Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 Sudan’s secret arms route

📰 Sudan’s secret arms route

and Israel-Lebanon war looms

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
September 22, 2024

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Hello and welcome back!

This week in geopolitics: in Africa, the UAE has been found funnelling weapons into Sudan through the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group, while an Al-Qaeda affiliate launched a deadly attack in Bamako, killing scores.

In the U.S., Quad leaders from Japan, India, Australia, and the U.S. convened in Wilmington, Delaware, and former President Trump survived a second assassination attempt.

Our main story focuses on escalating violence between Israel and Hezbollah following Israeli strikes on communication devices across Lebanon and a recent airstrike on a Beirut suburb.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇳 🇯🇵 🇦🇺 The Quad meets in Wilmington, Delaware: In a hot mic moment at a Quad summit, U.S. President Joe Biden remarked to the leaders of Australia, India, and Japan that China’s aggressive actions are “testing us,” a statement that could contradict the group’s carefully worded declaration, which avoided naming Beijing directly. Biden made the comments at a farewell summit in Wilmington, Delaware, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. He noted that China’s provocations span the South China Sea, East China Sea, South Asia, and Taiwan Straits. While acknowledging President Xi Jinping's focus on domestic economic challenges, Biden suggested Xi is seeking diplomatic space to assert China’s interests more forcefully. However, Biden emphasised that recent U.S. efforts to ease tensions, including a call with Xi in April, were working to prevent escalation.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇷🇺 United Arab Emirates funnelling weapons into Sudan via Wagner: The UAE has reportedly used Russia's Wagner Group to transport arms to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) amid the country’s ongoing civil war, according to experts and paramilitary sources. Wagner, a Kremlin-linked mercenary group, allegedly smuggled weapons via the Central African Republic (CAR) to the RSF, which is fighting the Sudanese army. Rebels in CAR claimed to have intercepted UAE-supplied arms destined for the RSF, seizing shipments and capturing Wagner mercenaries. Although weapons transfers reportedly continued until April 2024, recent diplomatic reports suggest Russia is shifting support toward the Sudanese armed forces (SAF). The Sudan conflict, which began in April last year, has resulted in over 150,000 deaths and displaced more than 10 million people. Both sides in the war are accused of atrocities, with UN investigators highlighting ethnic violence by the RSF in Darfur. Russia and the UAE deny involvement in the arms transfers, though UN experts have deemed previous allegations credible.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 Former US President Trump Survives Second Assassination Attempt: A suspect has been arrested after a kalashnikov-style assault rifle and scope were found at a Donald Trump golf course in Florida in what authorities are calling an "attempted assassination" of the former president. The incident occurred on Sunday at the Trump International club in West Palm Beach, where Secret Service agents spotted the firearm through a fence in a wooded area near the course as Trump was playing. The FBI stated that this was the second attempt on Trump’s life in two months, following a shooting at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, where Trump was injured, a spectator was killed, and Secret Service snipers shot the assailant. Voter registration records in North Carolina link the suspect to a Democrat in Julien, who had recently voted in March. Social media accounts matching the suspect show support for Ukraine and posts backing both Republicans and Democrats, including Trump. During a recent presidential debate in Pennsylvania, Trump avoided directly stating whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war. Steve Bannon’s War Room co-host, Natalie Winters, reported that Trump was placed in a secure location after the incident.

4️⃣ 🇲🇱 Al-Qaeda affiliate attacks Bamako, killing ‘scores of people’: A jihadist attack in Mali's capital, Bamako, has raised concerns about the junta's ability to handle the 12-year insurgency. Though authorities confirmed fatalities, they withheld exact numbers. According to a security source, 77 were killed and 255 wounded. A confidential document indicated around 100 deaths, with 81 victims identified. Funerals for about 50 military police trainees took place on Thursday. Security forces arrested at least 15 suspects at the training camp. Islamic militants from Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), linked to al-Qaeda, targeted multiple locations, including an elite police training academy. The city's airport was temporarily shut down following the violence. Additionally, a World Food Programme (WFP) aircraft was damaged. It was used to transport aid workers and provide humanitarian assistance to remote regions of Mali.

5️⃣ 🇵🇬 Violent competition for gold mines is devastating Papua New Guinea, says UN: Papua New Guinea has authorised police to use "lethal force" in response to escalating tribal violence that has claimed dozens of lives. The United Nations estimated on Monday that between 20 and 50 people have been killed in the ongoing clashes in the Porgera Valley, Enga province, a region rich in gold deposits. Hundreds of tribal warriors are involved in the fighting, reportedly over control of local mining access. The violence escalated following an August attack on a landowner by unauthorised miners. Police reported that 300 shots had been fired in a single day as the conflict raged on. UN humanitarian adviser Mate Bagossy stated that the death toll had reached "at least 20" by Sunday, but local sources suggest it could be as high as 50.

Major Story

🇮🇱 🇱🇧 ISRAEL AND HIZBOLLAH ON THE BRINK OF ALL-OUT WAR

The Israeli military has once again escalated its airstrikes on southern Lebanon in response to Hizbollah’s weekend rocket barrages into Israel, which were the largest since the Gaza war began. On Saturday night, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched two waves of strikes, targeting around 400 sites in southern Lebanon, as sirens warned of Hizbollah rocket fire across northern Israel.

By early Sunday, more than 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon, some reaching Haifa, where buildings were damaged and cars set ablaze. The IDF reported that rockets were aimed at civilian areas, marking a significant escalation. Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency service treated four people for shrapnel injuries near Haifa.

Hizbollah claimed responsibility for a missile strike on Israel’s Ramat David airbase in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Lebanon. This marked Hizbollah’s furthest strike, roughly 50 kilometres from the border. Hizbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, declared that the group will cease its attacks only when Israel halts its operations in Gaza.

Earlier in the week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited the Ramat David airbase, warning that the conflict with Hizbollah had entered a "new phase." He commended Mossad for its intelligence successes in the region, hours after Israeli strikes hit Hizbollah communication hubs. These strikes, including a previous attack on pagers frequently used by Hizbollah fighters, left 42 dead and over 3,000 injured. Although widely believed to be an Israeli operation, official acknowledgment remains absent.

Israel’s northern airspace was closed in anticipation of Hizbollah's retaliation for the targeted assassination of Ibrahim Aqil, a senior commander in Hizbollah’s elite Radwan unit, alongside more than a dozen militants. Lebanese officials reported that three children and seven women were among the 37 killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut on Friday.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Gaza operations continue. On Saturday, an Israeli airstrike on a school sheltering civilians killed at least 22 people, mostly women and children. The Israeli military claimed the site was a Hamas base but provided no evidence.

The ongoing conflict has killed 23 Israeli soldiers and 26 civilians, turning northern Israel into a buffer zone. In Lebanon, over 500 people have been killed, including more than 100 civilians.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇴 Colombia-ELN peace talks suspended after deadly attack: Colombia suspended its peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN) on Wednesday after accusing the group of carrying out an attack that killed two soldiers and injured over 20 others. The government declared the peace process halted, stating that its continuation is contingent on the ELN showing a clear commitment to peace. This marks the most severe crisis in negotiations since President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first leftist leader, launched peace talks in November 2022 under his "total peace" policy. The ELN had ended its cease-fire with the government in August, but discussions were still ongoing. Founded in the 1960s by students and union leaders influenced by the Cuban Revolution, the ELN has about 6,000 fighters. It finances its operations through drug trafficking and illegal gold mining, and has been expanding into rural areas vacated by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) following the 2016 peace agreement.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 UN General Assembly votes to end Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories: The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has passed a resolution urging Israel to end its illegal occupation of Palestinian territories within a year, a decision hailed as "historic" by Palestine. The nonbinding resolution was approved with a 124-12 vote, while 43 countries abstained. The UNGA demanded that “Israel immediately cease its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory," labelling it a continuous violation of international law that holds Israel accountable. The resolution sets a 12-month deadline and calls for reparations to Palestinians for damages caused by the occupation. As a body dedicated to upholding "human rights and fundamental freedoms," the UNGA's vote highlights the significant global opposition to Israel's occupation of Palestine. The resolution also supports an advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which declared Israel’s occupation illegal and called for its termination.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 Iran asserts commitment to missile programme: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed on Monday that Tehran will not abandon its missile program, stressing that such a deterrent is crucial for national security, particularly in a region where Israel regularly launches missile strikes on Gaza. Despite years of pressure from the West to limit its missile development, Iran continues to resist these demands. Recently, the U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of supplying ballistic missiles to Russia for use in the Ukraine conflict, resulting in further sanctions on both Moscow and Tehran. Both nations have denied these allegations. Pezeshkian emphasised the importance of missile defence, drawing parallels with Gaza, where Israel often targets Hamas. He reiterated Iran’s stance that international efforts should focus on disarming Israel before placing similar expectations on Tehran. He also denied reports that Tehran has supplied hypersonic missiles to Yemen’s Houthi forces, following the group’s claim that it used such a missile in its recent strike on Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to make the Houthis pay a "heavy price" after the missile, for the first time, reached central Israel on Sunday.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇵🇭 South China sea sabre-rattling continues, after the US opts to keep missile system in the Philippines: The U.S. has no current plans to withdraw a mid-range missile system stationed in the Philippines—despite Chinese objections—and is assessing its viability in a potential regional conflict, sources have revealed. The Typhon system, capable of launching cruise missiles against Chinese targets, was initially deployed for joint exercises earlier this year but has since remained. As a key ally in the region, the Philippines plays a crucial role in U.S. strategy, particularly in supporting Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. Both China and Russia have condemned the deployment, accusing the U.S. of inciting an arms race. China's foreign ministry expressed concerns, saying the system threatens regional security and escalates tensions. The deployment coincides with heightened clashes between China and the Philippines over disputed areas in the South China Sea, leading to recent confrontations in the region.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇷🇺 🇮🇷 🇦🇲 🇦🇿 Russian delegation in Iran to discuss Zangezur corridor: Russia and Iran are at odds in the South Caucasus, with tensions rising over the proposed Zangezur corridor. This transport route would connect Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhchivan to Russia and Turkey, bypassing Armenia’s checkpoints and establishing a new link between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Russia, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, has voiced support for the corridor, but Iran sees it as a strategic threat and a violation of its borders. On 3 September, Tehran’s reformist government summoned Russian ambassador Alexey Dedov for talks, signalling Iran’s dissatisfaction with Moscow’s stance. The corridor would pass through Armenia’s Syunik province, but Azerbaijan insists on full sovereignty over the route. Iran strongly opposes this, fearing a change in its borders. The Zangezur corridor gained traction after Azerbaijan’s 2020 victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, a conflict that shifted regional power dynamics and unsettled Iran, which is wary of Russia’s role in the settlement.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🇱🇰 Sri Lanka’s election results being counted: Vote counting is underway in Sri Lanka's presidential election, with early official results from the Election Commission showing Marxist-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake in the lead. With roughly half of the votes tallied, Dissanayake holds 39.5%, followed by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa at 34%, and incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe trailing with 17.5%.