligned with Hizbollah and Amal denounced the move as a foreign imposition, emphasising that any discussion of disarmament is premature without Israel’s withdrawal, the return of prisoners, an end to attacks, and a serious reconstruction process. Hizbollah insists that any weapons decision must arise from national consensus and not external pressure, warning that pitting the army against the resistance risks fracturing both state and military. Heated Cabinet sessions have exposed sharp divisions, prompting walkouts and warnings of internal unrest.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Microsoft cloud hosts Israeli surveillance trove used in strikes on Palestinians: Israeli intelligence unit 8200 has used Microsoft’s Azure cloud to store an immense trove of intercepted Palestinian communications—material reportedly used to plan airstrikes and arrests, according to an investigation by +972 Magazine, Local Call, and The Guardian. After a 2021 meeting between Unit 8200’s chief and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, engineers built a tailored Azure system capable of storing up to “a million calls an hour.” Leaked documents show over 11,000 terabytes of Israeli military data stored on Microsoft servers, much of it related to Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Microsoft denies knowledge of civilian surveillance, but whistleblowers and internal documents indicate the project has become central to Israeli operations—and a lucrative business venture. Activists and investors have since accused Microsoft of complicity in Israeli war crimes.

Major Story

🇹🇼 🇨🇳 IDENTITY, NOT POWER, DRIVES TAIWAN CONFLICT

The Taiwan conflict is often interpreted through the lens of geopolitics, military balance, or ideological confrontation. This framing misses the core issue. What lies at the heart of the cross-Strait crisis is not merely strategic rivalry, but a collision of collective identities. China views Taiwan’s return as central to its national rejuvenation; Taiwan sees its democracy and distinctiveness as non-negotiable. The United States, for its part, has come to link Taiwan’s fate to its own global leadership narrative. Each of these visions is shaped by historical trauma, national memory, and deep-seated self-conceptions—not just power calculus.

Competing Dreams and the Danger of Militarised Identity

For Beijing, reclaiming Taiwan is a step toward healing the humiliation of colonial-era fragmentation. For Taipei, maintaining democratic autonomy is tied to a history of resisting both authoritarianism and forced assimilation. For Washington, Taiwan has become symbolic of its hegemonic interests in the Indo-Pacific—essentially China containment—and democratic resilience. The problem is not merely that these dreams differ, but that some in all three capitals now believe they may only be realised through military force. In such an environment, deterrence alone is not enough. Dr. Zheng Wang, Director of the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, argues that the deeper the identity divide, the more likely it is that militarisation will harden narratives and accelerate escalation.

Strategic Reassurance: An Antidote to Symbolic Extinction

To reduce the risk of conflict, deterrence must be paired with strategic reassurance. This involves signalling that each side’s identity and core aspirations can survive—indeed thrive—without war. For example, Taiwan might frame its sovereignty as rooted in status quo resilience rather than outright independence, while China could be encouraged to see rejuvenation as global prestige and economic leadership rather than coercive unification. Reassurance must speak directly to existential concerns, not just strategic interests. By affirming dignity without demanding submission, reassurance lowers the cost of compromise and makes coexistence imaginable.

From Theory to Practice: Three Identity-Aware Policy Proposals

Wang outlines three key policy directives to address the aforementioned existential concerns. First, reduce military signalling: De-escalate symbolic shows of strength, such as provocative visits or permanent troop deployments. Emphasise defensive postures while reaffirming the One China policy to avoid triggering existential alarms in Beijing. Second, institutionalise cross-strait dialogue: Support Track II diplomacy and identity-sensitive forums involving academics, civil society, and cultural institutions. Let recognition and empathy precede formal negotiation. Finally, promote narratives of coexistence: All sides should avoid zero-sum rhetoric. Taiwan can reflect on its de-Sinicisation efforts, not as capitulation, but as strategy. China can temper historical rhetoric with messages of peaceful unity. The US can lead by example, balancing deterrence with respectful diplomacy.

