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This week, conflicts in Sudan and Myanmar escalated, while U.S. airstrikes on Iran pushed Middle East tensions to a perilous peak.

Meanwhile, G7 leaders met in Calgary, Alberta, as Cambodia issued an ultimatum to Thailand amid a rapidly escalating border dispute.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Trump confirms joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear sites: Donald Trump announced that U.S. airstrikes had “completely obliterated” three Iranian nuclear sites, as Washington formally joined Israel’s offensive against Iran. The strikes targeted facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and the deeply buried Fordow complex near Qom. Trump warned of further action unless Tehran agrees to peace. Legal experts note that targeting nuclear infrastructure and engaging in unprovoked aggression violates international law. Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation confirmed the attacks but vowed its nuclear programme would continue, insisting there was no radiation risk to nearby residents. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu praised Trump’s “bold” move, claiming perfect coordination with Washington. In response, Israel raised its alert level, shut schools and non-essential workplaces, and closed its airspace. UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the strikes as a dangerous escalation, warning they posed a direct threat to international peace and regional stability.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇱🇾 RSF claims capture of strategic Libya supply route in Sudan’s north, battle for El-Fasher continues: Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) say they have seized the Karb al-Toum oasis near the Libyan and Egyptian borders, aiming to consolidate key supply lines. The move follows RSF’s reported capture of the “Triangle” border zone and comes amid a broader offensive into Northern State. RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan Daglo claimed intelligence on “ISIS militants” in the area, declaring them a “legitimate target” while assuring civilians of safety. Analysts say the RSF seeks to reinforce its positions in Kordofan and Darfur, where it continues to press an assault on El Fasher. Sunday’s attack on the city was described as the most intense to date, deepening the siege on the army’s last stronghold in the region. Independent verification of RSF claims remains unavailable.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇮🇷 Israel uses war with Iran as cover to maintain deadly escalations in Gaza and West Bank: One week after Israel bombed Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, sparking retaliatory strikes and killing hundreds, the humanitarian crisis in Palestine has worsened dramatically. While Israelis received shelter access and warnings, Palestinians were left unprotected as Israel imposed a full lockdown on the occupied West Bank and escalated airstrikes on Gaza. More than 400 Palestinians have been killed, many while waiting for aid. Israeli forces bombed Nasser Hospital and targeted refugee camps, aid centres, and residential areas. Communications in Gaza collapsed, and settler violence surged in the West Bank, with coordinated attacks on Palestinian homes and businesses. Meanwhile, Palestinian citizens of Israel reported being denied access to bomb shelters during Iran’s strikes. Rights groups warn that Israel is exploiting the Iran conflict to intensify attacks on Palestinians with impunity.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 EU unveils phased Russian gas ban amid push to end Kremlin energy ties: The European Union is moving to phase out Russian natural gas imports, unveiling new legislation that would prohibit pipeline and liquefied gas flows from Moscow starting January 1, 2026—with limited exceptions. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen presented the measures in Strasbourg, aiming to eliminate Russian fossil fuel reliance by 2027. The draft law mandates member states to publish diversification plans and track gas origins, classifying supplies as Russian unless otherwise verified. While some long-term contracts may continue until 2028, landlocked nations like Hungary and Slovakia—who have resisted the shift—will be granted extra time to comply. The move forms part of the REPowerEU initiative and aligns with new sanctions proposals, including capping Russian oil at $45 per barrel. Full sanctions still require unanimous approval from all 27 EU members.

5️⃣ 🇸🇪 World on cusp of new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI: As of January 2025, nearly all nine nuclear-armed states—led by the US, Russia, and China—are aggressively modernising their arsenals. Of the estimated 12,241 warheads globally, 9,614 are operational stockpiles, with 2,100 on high alert. Russia and the US still hold about 90% of these weapons, and both are preparing for a post–New START era in 2026. China now possesses at least 600 warheads and is rapidly expanding its silo-based ICBM infrastructure. Meanwhile, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel are also enhancing capabilities, while Iran is poised to exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty following Israeli attacks. Arms control is in freefall, and experts warn of a new arms race marked by AI, space, and cyber threats. Regional crises, including Indo-Pakistan tensions and growing nuclear debates in East Asia and Europe, heighten the risks of miscalculation and destabilisation.

Major Story

🇲🇲 🇧🇩 🇺🇳 ROHINGYA INSURGENCY RISKS DERAILING FRAGILE REGIONAL DIPLOMACY IN RAKHINE

The Arakan Army’s decisive military victory over Myanmar’s junta in northern Rakhine has dramatically altered the region’s dynamics. With Maungdaw township falling in December 2024, the ethnic Rakhine armed group now controls the entire border with Bangladesh. This shift has galvanised Rohingya armed groups, which historically fought one another in Bangladesh’s refugee camps, to unite against the Arakan Army. Since a “harmony” agreement in November, camp violence has subsided, and recruitment efforts have surged, with religious leaders framing the campaign as a “jihad” against “non-believers.”

Military calculations and shifting loyalties

The Myanmar military’s earlier attempts to conscript Rohingya fighters to resist the Arakan Army sparked internal division. While many Rohingya opposed collaboration with the junta, growing hostility toward the Arakan Army’s rhetoric and alleged abuses has reframed the conflict in their eyes. Armed Rohingya factions now view the Arakan Army, rather than the junta, as the greater threat to repatriation hopes and community safety.

Bangladesh’s balancing act

Bangladeshi security agencies, long engaged with both the Arakan Army and Rohingya militants, appear to be leveraging the armed groups to pressure the Arakan Army into accepting refugee returns. While official support is unconfirmed, Dhaka’s alignment with the “unity” campaign risks undermining early dialogue efforts with the Arakan Army. The insurgency’s escalation threatens not only increased displacement but also the deterioration of critical cross-border relations.

Strategic costs and diminishing Rohingya legitimacy

Attacks by Rohingya groups may also harm their standing in Myanmar. The Arakan Army has earned domestic legitimacy by resisting the junta, and Rohingya opposition could alienate potential allies in Myanmar’s broader pro-democracy movement. Such positioning risks reinforcing anti-Rohingya narratives, making citizenship reform and long-term integration even more elusive.

Preventing escalation

To prevent deeper conflict, it is incumbent on Bangladesh to contain militant influence in refugee camps, support civilian leadership, and expand informal trade and humanitarian aid in Rakhine. Analysts write that the Arakan Army, now a dominant power, should engage Rohingya representatives and demonstrate inclusive governance. With U.S. aid waning, other international donors must act quickly to support camp stability—before frustration and despair fuel a deeper insurgency.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Huckabee urges Trump to consider nuclear strike on Iran, invoking divine guidance: U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee urged President Donald Trump to consider a nuclear attack on Iran, likening the decision to Truman’s 1945 atomic bombings on Japan. In a message shared by the White House on X, Huckabee claimed Trump would “hear from heaven” and framed the moment as divinely ordained. The appeal comes amid heightened Israeli lobbying for U.S. military action, despite intelligence assessments that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons. Huckabee’s remarks, reflecting his evangelical Christian Zionist views, drew praise from Iran hawk Senator Lindsey Graham, who has advocated for unilateral U.S. action against Iran for a decade. Trump, dismissing U.S. intelligence, reiterated demands for Iran’s “complete surrender” and “evacuation of Tehran,” also hinting at potential negotiations via VP J.D. Vance or envoy Steve Witkoff. According to Axios, Trump is weighing military options with his national security team.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇸🇾 U.S. and EU begin to lift Syria sanctions as regional support shapes fragile recovery: The U.S. and EU have begun easing sanctions on Syria, with President Trump issuing indefinite waivers for key institutions and the EU following days later. Backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, Syria’s interim government has pushed for relief to support recovery efforts after Assad’s fall. While the move marks a critical turning point, the process remains complex—entangled in overlapping legal regimes like the Caesar Act and terrorism designations. Regional actors are rallying behind Syria’s reconstruction, but experts warn the slow pace of formal banking reform, widespread poverty, and over-compliance by financial institutions hinder progress. Analysts argue that Western policy should enable Syria’s transition by lifting conditionalities and empowering regional investment—lest delay deepen reliance on informal networks and rival powers like Iran and Russia.

3️⃣ 🇳🇿 🇨🇳 🇨🇰 New Zealand freezes Cook Islands funding over unauthorised China deals: New Zealand has suspended NZ$18.2 million in aid to the Cook Islands after the latter signed multiple agreements with China without prior consultation, breaching long-standing diplomatic protocols. Wellington, the Cook Islands’ primary donor, cited a lack of transparency and concern over the deals’ scope as justification for halting further funding. Prime Minister Mark Brown downplayed the freeze, calling it a “pause,” but tensions rose as the withheld funds—intended for health, education, and tourism—surfaced in budget documents. The controversy coincides with Prime Minister Luxon’s visit to China, amplifying scrutiny of regional ties. While the agreements avoided explicit security clauses, they pledged Chinese investment and scholarships, triggering unease in New Zealand over Beijing’s growing Pacific influence and perceived disregard for established consultation norms.

4️⃣ 🇪🇷 🇸🇩 🇮🇷 🇹🇷 Eritrea emerges as key arms conduit for Sudanese army amid growing Iran-Turkey support: Eritrea has become a central hub for smuggling weapons to Sudan’s military (SAF), with recent shipments through Asmara including anti-aircraft systems, drones, and barrel bombs—violating UN arms embargoes. Media reports link this surge to a secret May meeting between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and former Sudanese intelligence chief Salah Gosh, a known arms broker now allied with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Turkish and Iranian drones are reportedly being flown in via Asmara, as Burhan’s forces move aircraft to Eritrea for protection from RSF airstrikes. Eritrean ports, naval assets, and training camps are increasingly supporting Sudan’s war effort. The alliance risks further inflaming tensions with Ethiopia, which claims rights to access Red Sea ports—particularly Assab, long viewed by Asmara as sovereign and non-negotiable.

5️⃣ 🇰🇭 🇹🇭 Cambodia issues ultimatum to Bangkok as border dispute escalates: Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand have deepened after Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen threatened to ban fruit and vegetable imports unless Thailand lifts border restrictions within 24 hours. The ultimatum follows last month’s deadly clash at the Emerald Triangle, where Cambodian and Thai troops exchanged fire, killing a Cambodian soldier. While both armies claimed self-defence and agreed to reposition troops, Thailand tightened border controls and threatened to cut electricity supplies. Cambodia responded by placing troops on alert, suspending Thai imports and media content, and halting electricity purchases. Despite weekend talks in Phnom Penh, little progress was made. Cambodia has since requested International Court of Justice intervention to settle four disputed sites, including ancient temples. Thailand, however, insists on bilateral negotiations and dismissed a prior ICJ ruling in Cambodia’s favour.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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