A quieter week when compared to the geopolitical madness that has been the first few weeks of 2024.

The internet’s eyes and ears were fixed on a steely Vladimir Putin and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, as they talked about Russian history and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, in an interview in frosty Moscow.

Not a dull week in geopolitics - but certainly not as fast-paced as we’ve witnessed so far. Get stuck in here ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇻🇪 Venezuela: Satellite imagery reveals Venezuela is bolstering its military presence near the Guyana border, contradicting President Nicolás Maduro's earlier commitment to peace, signaling a heightened threat to the oil-rich Essequibo region claimed by Venezuela. As tensions escalate, Venezuela's military readiness juxtaposes diplomatic talks, raising concerns of conflict over the disputed territory. Amid international arbitration, the situation draws regional and international responses, including increased military support for Guyana from the US and Brazil, highlighting the dispute's potential to destabilize the region further.

2️⃣🇵🇰 Pakistan: Imran Khan's party, PTI, has claimed a surprising victory in the state’s elections, announcing intentions to form the next government amidst political confusion and allegations of vote manipulation. Despite winning the most seats, PTI lacks a simple majority, and their leader, Imran Khan, remains incarcerated, challenging the military's influence over politics. As opposition parties consider forming a coalition to secure power, the military's silent role in shaping election outcomes underscores its enduring control over Pakistan's political landscape.

3️⃣🇾🇪 Yemen: Houthi rebels are suspected of planning to target submarine internet cables in the Red Sea, a critical conduit for Western internet and financial data transmission. The UN-recognized Yemeni government and telecom firms have voiced concerns following Houthi threats, highlighting the strategic significance of Yemen's geographic location for global digital infrastructure. With 17% of the world's internet traffic passing through these cables, any sabotage could have far-reaching impacts on global connectivity and trade, amidst ongoing tensions and military responses from the US and UK to Houthi aggressions in the region.

4️⃣🇪🇺 Europe: Across Europe, from Poland to Spain, farmers have taken to the streets to voice their discontent with EU measures, rising costs, and the impact of cheap Ukrainian imports. Utilizing tractors to block roads and staging demonstrations, their grievances focus on opposition to the EU's Green Deal, environmental regulations, and economic pressures affecting the agricultural sector. The widespread protests, ranging from border blockades in Poland to demonstrations in city centers in Spain and Italy, underscore a growing dissatisfaction with agricultural policies and economic challenges facing farmers continent-wide.

5️⃣🇺🇸 United States: President Joe Biden will not be charged in relation to the mishandling of classified documents, as announced by Special Counsel Robert Hur. The decision was based on insufficient evidence to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, despite acknowledging potential national security risks. This development comes amid discussions on the handling of the case of former president Trump, highlighting differences in legal and procedural responses.

Major Story

Tucker Talks to Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin granted a rare interview to American Tucker Carlson, a former Fox News host figure known for his outspoken views on the Ukraine conflict. Conducted in Moscow, this interview represented a strategic effort by Putin to communicate directly with an American audience, particularly those skeptical of U.S. involvement in Ukraine.

Choosing Carlson, who has criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine and expressed what some consider to be controversial opinions about Ukrainian leadership, Putin aimed to leverage Carlson's platform to influence American public opinion. The interview covered a range of topics, with Putin reiterating his stance on historical ties between Russia and Ukraine, essentially challenging the sovereignty and legitimacy of Ukraine. 

The timing of the interview coincides with a critical juncture in U.S.-Ukraine relations, amid debates in the U.S. over continued support for Kyiv. Putin's narrative, suggesting the U.S. should focus on domestic issues rather than Ukraine, seeks to resonate with isolationist sentiments among some American factions.

As would be expected of any interview of such magnitude, the two-hour-long video set X (formerly Twitter) ablaze. Overall, reactions have been mixed, with Ukrainian officials and observers interpreting it as part of Russia's broader campaign to undermine support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, some Russian commentators view it as a successful attempt to counteract the narrative of Russia's international isolation.

What will its impact on American discourse on Ukraine will be? Only time will tell.

Other News

1️⃣🇸🇻 El Salvador: The re-election of President Nayib Bukele and his party's dominant win in Congress has raised alarms for some about the potential erosion of democratic norms in El Salvador. Critics fear the consolidation of power could undermine checks and balances, threatening civil liberties and judicial independence. Bukele's strict anti-gang measures, while popular for reducing crime, have also prompted debates over human rights and governance sustainability. Despite concerns Bukele enjoys immense popularity, with an approval rating of 91% as of May 2023 and recent polls indicating over 70% support, dwarfing his closest opponents who are in the low single digits.

2️⃣🇧🇷 Brazil: Police confiscated Jair Bolsonaro's passport, accusing him of plotting a coup to overturn his election loss. The operation targeted his allies, implicating them in efforts to stay in power post-defeat to Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro, facing multiple probes and ineligible for office until 2030, denies wrongdoing, claiming political persecution.

3️⃣🇹🇼 Balloons are back. Taiwan's defense ministry has reported detecting eight Chinese balloons crossing the Taiwan Strait in 24 hours, marking the second consecutive day of such activities amid ongoing complaints of them posing aviation risks and being a form of psychological warfare; this comes as China dismisses the concerns, attributing the balloons to meteorological purposes, amidst the backdrop of Lunar New Year celebrations and heightened tensions following Taiwan's election of Vice President Lai Ching-te, labeled a separatist by China, as its next president.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇲🇲 Myanmar: Myanmar's military government has introduced mandatory military service for young men and women amidst ongoing conflict with armed rebel groups. Men aged 18-35 and women 18-27 are required to serve up to two years, with certain professionals, like doctors up to age 45, mandated three years, extendable to five during the emergency state. This move, addressing personnel shortages faced since the 2021 coup, enforces a 2010 conscription law, with penalties for non-compliance.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🇦🇪 The World Government Summit 2024, set to occur from February 12-14 in Dubai, is poised to address a range of critical global issues under the theme "Shaping Future Governments." This summit aims to foster cooperation among governments, share knowledge, and explore future opportunities and challenges. Key discussions will cover themes such as the Future of Work, AI, and climate action. The event is expected to feature over 25 heads of state and governments, 120 governmental delegations, and 85 international and regional organizations, highlighting its global significance​​​​​.

2️⃣🇮🇩 Indonesia's upcoming presidential election on February 14, 2024, marks a pivotal moment for the nation as it will bring about a change in administration. President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is ineligible for re-election, setting the stage for new leadership to take the helm.

3️⃣🇩🇪 The Munich Security Conference (MSC), taking place from February 16-18, 2024, will continue to be an essential forum for discussing international security concerns. This independent conference gathers policymakers to deliberate on pressing issues such as major conflicts and escalating threats, underlining its role in shaping global security dialogues.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." - Sun Tzu, "The Art of War".

We’ll just leave this here for this week ⤵️

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

As we settle into the rhythm of our newsletter, we're looking to evolve based on what you want to read most. We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected].