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📰 Trump vs Iran in Yemen

📰 Trump vs Iran in Yemen

and South Africa-U.S. fallout

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 23, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

This week has seen major escalations across multiple flashpoints — including Gaza, eastern DRC, the Red Sea, Eritrea–Ethiopia, and renewed tensions between India and Pakistan. Amid the intensifying conflicts, a rare opportunity for de-escalation has emerged in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, our main story turns to Myanmar, where the restive Chin State sits at a crossroads, grappling with fragmentation, contested authority, and fragile unity.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Hundreds killed in Gaza as Israel sabotages ceasefire: Israel has shattered the ceasefire with Hamas, launching heavy airstrikes on Gaza that killed over 400 people overnight. The renewed offensive, welcomed by Israeli prime minister Netanyahu’s far-right allies, strengthens his fragile coalition amid mounting political pressure. Critics argue that his decision is driven by domestic political considerations rather than strategic necessity, as he faces backlash over security failures and ongoing corruption scandals. Meanwhile, hostage families have condemned the escalation, warning it endangers the lives of captives still held in Gaza, while analysts caution that the offensive risks further destabilizing the ceasefire with Lebanon.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Kremlin agrees to halt airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days: Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to halt strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, but only if Kyiv reciprocates, according to a Kremlin statement. However, in a lengthy call with U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin rejected a broader 30-day ceasefire, ensuring continued attacks on Ukrainian cities and ports. While the White House framed the agreement as a step toward peace, some U.S. officials privately warned that Putin appeared to be stalling while consolidating battlefield gains. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while open to a halt on energy strikes, emphasized that Kyiv would not remain passive if Russia continued targeting critical infrastructure.

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Continued U.S. strikes on Yemen threaten further regional stability: Since Ansarullah—the Houthis—began targeting ships in the Red Sea in late 2023, the U.S. and its allies have launched repeated strikes against the Iran-allied Yemeni group. On March 15, the first such operation under President Trump killed over 50 people, including alleged Iranian operatives, as part of a broader strategy to curb Houthi attacks, pressure Tehran, and reassert U.S. naval strength. Yet, despite these efforts, the Houthis remain deeply entrenched, governing a vast territory and population, with growing regional influence and popular support. Trump’s escalation risks further inflaming tensions, potentially drawing Iran, Israel, and the broader Middle East into a more volatile confrontation.

4️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23 enter Walikale town, despite ceasefire calls: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have advanced further into eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), capturing the strategic mining town of Walikale despite renewed international appeals for a ceasefire. The takeover came just one day after DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame jointly called for an immediate truce during talks in Doha. A Congolese army spokesperson confirmed the loss of the town, while M23-allied leader Corneille Nangaa rejected the ceasefire proposal, insisting the agreement does not address their core demands. The seizure of Walikale, located roughly 125km northwest of Goma, represents M23’s deepest push westward into Congolese territory since the group’s resurgence, displacing thousands and leaving several civilians injured.

5️⃣ 🇿🇦 🇺🇸 South Africa’s ambassador to the U.S. declared persona non grata: The United States has expelled South Africa’s ambassador, Ebrahim Rasool. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Rasool of harboring anti-American and anti-Trump sentiments, citing remarks the envoy made in a South African think tank’s webinar. In his speech, Rasool discussed demographic shifts in the U.S. and criticized Trump’s engagement with far-right figures, which Rubio condemned as “race-baiting.” The expulsion escalated already strained U.S.-South Africa relations, following Trump’s decision to freeze aid to Pretoria over allegations that land was being seized from white farmers. Trump has since invited South African farmers to immigrate to the U.S., further fueling tensions. South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, called the expulsion “regrettable” and urged diplomatic restraint, as political divisions deepen between the two nations.

Major Story

🇲🇲 🇧🇩 🇮🇳 CHIN STATE AT A CROSSROADS: NAVIGATING POWER, FRAGMENTATION AND FRAGILE UNITY

Since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, Chin resistance forces have expelled the military from most of the state. Yet, despite their territorial control, political unity remains elusive. The Chin National Front and the Chin Brotherhood—two major factions—are attempting to consolidate under one political umbrella, but longstanding rivalries and ethnic fragmentation risk undermining this fragile alignment. Clashes between factions and tensions with the Arakan Army in Paletwa further destabilize the region. Without formal conflict de-escalation protocols and shared governance objectives, the risk of renewed infighting looms.

