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📰 Syria erupts in violence

📰 Syria erupts in violence

and Putin’s demands revealed

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 16, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, sectarian clashes have gripped Syria’s Mediterranean coast, the former Philippine president faces charges of crimes against humanity at The Hague, and China, Russia, and Iran convene for trilateral nuclear talks. In Africa, France begins its withdrawal from Senegal, while South Sudan stands on the precipice of renewed conflict.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, a window for de-escalation emerges, as the region navigates a delicate balance between diplomacy and deterrence.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Ukraine to accept 30–day ceasefire, U.S. to lift freeze on military aid and intelligence: Following high-level talks in Jeddah, the U.S. agreed to immediately restore military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, contingent on Kyiv’s willingness to enact a 30-day ceasefire—provided Moscow does the same. Secretary of State Marco Rubio placed responsibility on Russia, stating, “The ball is now in their court.” The discussions also covered humanitarian relief, prisoner exchanges, and the U.S.-Ukraine rare-earths deal. Meanwhile, tensions escalated as Ukraine launched its largest-ever drone strike on Moscow, killing at least three and damaging infrastructure. While Zelensky and Trump praised the Jeddah talks, a major dispute remains: Ukraine demands U.S. security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression, but Trump insists Europe should bear that responsibility. As Western officials debate an international security force for Kyiv, Russia has yet to respond to the ceasefire proposal.

2️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇸🇩 South Sudan faces renewed conflict and state collapse: South Sudan teeters on the brink of renewed conflict as tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar escalate. On 4 March, a Nuer militia linked to Machar seized an army base in Nasir, prompting Kiir to arrest key Machar allies, further destabilising the fragile 2018 peace agreement. The war in Sudan has exacerbated South Sudan’s crisis, with economic strain from disrupted oil exports and shifting alliances between Kiir, Sudan’s military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF’s Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemedti'. Nuer militias may attempt to seize Upper Nile state capital Malakal—a multi-ethnic city—wherein fighting could see communal massacres that might in turn trigger fighting in the rest of the state or throughout the country, potentially merging with Sudan’s war and drawing in regional actors.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Damascus reaches agreement with SDF to integrate institutions into the Syrian state: Syria’s transitional government has reached a significant agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate the SDF into the country’s new armed forces. The deal, signed by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF leader Mazlum Kobane, emphasizes the unity of Syria’s territory and rejects any form of division. The agreement comes after years of efforts by the Syrian government to incorporate various armed groups, including the SDF, into the new Defense Ministry. Although the SDF played a key role in the fight against the Islamic State and has long been backed by the United States, the deal could help ease tensions with Turkey, which views some Kurdish factions within the SDF as linked to the PKK, a designated terrorist group.

4️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 Germany pushes for European intelligence sharing, Merz pursues French, British nuclear arms assistance: Germany’s top intelligence officials are advocating for a unified European intelligence-sharing network, warning that reliance on U.S. resources is no longer sustainable. Bundestag intelligence oversight chair Konstantin von Notz called for a "Euro Eyes" initiative to enhance intelligence cooperation among European states. His proposal follows Washington’s suspension of intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, raising fears that similar restrictions could extend to Germany. Meanwhile, Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz has suggested deeper nuclear cooperation with France and Britain while maintaining the U.S. nuclear umbrella. At an EU summit in Brussels, leaders agreed to boost defense spending to counter Russia’s growing threat, particularly in light of signals from the White House. Domestically, Merz faces challenges forming a coalition, balancing defense expansion with migration policies, and securing Green Party support for his proposed constitutional changes to fund military and infrastructure investments.

5️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Ansarullah reimplements Red Sea blockade after Israel blocks Gaza’s humanitarian aid access: Yemen’s Houthi movement has reinstated a blockade on Israeli vessels in the Red Sea, citing Israel’s continued restriction of aid and electricity to Gaza. The ban, announced after a deadline for humanitarian access expired, will remain until aid deliveries resume. Since Israel’s military campaign in Gaza began, the Houthis have targeted over 100 ships near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, sinking two, seizing one, and killing four people. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes in Gaza continue as the humanitarian situation worsens, with the UN warning of dwindling fuel supplies and disrupted food distribution. Talks on a ceasefire are ongoing in Qatar, while Israeli forces have escalated operations in the West Bank. In Jerusalem, settlers stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque under police protection, further heightening tensions in the region.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE CONFLICT: A DELICATE BALANCE BETWEEN DIPLOMACY AND DETERRENCE

Russian media has revelled in the discord between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after Trump reprimanded Zelenskyy during a February Oval Office meeting. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s deputy Security Council chairman, mocked Zelenskyy, calling him an "ungrateful pig" following the exchange.

