This week, Germany moves to assert military independence as Trump signals a softer stance on Russia; Albania bolsters its global standing through NATO, diplomacy, and regional leadership; and an AP investigation uncovers widespread Israeli use of human shields in Gaza.

Our lead story examines Lebanon’s elections, where polarisation prevails and offers no political reset.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇸 U.S. eyes Congo minerals deal as Kinshasa links investment to Rwanda-backed M23 withdrawal: Kinshasa is hopeful of securing a major deal with Washington by late June, trading U.S. access to key minerals like cobalt and lithium for investment in infrastructure and support in ending a Rwanda-backed rebellion in eastern DRC. The proposed agreement—paired with a possible peace deal with Rwanda—would help reduce DR Congo’s reliance on China, which has dominated the sector since a 2008 infrastructure-for-minerals pact. However, Congolese officials insist no agreement can proceed unless Rwandan forces and M23 rebels withdraw from occupied territory. Kigali, while denying ties to the rebels, sees the talks as a path to legitimise its role in regional metals processing. Trump’s envoy Massad Boulos has pushed for continued negotiations, as both sides weigh economic cooperation against deep-seated security concerns and territorial disputes.

2️⃣ 🇲🇽 Mexico’s unprecedented judicial elections raise hopes and fears: On 1 June, Mexico will hold the world’s largest-ever direct election of judges, replacing nearly 2,600 sitting officials—including Supreme Court justices—with candidates chosen by popular vote. While the move is framed by President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government as a way to democratise justice and tackle corruption, critics argue it exposes the judiciary to politicisation, weakened oversight, and infiltration by criminal groups. Independent turnout projections are low, and concerns abound over rushed vetting, political meddling, and violence. Supporters say the reform breaks elite control, while opponents warn it may deepen impunity in a country already plagued by systemic legal failures. The reform is a legacy of former president López Obrador’s clashes with the judiciary, and its outcome could shape Mexico’s battle against organised crime—and the integrity of its democratic institutions—for years to come.

3️⃣🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ risks reigniting arms race, strains global security architecture: President Trump’s newly announced $175 billion “Golden Dome” missile defence proposal aims to shield the U.S. from hypersonic and space-based threats through a vast orbital system of interceptors and sensors. Inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome and Reagan’s defunct Star Wars initiative, the plan envisions hundreds of satellites with lasers and advanced tracking. Yet experts warn the technology remains unproven and prohibitively expensive, with Congressional estimates topping $500 billion. Critics argue the system could destabilise nuclear deterrence by appearing to seek U.S. invulnerability, spurring rivals like China and Russia to expand their arsenals or deploy countermeasures in space. Rather than risk escalation, analysts urge Washington to leverage the initiative as a diplomatic catalyst—reviving stalled arms control talks and establishing space security norms to reduce the risk of miscalculation and military confrontation in orbit.

4️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 🇺🇸 UN Security Council deadlocked as Haiti crisis deepens, U.S. position unclear: As Haiti’s humanitarian crisis escalates—with over half the population facing severe food insecurity and armed groups expanding control—the UN Security Council convened behind closed doors to assess response options. The meeting, requested by the ten elected members (E10), follows a February proposal from the Secretary-General urging logistical UN support for the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission. However, divisions persist. The U.S., Haiti’s main MSS funder, has yet to clarify its stance, stalling progress, while Russia and China remain sceptical of the initiative. Some Council members are urging urgent action, but financial shortfalls and strategic disagreements—particularly regarding burden-sharing and peacekeeping feasibility—have left the Council paralysed. Meanwhile, Washington is weighing a potential role for the Organization of American States, but insists it cannot bear the financial burden alone.

5️⃣ 🇲🇾 🇲🇲 Malaysia presses for expanded Myanmar truce as ASEAN struggles for unity: Malaysia has called for an urgent extension and broadening of the Myanmar ceasefire set to expire at the end of this month, warning that continued conflict is worsening regional instability. At an ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan urged Myanmar’s military and opposition forces to halt hostilities and open space for humanitarian aid and long-term recovery. Despite repeated ASEAN efforts, Myanmar’s junta has ignored the bloc’s 2021 peace plan and escalated air strikes—most recently killing 20 children in Sagaing. Malaysia, holding ASEAN’s chair, warned of worsening refugee flows and cross-border crime. While some anti-coup groups have paused attacks, sporadic violence continues across contested areas. Political dialogue remains unlikely amid deep mistrust, even as the junta pushes for elections by year’s end.

Major Story

🇱🇧 POLARISATION PREVAILS AS LEBANON'S ELECTIONS OFFER NO POLITICAL RESET

Lebanon’s municipal elections, which concluded on 24 May after four rounds of voting, offered little indication of a political reset following the devastation of the 2023–2024 Hizbollah-Israel war. Despite heightened public frustration, the results confirmed the dominance of Lebanon’s traditional political actors, most notably the Shi’a alliance of Hizbollah and Amal, while reformist and opposition candidates failed to make gains.