Humanitarian Crisis and Institutional Gaps

Over 160,000 people—more than a third of Chin State’s population—have been displaced. Aid access is limited, while public services remain fragmented or absent. For risks to be mitigated, donors must adapt to the new reality of fragmented authority by engaging directly with local actors, writes ICG. Additionally, regional powers, especially India, should support informal trade and cross-border humanitarian relief to ease food insecurity and economic strain.

Ethnic Complexity and Regional Power Play

Chin State’s diverse tribal makeup and its proximity to Bangladesh and India have made it strategically significant. The Arakan Army’s growing influence in Paletwa—a contested township rich in trade potential and infrastructure—has sparked local fears of ethno-nationalist domination. Control of Paletwa could grant leverage over India’s $500 million Kaladan Corridor, increasing regional stakes.

Looking Ahead

Stability hinges on the success of the February unity agreement between Chin factions. International engagement must move beyond state-centric frameworks to support local governance and peacebuilding. Without this shift, Chin State’s hard-won gains could unravel, and Myanmar’s broader post-coup trajectory may slide further into fragmentation and prolonged conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 Hungarian veto stifles EU’s Ukraine aid plans: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas had aimed to secure €40 billion in military aid for Ukraine, including the delivery of two million artillery shells by 2025. However, her plan collapsed after facing resistance from key EU states, a Hungarian veto, and limited prior consultation with member countries. Even a scaled-down proposal for €5 billion in ammunition aid failed to gain enough support, with southern and western European nations reluctant to commit. Critics say Kallas misjudged her role and failed to build consensus, weakening her influence and highlighting the challenge of uniting all 27 EU members behind a shared Ukraine policy.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israeli support for subnational groups seeks to weaken Syria say analysts: Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Israel has taken strategic steps to undermine Syria’s political transition. The newfound freedom of Syrians to express solidarity with Palestine has alarmed Tel Aviv, which has responded by occupying additional Syrian territories, including parts of Mount Hermon and southern areas of the Golan Heights. These incursions, coupled with targeted airstrikes on military sites, signal Israel’s intent to destabilize Syria’s emerging government. Meanwhile, the Israeli government is accelerating settlement expansion in the occupied Golan Heights, reinforcing its long-term occupation. Simultaneously, Israel has exploited sectarian tensions, presenting itself as a protector of Druze communities while bombing Syrian military positions. It has also lobbied the U.S. to maintain Syria’s fragmentation, ensuring that no unified or sovereign state emerges. These interventions highlight Israel’s broader objective—preserving regional instability to prevent a strong, independent Syria from posing a security threat.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Islamabad accuses Delhi of sponsoring militant groups in Balochistan: Pakistan’s military has accused India of backing militant groups in Balochistan following a deadly train hijacking that left 26 passengers dead. The attack, carried out by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), saw militants ambush a train in a remote area, taking hundreds of hostages before engaging in a prolonged standoff with security forces. Pakistan’s army spokesperson, Lt Gen Ahmad Sharif, blamed India for supporting the separatist group but provided no evidence, while India dismissed the claims as baseless. The attack, the first train hijacking by the BLA, has drawn international condemnation, with the UN Security Council calling for those responsible to be held accountable. Meanwhile, Pakistani officials have also suggested Afghan involvement, an allegation Kabul has denied, insisting the BLA has no presence within its borders.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 TPLF fragments, risk of Ethiopia–Eritrea conflict grows: Tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region escalated on March 11 when TPLF-aligned forces attacked the federally backed Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), seizing government offices, detaining officials, and clashing with civilians. Conflicting reports emerged on whether the violence reached Mekelle, though the TPLF later claimed control of parts of the region. The TIA had previously suspended high-ranking officers, warning of an impending coup, and has now called for international intervention. With Ethiopia and Eritrea mobilising on their respective sides of the border, renewed fighting in Tigray could push the delicate situation over the edge and ignite a broader regional war, which would be disastrous for local populations.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 Key Erdogan rival blocked from Türkiye’s election: Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor and a leading challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, risks disqualification from Turkey’s next presidential race after Istanbul University revoked his degree. The cancellation, which undermines a constitutional eligibility requirement, follows mounting legal pressures, including multiple criminal investigations and a potential 23-year prison sentence. İmamoğlu has condemned the decision as politically motivated, accusing the government of using the judiciary to suppress opposition. While Erdoğan is constitutionally barred from seeking another term, his allies are pushing for either an early election or constitutional amendments to extend his rule, raising concerns over democratic backsliding.