However, the Kremlin's response has been more measured. Russian officials understand that the U.S.-Ukraine relationship remains crucial for any resolution to the conflict. While they hope Washington can weaken Ukraine's resolve and pressure it to make major concessions, they also recognize that a total breakdown in U.S.-Ukraine relations could complicate negotiations by drawing in European countries, which would likely bolster Ukraine’s resistance.

The Kremlin’s demands for peace remain unchanged, as President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist position persists: Ukraine must forgo NATO membership, recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, demilitarize, and lift anti-Russian sanctions. Although Putin publicly states his readiness to negotiate, he has made it clear that Russia’s territorial objectives are non-negotiable. While the United States has threatened sanctions on Russia in response to its continued offensive, these measures are unlikely to have significant impact, as Russia’s economy has proved resilient to Western sanctions. Furthermore, Trump’s idea that Ukraine’s mineral wealth could offer U.S. business guarantees is flawed. Ukraine, plagued by corruption and devastated by war, offers little in terms of attractive investment opportunities.

In terms of U.S.-Russia relations, recent diplomatic meetings suggest a potential thaw, but meaningful reconciliation remains distant. While some steps are being taken to restore communication, the geopolitical rivalry between the two nations endures. The Council on Foreign Relations writes that for U.S. diplomacy to be effective, it must balance deterrence with engagement, reinforcing Ukraine’s sovereignty while addressing Russia’s security concerns. This approach is key to a sustainable resolution to the conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel imposes new electricity blockade on Gaza: Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen has ordered an immediate halt to electricity supply in Gaza, further straining the enclave’s already fragile infrastructure. Cohen announced he had signed the order, declaring, “Enough with the talk, it’s time for action!” This move follows Israel’s week-long blockade of all goods into Gaza, after reneging on the ceasefire agreement that ended 15 months of genocide. Hamas condemned the decision as an attempt to pressure the group into releasing captives, calling it “cheap and unacceptable blackmail.” Aid groups have accused Israel of violating international humanitarian law by depriving over two million people of basic necessities. With bakeries shutting down and food supplies dwindling, civilians continue to endure dire conditions despite the pause in airstrikes.

2️⃣ 🇸🇳 🇫🇷 France begins Senegal withdrawal: France officially started its military withdrawal from Senegal, transferring two key facilities to Senegalese authorities as part of a broader realignment of its presence in West Africa. The French Embassy confirmed that control of the Maréchal and Saint-Exupéry districts near Hann Park was handed over on March 7, after being prepared for transfer since mid-2024. This move aligns with Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s push to expel foreign forces, echoing similar efforts in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. While a joint commission was established to oversee the withdrawal, the exact number of French troops still in Senegal remains undisclosed. France plans to significantly scale back its military presence in Africa, with Djibouti expected to remain its only permanent base on the continent, though Paris may still offer military training or support upon request.

3️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇳🇱 Former Philippine president faces charges of crimes against humanity at the Hague: Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte departed Manila for The Hague late Tuesday, just hours after being served an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant over alleged crimes against humanity linked to his deadly war on drugs. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. confirmed the flight, stating Duterte would face charges related to the campaign that left up to 30,000 dead, primarily poor urban men. Duterte’s daughter, Veronica, claimed he was “kidnapped,” while supporters argue the ICC lacks jurisdiction following the Philippines' 2019 withdrawal from the Rome Statute. However, the court maintains authority over crimes committed before the withdrawal. Rights groups have urged Manila to comply with the ICC, citing Duterte’s own statements advocating extrajudicial killings during his presidency.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 China, Russia, Iran hold trilateral nuclear talks: China hosts discussions with Russia and Iran to address Iran’s nuclear programme, the Foreign Ministry announced. The meeting in Beijing will be led by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov Sergey Alexeevich and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi representing their nations. The officials will exchange views on the nuclear issue and broader regional concerns. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed U.S. pressure for negotiations, following reports that President Donald Trump urged Tehran to engage in talks on a new nuclear agreement.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 Alawite populations targeted as sectarian clashes engulf Syria’s Mediterranean coast: Western Syria has descended into sectarian discord, with clashes between government and Assad loyalists intensifying. local media report over 1,000 deaths—mostly Alawites—including widespread civilian casualties, as reports emerge of executions, torture, and looting. Attacks on unarmed civilians have reignited fears that remnants of Bashar al-Assad’s ousted regime are reviving the brutal tactics of his rule, while government forces under President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have also been implicated in mass killings. Al-Sharaa has defended the government's actions, claiming its priority is restoring order rather than escalating violence. Syria’s Interior Ministry has blamed "undisciplined military elements" for the unrest, while regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, have condemned the bloodshed as a threat to Syria’s stability. Analysts caution that the escalating violence poses a significant obstacle to the Damascus administration's efforts to secure sanctions relief.