Shi’a Bloc Holds Ground

Hizbollah and Amal, jointly referred to as the “Shi’a duo,” retained a firm grip on their strongholds in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Though critics believed the costly war might have curtailed their support, voter loyalty remained largely unshaken. Part of this endurance can be attributed to the impending Israeli threat and ongoing attacks, in addition to sectarian allegiance, disciplined mobilisation structures, and the absence of any viable Shi’a opposition. In southern Lebanon, where destruction from the war was most acute, the duo ran uncontested in 102 of 272 municipalities.

Christian Bloc Realigns, Reformists Falter

In Christian-majority areas, the Lebanese Forces (LF) outperformed the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), deepening a trend first seen in the 2022 parliamentary elections. The FPM’s decline is widely blamed on its tarnished alliance with Hizbollah and the divisive leadership of Gebran Bassil, whose estrangement of founding members and family ties to former president Michel Aoun have fuelled internal disillusionment.

Anti-establishment forces, including those born of Lebanon’s 2019 protest movement, failed to capitalise on discontent. In Beirut, establishment parties united across ideological lines to block outsider candidates—illustrating a recurring pattern in Lebanese politics, where old foes close ranks to stifle challenges from new entrants. Reformists, meanwhile, struggled with fragmentation and a lack of coherent vision, diminishing the electoral appeal they once held.

Conclusion

The local elections reaffirmed the deep-rooted polarisation between Hizbollah-aligned factions and their rivals, with little space left for emerging movements. As the status quo endures, Lebanon’s political stagnation looks set to continue—despite, or perhaps because of, the heavy toll exacted by war and economic crisis.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Trump delays EU tariff hike, but July deadline looms: President Donald Trump has postponed his proposed 50% tariffs on the European Union, granting an extension until July 9 following a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Originally set to begin in June, the tariffs will rise from 10% to 20% if no agreement is reached by the new deadline. Trump said it was his "privilege" to offer the extension, while von der Leyen expressed optimism about swift negotiations. Despite the reprieve, tensions remain high. EU officials, including Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, have warned against threats and stressed the need for talks grounded in mutual respect. A high-stakes EU-U.S. meeting is now expected in early June.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 AP investigation reveals widespread Israeli use of human shields in Gaza: An AP investigation has uncovered mounting evidence that Israeli forces are systematically using Palestinian civilians as human shields in Gaza, in violation of international law. Seven Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers told AP that troops routinely coerce civilians into entering buildings and tunnels to search for explosives or militants. This corroborates an Al Jazeera investigation from late 2024, that came to the same conclusion. Though Israel’s military claims such practices are banned and under investigation, it provided no details. Rights groups say the tactic, which was a customary Israeli military tactic  until it was banned by Israel’s Supreme Court in 2005, remains prevalent. The military insists Hamas is to blame for civilian casualties, but the reports suggest a pattern of Israeli misconduct over the course of the 19-month war.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇱🇹 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Germany asserts military independence, Trump signals softer stance on Russia: Two statements this week underscore growing divergence in transatlantic defence priorities. On May 27, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed on social media that “lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia” without his intervention—an unusual remark that some read as shielding Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces war crimes charges. The next day, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced plans to help Ukraine develop long-range missiles for use against targets inside Russia. This marks a striking shift: as Trump retreats from traditional commitments, Berlin is assuming a more assertive defence role. Germany now aims to build Europe’s strongest conventional military, with plans to deploy a brigade to Lithuania, expand defence procurement, and possibly reintroduce conscription. European security, once underwritten by Washington, now hinges on whether the EU can act decisively—and independently.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Israeli Gaza aid plan descends into chaos, IDF fire at civilians: A joint U.S.-Israeli aid initiative in Gaza spiralled into chaos as thousands of starving Palestinians rushed a fenced-off distribution site, prompting gunfire from Israeli forces and possibly U.S. contractors. Eyewitnesses cited delays and crowd control failures, while sources reported three deaths and dozens injured—claims Israel denies. Humanitarian agencies condemned the use of Israeli-made food parcels as grossly insufficient for those recovering from starvation. The scheme, paired with forced evacuations and military offensives, has been denounced as part of a broader depopulation strategy. The UN has denounced the scheme and viral images of fenced-in civilians triggered global backlash. Since March, nearly all aid has been blocked, pushing Gaza’s population toward famine. Hundreds of Palestinians—mainly children and elderly—have died from hunger and lack of medicine.

5️⃣ 🇦🇱 Albania strengthens global standing through NATO, diplomacy, and regional leadership: Since joining NATO in 2009, Albania has transformed its foreign policy from post-isolation recovery to proactive regional and global engagement. NATO membership has reshaped its security architecture, fostering defense reform and greater alignment with Euro-Atlantic structures. With rising defense spending and participation in key NATO missions, including in Kosovo and Iraq, Albania has become a stabilising presence in the Western Balkans. While its military capacity remains limited, Tirana leverages its strategic geography through initiatives like the Kuçova airbase and proposed naval projects. Albania has also sought greater diplomatic clout, hosting summits and mediating in regional tensions. Its tenure on the UN Security Council (2022–23) elevated its profile as a vocal supporter of Ukraine and champion of human rights.

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Tips & Suggestions

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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