Peace Through Mutual Recognition

This is not a conventional dispute over resources or ideology, it is a struggle between deeply internalised identities. Coercion cannot rewrite memory. Force will not resolve trauma. Without strategic reassurance, deterrence alone risks inflaming the very fears it seeks to contain. As Wang opines, if there is to be lasting peace in the Taiwan Strait, it will be won not through dominance, but through humility, and the difficult art of coexistence.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Bolsonaro placed under house arrest amid coup case: Brazil’s Supreme Court placed former president Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest after he violated court-ordered restrictions linked to an alleged coup plot. Justice Alexandre de Moraes ruled that Bolsonaro breached a social media ban by using allies’ accounts to incite attacks on the Supreme Court and advocate foreign intervention. The far-right leader will remain confined to his rented mansion in Brasília, with access limited to family and lawyers, and federal police have seized available phones. Moraes cited Bolsonaro’s phone participation in a pro-Bolsonaro rally and his son Flávio’s deleted social media post as evidence of deliberate defiance. Bolsonaro faces charges of orchestrating an attempt to overturn the 2022 election won by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with a potential sentence exceeding 40 years.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukrainian drone strike ignites Sochi oil depot amid intensified cross-border attacks: A Ukrainian drone strike overnight set ablaze an oil depot near Sochi, Russia, sparking a massive fire that required over 120 firefighters to extinguish. Regional governor Veniamin Kondratyev confirmed that debris hit a fuel tank as videos showed black smoke towering over the 2014 Olympic host city. Flights at Sochi airport were briefly suspended. The attack came amid one of Ukraine’s deadliest weeks in months, with a Russian missile strike on Mykolaiv injuring at least seven, and earlier strikes on Kyiv killing 31. Ukraine said it destroyed 60 of 76 Russian drones, while Moscow claimed to have intercepted 93 Ukrainian drones. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans for a 1,200-person prisoner swap as he urged allies for more air defences. Meanwhile, Kyiv pledged “zero tolerance” for corruption after arrests in a weapons procurement scandal.

3️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 🇰🇪 Laurent Saint-Cyr assumes Haiti leadership as governance falters: Business leader Laurent Saint-Cyr was sworn in Thursday as head of Haiti’s transitional council amid mounting gang threats and widespread violence. His appointment marks the first time Haiti’s executive branch is jointly led by private sector figures. Hours earlier, gang leader Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier threatened to storm the council, while gunfire echoed across Port-au-Prince. Saint-Cyr pledged to restore order and criticised state failure, urging stronger security operations and international support. Meanwhile, the U.N.-backed Kenyan-led mission remains under-resourced, with only 991 personnel—far short of the planned 2,500. Civil unrest persists, and over 1.3 million Haitians have been displaced since President Moïse’s 2021 assassination. Despite some support for Saint-Cyr, distrust of elite-led governance and ongoing violence continue to paralyse Haiti’s recovery.

4️⃣ 🇨🇮 🇷🇺 🇫🇷 President Ouattara’s fourth-term bid risks renewed unrest in Côte d’Ivoire: Côte d’Ivoire heads to a presidential election in October amid mounting unease. President Alassane Ouattara’s decision to seek a fourth term, the exclusion of leading opposition figures, and a disputed electoral system echo the fraught conditions that triggered deadly violence in 2020. No Ivorian presidential race since 1995 has produced a peaceful transfer of power. Regional geopolitics add pressure, as Russia-aligned Sahel states may welcome instability in one of France and the EU’s last strongholds in West Africa. Analysts warn that without immediate dialogue between government and opposition, tensions could spiral into unrest. Analysts also advocate for authorities to restore talks, reintegrate or replace barred candidates, and encourage participation rather than boycotts, as proactive steps now could avert another cycle of political crisis and preserve Côte d’Ivoire’s hard-won economic and security gains.

5️⃣ 🇲🇿 🇺🇳 Thousands displaced in Mozambique as Islamic State-linked group escalates insurgency: A surge of insurgent violence in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province forced more than 46,000 people from their homes between 20 and 28 July, the UN migration agency reported. Nearly 60% of the displaced are children, with attacks concentrated across three districts. Mozambique has battled Islamic State-linked militants in the region for eight years, with fighters accused of beheading villagers and abducting children for labour or recruitment. Rwandan troops are deployed to support local forces. The UN says over one million people have been uprooted in recent years due to conflict, cyclones, and drought. Doctors Without Borders has begun emergency aid for the newly displaced in Chiure district, the hardest hit. The unrest has also stalled major energy projects, including TotalEnergies’ $20 billion gas venture.

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Tips & Suggestions

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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