This week: South Korea elects a new president amid political turmoil, the Dutch government collapses, and Nawrocki defeats the pro-EU contender in Poland’s presidential runoff.

Meanwhile at the UN, sanctions on South Sudan and Libya are renewed, and the U.S. vetoes a Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇪🇺 Nawrocki defeats Trzaskowski in tight Polish presidential runoff: Karol Nawrocki narrowly defeated Rafał Trzaskowski in Poland’s presidential runoff, winning 50.89 percent to 49.11 percent, according to official results. His victory, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, deals a blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition, which lacks the parliamentary supermajority needed to override presidential vetoes. Although largely ceremonial, the presidency can block or delay legislation, making Nawrocki a significant obstacle to Tusk’s reform agenda. Nawrocki has pledged to resist EU federalism, block LGBTQ+ rights expansion, and oppose Ukraine’s NATO bid. His win highlights Poland’s enduring political divide between liberal urban voters and conservative rural areas. Despite scandals during his campaign, Nawrocki’s appeal to traditionalist voters held firm. The result signals ongoing gridlock and a heightened standoff between Poland’s executive and legislative branches.

2️⃣ 🇳🇱 Dutch government collapses: Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) has abruptly quit the Dutch coalition government, plunging The Hague into political turmoil. Wilders cited coalition resistance to his strict asylum demands as the breaking point, announcing his party’s withdrawal after partners refused to endorse PVV’s “ten-point plan.” Prime Minister Dick Schoof said he would submit the cabinet’s resignation to the King but continue in a caretaker role. Schoof condemned Wilders’ decision as “unnecessary and irresponsible,” while coalition leaders from BBB, NSC, and VVD echoed criticism. The coalition, already strained since its formation after Wilders' 2023 election win, faced growing tensions over asylum policy and foreign affairs. With new elections looming, Wilders' gamble could reshape Dutch politics, as opposition parties, including Frans Timmermans’ Green-Labour alliance, prepare for a fresh contest.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 U.S. vetoes UN security council resolution demanding immediate Gaza ceasefire: The U.S. vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, as Israeli airstrikes killed nearly 100 Palestinians within 24 hours. Fourteen other Council members backed the resolution. Washington objected, arguing the ceasefire proposal lacked direct linkage to the release of Israeli captives held in Gaza. U.S. envoy Dorothy Shea reaffirmed Washington’s stance, citing Israel’s right to self-defense. In contrast, China’s ambassador accused Israel of egregious violations of international law, with analysts describing the US position as increasingly isolated. Meanwhile, Israel’s military intensified operations in Gaza, warning Palestinians against approaching US-backed aid distribution points now designated “combat zones.” Aid access remains severely restricted, worsening famine conditions.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇧🇭 🇨🇴 🇨🇩 🇱🇻 🇱🇷 Five countries elected to the UN Security Council for 2026/27: Bahrain, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Latvia, and Liberia have secured seats as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, beginning two-year terms in January 2026. They will join Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia, who continue through 2026, succeeding Algeria, Guyana, South Korea, Sierra Leone, and Slovenia. The 15-member Council comprises five permanent veto-wielding powers—China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US—and ten rotating non-permanent members. Elected by a two-thirds General Assembly majority via secret ballot, the new members were chosen with strong support: Bahrain (186 votes), DRC (183), Liberia (181), Latvia (178), and Colombia (180). Notably, Latvia will serve for the first time, while Colombia, DRC, Bahrain, and Liberia return after prior terms. Seats are regionally allocated, balancing Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 U.S.-China tensions escalate as Hegseth strikes a hard line in Asia: Despite U.S. President Trump's recently friendly rhetoric toward Chinese President Xi and calls for closer ties, his administration's actions suggest a more hawkish stance. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that Asia faces a choice: align with the U.S. to “achieve peace through strength” or risk Chinese hegemony. Hegseth insisted allies cannot balance economic ties with China while relying on U.S. security guarantees, urging them to commit 5% of GDP to defense. Although regional actors share concerns about Beijing’s assertiveness, particularly in Taiwan and the South China Sea, Hegseth’s remarks offered scant room for diplomacy. Xi’s decision not to send Defense Minister Dong Jun to the forum only deepened the divide. As tensions escalate, maintaining high-level U.S.-China dialogue is crucial. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hints Trump and Xi could speak soon, offering a rare chance to reset fragile relations.

Major Story

🇵🇸 GAZA EXPOSES THE ARAB WORLD’S FORGOTTEN SOLIDARITY

The devastation in Gaza has become a mirror for the Arab world’s collective wounds. For over 18 months, the suffering of Palestinians has reignited a dormant solidarity across the 400 million Arabs, exposing not only shared anger but also a stark sense of vulnerability. Gaza’s plight highlights a deeper precarity stretching across Arab societies, aggravated by economic disparities and democratic stagnation, with no robust regional architecture to guarantee security or unity. Arab traditions and Islamic teachings have long championed communal responsibility and collective protection, yet these values have been conspicuously absent. While regional powers lobbied the U.S. to lift sanctions on Syria, Gaza remains isolated under blockade and bombardment, laying bare the failure of both states and civil societies to act decisively.

The Failure of the Arab League

Established in 1945, the Arab League today is seen as a relic, powerless to defend Gaza or uphold its own defence pact of 1950. While non-state actors challenge Israel, Arab governments avoid confrontation, leaving treaties and declarations unfulfilled. Reviving the League would require radical reform: an elected Arab parliament representing citizens directly, binding governments to the collective will rather than fragmented state interests.

