Hello and welcome back. 

This week, Lebanon and Cyprus sign a maritime demarcation pact, Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro prepares for his prison sentence, and Taiwan earmarks an additional $40bn in defence spending to counter China.

Our lead story returns to Venezuela, where the framing of “narcoterrorism” is emerging as a legal and rhetorical gateway for U.S. intervention.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 European capitals prepare military guarantees if Ukraine reaches peace deal: As peace talks gain momentum, European leaders are developing plans for a multinational force to protect Ukraine under any potential agreement with Russia, a move that has now drawn tentative U.S. support. France and the U.K. will lead a new task force, joined by the U.S. and Turkey, to define concrete security guarantees, including troop deployments in non-frontline positions and air and naval support.

2️⃣ 🇬🇼 🇺🇳 Military seizes control in Guinea-Bissau: Military officers in Guinea-Bissau have declared they have taken “total control” of the country, suspending the electoral process, sealing borders, and imposing a nationwide curfew just days after both leading presidential candidates prematurely claimed victory. The military cited disputed election outcomes and rising political instability as justification for their insurrection, prompting urgent calls from ECOWAS, the African Union, and the UN to restore constitutional order.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Amnesty warns ceasefire masks ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza: Amnesty International has warned that Israel’s actions in Gaza still amount to genocide, arguing that the ceasefire merely creates a “dangerous illusion” of normalcy. The organisation says Israeli authorities have neither changed intent nor halted violations, with hundreds killed since the ceasefire and conditions engineered to inflict a “slow death” through lack of food, water, shelter, and medical care.

4️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan earmarks extra $40bn in defence spending to counter China: Taiwan has announced a $40 billion special defence package, warning that Beijing’s military threats, infiltration efforts, and annexation ambitions are accelerating. President Lai Ching-te said Taiwan’s security “leaves no room for compromise,” stressing that the real danger is not invasion but the nation “giving up” and accepting subjugation under a Hong Kong-style model.

5️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Renewed deadly cross-border strikes between Pakistan, Afghanistan: Pakistan launched cross-border strikes into Afghanistan, killing 10 civilians, in retaliation for a suicide bombing in Peshawar that Islamabad blames on militants operating from Afghan soil. The Taliban accused Pakistan of bombing Khost, Kunar and Paktika, calling it an “invasion,” while Pakistan has yet to comment officially but continues to accuse Kabul of sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants.

Major Story

🇻🇪 🇺🇸 WASHINGTON ESCALATES VENEZUELA STRATEGY UNDER ‘NARCOTERRORISM’ BANNER

U.S. strategy toward Venezuela is entering a more aggressive phase, with Reuters reporting that Washington is preparing covert operations aimed at destabilising President Nicolás Maduro’s government. This follows President Trump’s unusual public admission that he had authorised CIA covert actions—typically conducted in secrecy—and coincides with a significant U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean. Roughly 15,000 American troops, warships, and aircraft have been stationed in the region under the pretext of combating “narcoterrorism.” Since September, U.S. forces have conducted extrajudicial strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats, though observers say local fishermen have often been the real victims.

Flawed ‘Drug War’ Narrative

The Trump administration justifies its actions by accusing Maduro of fuelling the fentanyl crisis in the United States, despite Venezuela not producing fentanyl. Its drug networks are largely linked to cocaine trafficking to Europe. Yet the “narcoterrorism” label remains politically useful, both to criminalise the Venezuelan government and to cultivate support among right-wing exile communities in Florida, a crucial voting bloc for figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a key architect of U.S. Venezuela policy. Meanwhile, the same administration has cut funding for gun-violence prevention, threatened food assistance for low-income Americans, and reduced support for domestic opioid treatment programmes, all indications that concern for “American lives” does not consistently extend to crises at home.

Domestic Politics Driving Foreign Aggression

Analysts argue that Washington’s renewed activism in Venezuela is driven less by security concerns than by political ambition. Figures like Rubio, eyeing future presidential bids, seek to demonstrate toughness abroad. Reuters sources confirmed that “attempting to overthrow Maduro” is among the options under consideration, and U.S. officials reportedly proposed dropping leaflets over Caracas in a psychological warfare campaign, echoing tactics seen in other theatres, including Israel.

Regime Change by Another Name

Maduro, like his predecessor Hugo Chávez, has long resisted U.S. influence and pushed anti-imperialist narratives, making him a persistent irritant to Washington. Branding him a “narcoterrorist” offers a legal and rhetorical pathway to intervention. Yet U.S. strategy risks deepening instability without delivering democratic reform or protecting regional security. Ultimately, the growing militarisation of U.S. policy toward Venezuela appears unlikely to secure either the homeland or the hemisphere, instead, it underscores how political theatre increasingly masquerades as foreign policy.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar junta issues amnesties ahead of disputed elections: Myanmar’s military government has pardoned or dropped charges against more than 8,600 detainees ahead of December’s elections, portraying the move as an effort to ensure “free and fair” voting despite widespread concern that the polls are neither credible nor democratic. Analysts argue that the amnesty is a calculated PR exercise rather than a genuine step toward reform.

2️⃣ 🇭🇳 🇺🇸 Honduras election marked by high geopolitical stakes: Hondurans head to the polls amid deep public anxiety over corruption, democratic integrity, and national stability. Allegations of fraud, institutional paralysis, and tensions between electoral authorities have cast doubt on the credibility of the process — a fragile system still shadowed by the 2009 US-backed coup — while external actors including the US, have weighed in, intensifying political polarisation.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇨🇺 🇺🇸 UN human rights rapporteur urges US to lift Cuba sanctions: A UN envoy has called on the US to end its decades-long embargo on Cuba, saying the sanctions violate international legal norms and have severely worsened living conditions on the island. Washington blames Cuba’s economic crisis on its communist government. The UN argues that the sanctions “substantially exacerbate” the humanitarian situation and should be lifted.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Israel strikes Beirut days after Lebanon's president agrees to negotiations:  Israel has killed Hizbollah’s chief of staff, Haytham Ali Tabtabai, escalating tensions just two days after Lebanon’s president signalled readiness to enter negotiations under international sponsorship. The attack comes amid intensified Israeli pressure, backed by Washington, for Lebanon to disarm Hizbollah and engage in talks, even as Israel simultaneously expands military operations and violates ceasefire terms.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 General Burhan rejects US ceasefire plan: Sudan’s army chief Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan denounced a US-led peace proposal as “the worst yet,” arguing it would dismantle the armed forces, entrench the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and undermine state sovereignty. He accused the Quad mediators—particularly the UAE—of bias and of enabling RSF advances, warning that no agreement is possible unless paramilitaries withdraw from civilian areas and allow displaced people to return.

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Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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