Hello and welcome back. 

This week, EU capitals urge Brussels to roll out a new defence-financing scheme; Yemen’s parliament denounces the STC’s territorial advance; and Bulgaria’s prime minister steps down after mass protests. 

Meanwhile, President Trump has released a new national security strategy that softens its rhetoric toward China even as it reveals deeper strategic contradictions.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇶🇦 🇪🇬 🇹🇷 Hamas offers total disarmament in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza: Hamas has told regional mediators it is prepared to freeze all offensive activity from Gaza for up to a decade, and even bury its weapons, if Israel fully withdraws, proposing a long-term hudna guaranteed by Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. With no clear plan for the international stabilisation force envisioned under President Trump’s proposal, the broader political and security framework for any lasting agreement remains uncertain.

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 US seizes Venezuelan oil tanker: The US seized a large oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast, with President Trump confirming the operation while offering few details and suggesting the oil would be retained, prompting Caracas to denounce the move as “international piracy.” With public support for military intervention low and international concern mounting, the tanker’s seizure marks a significant step in a confrontation increasingly defined by sanctions, covert operations, and the threat of open conflict.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 UN seeks $23bn as global humanitarian system nears breaking point: The UN has launched a $23 billion appeal for 2026, warning that humanitarian agencies are overwhelmed, underfunded, and increasingly targeted, with 250 million people now in urgent need and funding at a decade low. UN aid chief Tom Fletcher said hunger, disease, and displacement surged in 2025 while 380 aid workers were killed.

4️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Thai PM dissolves parliament amid coalition rift and escalating border violence: Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul moved to dissolve parliament, saying he was “returning power to the people” after a breakdown with the opposition People’s Party made governing untenable. Meanwhile, Thailand faces escalating border clashes with Cambodia, causing the displacement of nearly a million people.

5️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 Yemen’s parliament condemns STC advance: Yemen’s parliament voiced “deep regret” over the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council’s seizure of Hadramout and al-Mahra, warning that the unilateral move violates the political framework binding the Presidential Leadership Council and risks empowering the Houthis. The legislature urged Saudi Arabia and the UAE to back the UN-recognised government and reverse any actions taken outside the agreed consensus, as the STC tightens control over the south and threatens to reignite a long-stalled civil war.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 TRUMP’S NEW SECURITY STRATEGY SOFTENS CHINA TONE WHILE EXPOSING STRATEGIC CONTRADICTIONS

The Trump administration’s long-delayed National Security Strategy (NSS), released on 5 December, was reportedly rewritten to soften its language on China in a shift driven partly by the looming 2026 midterms and Trump’s desire to avoid economic turbulence that could harm key domestic constituencies. Keen to preserve stable trade flows and nurture his personal rapport with Xi Jinping, Trump’s updated vision presents U.S.-China ties as a relationship between “near-peers”, a notable departure from the confrontational framing of his 2017 NSS.

Strategic aims vs. strategic realities

The Asia chapter, “Win the Economic Future, Prevent Military Confrontation,” reaffirms familiar pillars such as a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and backing for the Quad, but it also reflects Trump’s transactional worldview. This produces a series of contradictions: the NSS rejects “global domination” while citing the maintenance of U.S. “economic dominance and military superiority” as essential, and it warns against the rise of “dominant adversaries” even as it signals tolerance for great-power spheres of influence.

Gaps, inconsistencies and implications

The document also sidesteps how U.S. policy undermines its own goals. It urges allies to join Washington in forming an economic counterweight to China, yet many partners still recovering from Trump’s tariff regime now view both Washington and Beijing as strategic liabilities that require de-risking. Most strikingly, the NSS concludes that avoiding war with China hinges on America “winning” a long-term economic and technological contest, but offers no definition of what victory looks like or whether it is even plausible given its own assessment of China’s rising power.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Zelenskyy says US is urging Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk to form ‘economic zone’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Washington has floated a plan that would see Ukrainian forces pull back from parts of Donetsk to create a so-called “economic free zone,” a proposal Kyiv rejects without a nationwide vote. He confirmed that Ukraine has delivered a counter-proposal to the US, insisting that any territorial concessions be subject to public approval and questioning why Russia should not be required to withdraw an equal distance.

2️⃣ 🇭🇳 🇺🇸 Honduras lawmakers challenge election results: A congressional panel in Honduras warned it may refuse to certify the November 30 presidential election, alleging an “electoral coup” and improper involvement by U.S. President Donald Trump as the vote count dragged into an eleventh day. Inconsistencies in 15% of tally sheets and fraud claims from both the LIBRE party and Liberal candidate Salvador Nasralla have fuelled mass protests and deepened uncertainty.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇳 Rwanda-backed M23 advance triggers mass displacement in eastern Congo: Around 200,000 people have fled in the DRC as Rwanda-backed M23 rebels push toward the strategic border town of Uvira, just days after Donald Trump hosted the Rwandan and Congolese presidents to herald a supposedly “historic” peace deal. The UN reports at least 74 civilians killed amid intensified clashes with Congolese forces and Wazalendo militias, while M23 fighters seize new territory despite publicly affirming support for Qatari-led negotiations.

4️⃣ 🇧🇫 🇳🇬 🇧🇯 Burkinabe authorities detain Nigerian troops after unauthorised military landing: Burkina Faso is holding eleven Nigerian military personnel after a Nigerian C-130 made an unapproved landing in Bobo Dioulasso, an incident the Alliance of Sahel States denounced as an “unfriendly act” and a breach of its airspace. Nigeria insists the aircraft was forced to land due to technical problems and says the crew has been treated well, but the episode comes amid heightened regional tensions—just a day after Nigeria joined ECOWAS-aligned strikes to help foil an attempted coup in Benin.

5️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇷 🇪🇺 Doha forum spotlights Gaza, Syria, Iran and Ukraine diplomacy: Leaders at the Doha Forum warned that the Gaza ceasefire is at a critical juncture, with Türkiye pledging to push the process forward, and Syria’s President al-Sharaa accusing Israel of regional escalation while outlining a five-year transition to elections. Iran’s Mohammad Javad Zarif asserted Tehran’s continued security autonomy and called for improved Arab ties, as EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas reaffirmed the US as Europe’s key ally despite diplomatic strains regarding Ukraine.

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Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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