Unrealised Potential and the ‘Paradox of Riches’

Despite vast assets—over 13 million square kilometres of land and nearly 500 million people—the Arab world remains geopolitically underpowered. In contrast to the EU’s economic cohesion, the Arab states lack a unified political or strategic framework. Their combined GDP is dwarfed by that of the U.S. or even Germany, illustrating a chronic underperformance relative to their demographic and territorial advantages. The irony deepens when compared to Israel, a state of just ten million people and a tiny territorial footprint, which has succeeded in projecting formidable regional power. Arabs once took pride in a common linguistic and cultural heritage; rekindling that collective identity could form the foundation for renewed solidarity.

Toward an Arab Reset

The Arab world must move beyond fragmented nationalism toward genuine regional cooperation. Gaza’s plight stands as a stark reminder that solidarity cannot be deferred. As Toda Institute’s Larbi Sadiki writes, a democratic, inclusive Arab League, grounded in collective security, economic integration, and shared values, could be the first step in restoring Arab agency in a rapidly shifting world order.

Other News

1️⃣🇺🇳 🇱🇾 🇸🇸 UN sanctions on South Sudan and Libya survive amid growing resistance: Defying growing scepticism toward sanctions, the UN Security Council last week renewed the arms embargo on South Sudan and extended authorisation for the EU’s naval mission enforcing Libya’s embargo. Both measures narrowly passed, overcoming resistance from African states, China, and Russia, who have pushed for loosening sanctions across the continent. With Pakistan replacing Japan on the Council, many anticipated the mandates would fail without vetoes. However, South Sudan’s escalating conflict swayed opinion, while quiet concerns among Algeria, Sierra Leone, and Somalia—despite an African Union request to lift the embargo—led them to abstain, joined by China, Pakistan, and Russia. In Libya’s case, EU diplomacy secured Tripoli’s agreement by establishing a joint working group over the contested Operation Irini. The votes signal that while pressure to erode sanctions remains, many states still view them as a useful, if contested, tool.

2️⃣ 🇰🇭 🇹🇭 🇺🇳 Cambodia to seek ICJ ruling on border dispute with Thailand: Cambodia announced plans to petition the UN’s International Court of Justice (ICJ) over its ongoing border disputes with Thailand, following a recent deadly clash. The Cambodian National Assembly, dominated by Prime Minister Hun Manet’s party, endorsed the move. While Thailand acknowledged Cambodia’s right to file a case, Thai officials stressed it would not disrupt bilateral talks. A fatal incident near Morokot village last week reignited tensions, with each side blaming the other. Hun Manet confirmed plans to seek ICJ clarification on disputed sites, including the Ta Moan Thom and Ta Kro Bei temples, even if Thailand declines participation. Despite calling for calm, the appeal touches a sensitive nerve in Thailand, where past ICJ rulings on Preah Vihear temple remain politically charged.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇵🇰 🇧🇾 🇮🇩 🇨🇺 China launches global mediation body with support from dozens of countries: China and over 30 nations, including Pakistan, Indonesia, Belarus, and Cuba, signed the Convention on the Establishment of the International Organization for Mediation (IOMed) in Hong Kong, marking the group's launch. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described the initiative as offering “Chinese wisdom” to resolve international disputes through dialogue and consensus rather than confrontation. Positioned as the world’s first intergovernmental mediation body, IOMed will promote amicable dispute resolution and support UN Charter principles. Headquartered in Hong Kong, it highlights the city’s legal advantages under both common law and Chinese legal systems. Scholars say IOMed complements existing bodies like the International Court of Justice by institutionalising mediation globally. Hong Kong officials indicated the organisation could begin operations by year-end, with participation from around 50 countries and 20 organisations.

4️⃣ 🇧🇩 Bangladesh tribunal accepts crimes against humanity charges against Sheikh Hasina: Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal has formally accepted charges against ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, accusing her of crimes against humanity linked to last year’s student-led uprising. Proceedings opened Sunday with orders to produce Hasina and two other accused—former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan and ex-police chief Chowdhury Abdullah Al Mamun—on June 16. Hasina remains in exile in India, Khan is missing, and Mamun has been detained. The tribunal alleges Hasina orchestrated mass killings, violence against civilians, and denial of medical aid during the unrest. The Awami League, now banned, has criticised the tribunal’s impartiality. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s Supreme Court ruled the Jamaat-e-Islami party can seek reinstatement as a political party. Interim leader Muhammad Yunus, who replaced Hasina, plans to hold national elections by June, though tensions remain with opposition groups over the timeline.

5️⃣ 🇰🇷 Lee Jae-myung wins South Korean presidency after political crisis: Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung secured victory in South Korea’s snap election, winning 49.42% of the nearly 35 million votes cast. His conservative opponent Kim Moon-soo gained 41.15%. The election followed the impeachment of former president Yoon Suk Yeol, whose brief imposition of martial law triggered mass outrage. Lee, a former human rights lawyer, pledged to unify a deeply divided country grappling with economic challenges and political instability. Despite facing pending corruption charges, Lee campaigned on promises to revive the economy, address inequality, and pursue a more diplomatic approach toward North Korea. He also reaffirmed commitment to South Korea’s alliances with the U.S. and Japan. With no transition period, Lee will immediately assume office. The high voter turnout signals both deep public frustration and resilience within South Korean democracy.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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