Hello and welcome back. 

This week, Lula and Petro rebuke Trump at the UN; Nigeria’s Dangote refinery shifts global fuel trade; and Germany channels €83bn defence spending to European industry.

Our lead story turns to New York, where US President Donald Trump has delivered his address to the UN General Assembly.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇧🇪 🇪🇺 🇵🇸 France and Belgium join European states in recognising Palestine: France, Belgium, Andorra, Luxembourg, Malta, and Monaco formally recognised Palestinian statehood at a summit co-hosted with Saudi Arabia ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York. French President Emmanuel Macron said the time had come to secure a just peace, proposing a “renewed Palestinian Authority” backed by an International Stabilisation Force to prepare Gaza for future governance.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 War between Ethiopia and Eritrea ‘inevitable,’ say local sources: A former senior TPLF official warns that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is now “inevitable,” describing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as treating conflict as both a distraction from Ethiopia’s crises and a personal mission to capture the Red Sea port of Assab. He claims Abiy has dismantled the Pretoria Agreement, alienated former allies, and aligned with the UAE to secure military support, even at the cost of destabilising the entire Horn. The insider cautions that renewed fighting could erupt within months, with Ethiopia pursuing confrontation as a calculated gamble rather than a last resort.

3️⃣ 🇳🇪 🇧🇫 🇲🇱 Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali announce International Criminal Court withdrawal: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have withdrawn from the International Criminal Court, calling it a "neo-colonial" imperialist tool. The respective governing juntas formed the Alliance of Sahel States after coups between 2020 and 2023, distancing themselves from the West. Amnesty International regards this move as a blow to victims seeking justice for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The group stressed that withdrawal would not halt Mali’s ongoing ICC investigation but would deny future victims access to international justice if domestic remedies fail.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 Battle for El Fasher reaches its crescendo as peace talks falter: The battle for El Fasher, the Sudanese army’s last foothold in Darfur, is approaching a decisive and catastrophic phase as the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces encircle the city, cutting off aid and bombarding civilian areas. More than 260,000 people — including 130,000 children — are trapped without food or medical care, with cholera spreading and recent RSF strikes killing dozens at a mosque and central market. Control of El Fasher would give the RSF total dominance of Darfur and major leverage in peace talks, but risks derailing a U.S.-led effort for a humanitarian truce before mass starvation sets in.

5️⃣ 🇸🇬 🇲🇾 🇮🇩 Piracy surge in Malacca and Singapore Straits threatens global shipping lanes: Piracy and armed robbery incidents in Asian waters surged 83% in the first half of 2025, with most attacks concentrated in the Malacca and Singapore Straits, vital arteries for global trade carrying coal, gas, and other exports. Experts say the raids are mostly small-scale “grab-and-go” operations by locals or organised gangs targeting bulk carriers, stealing easily resold spare parts. While joint patrols by Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are underway, analysts warn that persistent under-reporting and economic hardship in Indonesia’s Riau Islands risk fuelling further attacks, potentially raising shipping costs and insurance premiums worldwide.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇺🇸 TRUMP ADDRESSES THE UN

Donald Trump used his UN General Assembly address less to engage with global diplomacy than to deliver a blistering rebuke of Europe. In a speech laced with populist language, he accused European leaders of “destroying their own countries” through immigration, climate policies, and political correctness. He warned that Europe was “going to hell,” blasted the green energy agenda as “on the brink of destruction,” and mocked European funding for Ukraine as “funding the war against themselves.”

Populist Themes and Domestic Audience

Trump’s remarks were closer to a campaign rally than a foreign policy statement, touting his domestic achievements before pivoting to condemn European leaders. He called London’s mayor “terrible,” invoked the spectre of “Sharia law,” and cited dubious statistics on immigration and crime in Germany and Switzerland. Analysts noted that the speech seemed aimed at energising his US political base rather than engaging constructively with world leaders, who largely endured the tirade in silence.

Echoes of Vance’s Munich Address

Observers compared Trump’s remarks to US Vice-President JD Vance’s combative speech at the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, which similarly accused Europe of betraying its voters by “opening the floodgates” to migration. Trump stopped short of mentioning voters but accused European leaders of “destroying your heritage” for the sake of political correctness, signalling a White House intent on picking fights with its allies rather than repairing transatlantic ties.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 Pezeshkian vows to never build nuclear weapons, accuses Europe of subservience to Washington: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the UN General Assembly that Tehran “will never seek to build a nuclear bomb,” urging the E3 to halt efforts to trigger snapback sanctions before the September 27 deadline. He accused the UK, France, and Germany of acting at Washington’s behest and disregarding Iran’s legal rights under the 2015 nuclear deal, which the U.S. abandoned in 2018. Pezeshkian also condemned Israel’s push for a “greater Israel” as a campaign of genocide and regional domination, calling instead for a future built on dignity, trust, and cooperation with peace-seeking nations.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇺🇸 Germany prioritises European industry in €83bn defence procurement plan: Germany’s new procurement blueprint channels nearly €83bn in defence contracts largely toward European suppliers, with only 8% allocated to U.S. weapons—a shift away from Berlin’s recent status as one of Washington’s top arms buyers. Big-ticket American purchases include Raytheon’s Patriot missile systems and Boeing torpedoes. The plan underscores Berlin’s focus on strengthening domestic and European industry, signalling a more

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Von der Leyen says NATO may shoot down Russian jets after repeated airspace violations: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that NATO could shoot down Russian aircraft violating alliance airspace, saying every “square centimetre” must be defended. Her remarks follow a series of Russian incursions over Poland, Romania, and Estonia, with U.S. President Donald Trump and Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski backing a robust response. Von der Leyen called Russia’s actions part of a years-long “hybrid war” against European democracies, urging NATO to respond decisively to protect its territory.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 Trump crackdown on dissent mirrors McCarthyism in digital age: The assassination of Trump-aligned  activist Charlie Kirk has triggered an online witch hunt, with critics doxed, threatened, and even fired—from teachers and journalists to media personalities in a campaign encouraged by Vice President JD Vance. Commentators warn this recalls McCarthy-era blacklists, with dissent equated to disloyalty and free expression chilled. Unless there is collective pushback, this climate risks deepening polarisation, fuelling political violence, and pushing the U.S. closer to authoritarianism.

5️⃣ 🇧🇪 🇵🇭 ICC charges Rodrigo Duterte with crimes against humanity over drug war killings: The International Criminal Court has charged former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte with three counts of crimes against humanity, accusing him of involvement in at least 76 murders linked to his “war on drugs.” The charges span killings in Davao City between 2013–2016, the assassination of “high value targets” in 2016–2017, and 43 extra-judicial murders during nationwide drug “clearance” operations through 2018. Duterte, now detained in The Hague, appeared frail at his initial hearing, with his lawyer arguing he is cognitively unfit to stand trial and urging indefinite suspension of proceedings.

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Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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