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In South Asia, India says the Red Fort explosion as a terrorist attack linked to Kashmir-based suspects. In the Middle East, new data exposes Israel’s weaponisation of water in occupied Palestine, while its declaration of the Egypt border as a closed military zone threatens to strain the landmark peace treaty.

This week’s lead story turns to West Africa, where we examine President Trump’s claims of an ongoing genocide against Christians in Nigeria.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 US aircraft carrier enters Caribbean as UK suspends intelligence sharing over strikes: The Pentagon’s largest warship, the USS Gerald R Ford, has entered Latin American waters amid escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions, marking the region’s biggest U.S. naval deployment since the 1989 Panama invasion. The move coincides with Britain’s suspension of intelligence sharing on suspected drug-trafficking vessels, over fears U.S. forces are using shared data to carry out unlawful maritime killings.

2️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇧🇬 Romania and Bulgaria scramble to save refineries before US sanctions hit Russian oil giants: Romania and Bulgaria are rushing to prevent shutdowns of key oil refineries owned by Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft ahead of sweeping US sanctions set to take effect on November 21. Bulgaria’s parliament has passed a law allowing the government to seize control of the massive Lukoil-run Burgas refinery and even nationalise it if necessary, while Romania is weighing a similar emergency response.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 India confirms Red Fort explosion as terrorist attack amid Kashmir-linked arrests: India has confirmed that the blast outside Delhi’s Red Fort, which killed 12 people and injured more than 30, was a terrorist attack carried out by “anti-national forces.” Authorities have detained suspects in Kashmir allegedly tied to the Pakistan-based group Jaish-e-Mohammad, as investigators link the bombing to a wider cross-border terror network.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇯🇵 China and Japan clash over Tokyo’s stance on Taiwan defence: Tensions flared between China and Japan after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned that a Chinese assault on Taiwan could trigger Japan’s right to collective self-defence if it posed an existential threat. Beijing condemned her remarks as “dangerous,” while China’s consul general in Osaka sparked outrage by posting a violent threat against Takaichi, later deleted after Tokyo’s protest.

5️⃣ 🇵🇰 Pakistan grants army chief sweeping powers in constitutional overhaul: Pakistan’s parliament has approved a constitutional amendment granting Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir expanded control over all branches of the armed forces and lifelong legal immunity, while curbing the authority of the supreme court. Analysts have described the amendment as the death knell for Pakistan’s fragile democracy, cementing Munir’s dominance over both government and state institutions.

Major Story

🇳🇬 🇺🇸 WASHINGTON AND ABUJA CLASH OVER CLAIMS OF ‘CHRISTIAN GENOCIDE’

Relations between the United States and Nigeria have deteriorated sharply following accusations by President Donald Trump and his domestic allies that Abuja is complicit in the mass killing of Christians. Trump has threatened military intervention, warning that Washington would “go in guns blazing” if Nigeria failed to protect its Christian population. Nigeria’s government has dismissed the allegations as inflammatory and insisted that its sovereignty be respected. The rift marks the lowest point in bilateral relations since the 1970s, when the two nations clashed over Washington's support for apartheid-era South Africa.

Misreading Nigeria’s Complex Violence

While violence against civilians has intensified since President Bola Tinubu took office, claims that Nigerian Christians face state-backed persecution distort a far more complex reality. By way of background, Nigeria’s security threats are multi-faceted and overlapping, primarily stemming from banditry, resource competition, communal land disputes and separatist agitation. They also tend to be enmeshed in history, entangled in poverty and exacerbated by political contestation.

Narratives that focus solely on the killing of Christians tend to ignore the reality that sectarianism is often a secondary factor in Nigeria’s internal violence, rather than its main driver. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) indicate that incidents explicitly targeting Christians account for only around five per cent of civilian attacks.

In the Middle Belt, where much of the violence occurs, conflicts are often driven by competition for land and resources between predominantly Christian farming communities and mostly Muslim Fulani herders. Local leaders, including Benue’s paramount ruler and Plateau’s governor, describe the violence as a campaign of territorial seizure rather than religious genocide. Meanwhile, in the predominantly Christian southeast, criminal gangs — not Islamist militants — are behind most killings and kidnappings.

Risks of U.S. Miscalculation

By framing Nigeria’s turmoil in sectarian terms, Washington risks deepening religious polarisation and undermining fragile interfaith coexistence. Christians and Muslims coexist across most regions, and Nigeria’s constitution guarantees religious pluralism, which is a principle reflected even in the presidency: Tinubu, a Muslim, is married to a Christian pastor.

A U.S. intervention would do little to protect Nigerian civilians and would inflame tensions. Islamist militants and local militias operate in diffuse, rural areas where airstrikes would likely cause high civilian casualties. Moreover, further cuts to aid — already reduced after Trump shuttered USAID — would devastate humanitarian and development programs, worsening suffering across communities.

The Danger of Simplistic Narratives

Trump’s rhetoric mirrors past U.S. misadventures built on moral panic and misreading of local dynamics. Nigeria’s crises demand nuanced engagement, writes International Crisis Group, not military threats or partisan crusades. Reducing its complex conflicts to a false narrative of Christian persecution risks fanning extremism, eroding trust, and destabilising one of West Africa and the Sahel’s most important states.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Israel weaponising water in occupied Palestine, data reveals: Israeli forces and settlers have launched more than 250 attacks on Palestinian water infrastructure since 2020, including bombings, poisonings, and demolitions, according to new data from the Pacific Institute. The assaults—most concentrated in Gaza and the West Bank—have destroyed or damaged 90% of water and sanitation facilities, fuelling what UN experts describe as a public health catastrophe and a “genocidal strategy” of displacement.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇲🇲 Russia and China bolster Myanmar military with new aircraft amid ongoing civil war: Myanmar’s junta has commissioned Russian Mi-38T helicopters and Chinese Y-8 transport aircraft into its air force, underscoring Moscow and Beijing’s continued military support despite global sanctions. The new hardware strengthens the Tatmadaw’s aerial capabilities as it intensifies operations against resistance forces ahead of December’s widely dismissed elections.

3️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Canadian intelligence agency warns of intensifying Russian, Chinese Arctic espionage: Canada’s intelligence chief says Russia and China are stepping up espionage efforts in the Arctic, targeting government institutions and private companies as competition over shipping routes and critical minerals accelerates. Ottawa’s warnings come as the federal government boosts Arctic investment and urges NATO to treat the region as a strategic priority.

4️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Thailand suspends Cambodia peace deal after border landmine blast: Thailand has suspended its recently brokered peace agreement with Cambodia after a landmine explosion wounded two Thai soldiers near their shared border, reigniting tensions that had only briefly subsided following July’s clashes. The accord, mediated by U.S. President Trump and signed in Malaysia in October, was intended to remove heavy weaponry from the frontier and secure the release of prisoners of war.

5️⃣ 🇱🇾 Western Libya fuel-smuggling surge exposes a state-enabled kleptocracy: A new Sentry investigation finds that state-backed fuel smuggling in Libya between 2022 and 2024 diverted roughly $20bn in public revenue, implicating senior politicians, security chiefs, and foreign patrons in a vast criminal enterprise. The report shows how Libya’s National Oil Corporation oversaw an explosion in fuel-swap imports that were resold abroad for private profit, fuelling regional conflicts.

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Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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