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📰 South Korea eyes nukes

📰 South Korea eyes nukes

and Taiwan-China tensions rise

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 29, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

In the Middle East, Hizbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in Israeli airstrikes.

In Africa, Sudan's army launched a major offensive in Khartoum to reclaim areas held by the paramilitary RSF, while a Human Rights Watch report exposed war crimes by Rwanda and the M23 in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Meanwhile, in Myanmar, anti-junta forces targeted Mandalay, and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy visited the White House amid growing partisan support for Ukraine in the US.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Hizbollah secretary general killed in Beirut: Grief and shock swept through Martyrs’ Square in Beirut on Saturday as those fleeing Israel’s relentless bombing of Dahiyeh learned of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death. The Shia group confirmed Nasrallah’s death after Israeli airstrikes the previous evening killed him and several senior commanders. The strikes flattened six residential buildings, prompting Israeli authorities to issue evacuation orders for surrounding areas, warning of further attacks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called the assassination a move that "will reshape the region," a sentiment echoed by allies in Washington. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi condemned the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan, also killed in the strikes, calling it a "horrible crime" that would not go unanswered. European foreign ministers, including those from the UK, Germany, and France, have intensified calls for a ceasefire amid fears of the conflict spreading. Meanwhile, the Gaza health ministry reports at least 41,595 Palestinians killed and 96,251 injured in Israeli strikes on Gaza since October 7.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 Sudanese Armed Forces launch Khartoum offensive: Sudan's army has launched a major offensive in Khartoum to reclaim areas controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—after it fell to the paramilitary in the early stages of the conflict—military sources told Al Jazeera. Air raids targeted RSF positions in the capital and northern Khartoum, marking the army's largest assault in months. Al Jazeera reported heavy fighting near the presidential palace, with the army advancing and seizing key bridges linking Omdurman to Khartoum. At least four civilians were killed and 14 wounded in RSF artillery shelling. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023, has displaced over 10 million people, including two million who fled Sudan.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Human Rights Watch report exposes war crimes committed by Rwanda, M23 in DR Congo: Throughout 2024, the Rwandan army and M23 rebels relentlessly shelled displacement camps and densely populated areas near Goma in eastern Congo, according to Human Rights Watch. The Congolese army's deployment near these camps only heightened the danger, as both factions have been implicated in killings, sexual violence, and obstructing humanitarian aid. In January, Rwanda and M23 forces cut off key supply routes to Goma, extending their control over North Kivu. Civilians have been trapped in the crossfire, with over 10% of young women in camps experiencing rape. Human Rights Watch recorded five unlawful attacks, including a May 3 strike that killed 17 civilians. The international community has called for an end to abuses and the prosecution of commanders responsible for war crimes.

4️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇺🇳 Taliban to be referred to The Hague over violations of women’s rights: Germany, Australia, the Netherlands, and Canada have warned they may refer the Taliban to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over serious violations of women’s rights in Afghanistan, according to German media reports on Wednesday. Citing a draft statement from New York, these countries urged the Taliban to comply with their international obligations under the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW). They warned that if the violations are not addressed promptly, they may initiate arbitration and ultimately bring the case to the ICJ. This warning follows the Taliban's recent laws that significantly curtail women's and girls' rights in Afghanistan, drawing widespread condemnation. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres criticised these actions, stating they formalise the systematic violation of Afghan women’s human rights.

5️⃣ 🇲🇲 Anti-junta forces target Mandalay: Eyewitnesses in Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city, describe it as increasingly resembling a city under siege. However, despite armed groups nearing its outskirts, many residents do not see them as the enemy. While conflict has long plagued Myanmar’s borderlands, predominantly home to ethnic minorities, the largely Bamar central regions had been spared since World War II. That changed in 2021 when the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, igniting political turmoil and civil war. Since then, the military has faced significant defeats by ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy militias. The most surprising development has been the anti-coup alliance’s capture of four towns in northern Mandalay, bringing them within striking distance of the city’s nearly 2 million residents.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇹🇼 NEW PRESIDENT’S TOUGH STANCE ON AUTONOMY ESCALATES TAIPEI-BEIJING TENSIONS, SAYS CRISIS GROUP REPORT

Background

Tensions are escalating in the Taiwan Strait as President Lai Ching-te’s new administration in Taipei adopts a firmer stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty and autonomy from China. This approach is deemed necessary in response to Beijing's increasingly aggressive behaviour, particularly after what China perceived as its extension of a goodwill gesture toward Lai's incoming government. In reaction, China has intensified military displays and is likely to continue challenging Taiwan's de facto sovereignty. While outright conflict seems improbable in the near term, sustained confrontation may impede both governments' ability to effectively manage their differences. As per an International Crisis Group report, It is essential for Taipei to adopt a more measured tone regarding its sovereignty, while Beijing should reduce military harassment of Taiwan, while Washington must also underscore the mutual benefits of de-escalation to both sides.

Taiwan-China relations

In his first 100 days, President Lai has confronted Chinese aggression with a more assertive stance, further heightening tensions. His inauguration speech reiterated the Democratic Progressive Party's position that Taiwan is a sovereign state, marking a departure from the ambiguous language used by his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. While Tsai skillfully balanced assertions of sovereignty to avoid exacerbating relations with China, Lai’s explicit challenge to Beijing’s claims signals a firm commitment to Taiwan's autonomy, especially in light of the growing pressures from China during Tsai’s tenure.

For China, Lai’s assertive inauguration speech was a significant provocation. Despite previous criticisms of him during the campaign, Beijing had softened its rhetoric post-election, framing the cross-strait relationship in terms of shared cultural and historical ties. However, Lai’s strong assertion of Taiwan’s separate identity prompted China to respond with increased military activity and severe denunciations directed at both Taipei and Washington. The timing of these escalated reactions indicates that China initially expected a more moderate approach from Lai.

Washington’s Role

As the divide between Taiwan and China deepens, Washington’s role becomes increasingly significant yet complex. International Crisis Group suggests that the U.S. should privately convey to both parties the advantages of cautious management of tensions while firmly opposing any unilateral changes to the status quo. In dealings with Beijing, Washington must emphasise the reputational costs of aggressive posturing and reassure Taiwan of ongoing U.S. support for its defence reforms. It is equally important to encourage Taipei to adopt a more measured tone regarding its sovereignty, reinforcing the benefits of diplomatic restraint in maintaining international support.

The Path Ahead

While maintaining a posture of military readiness, China acknowledges the risks associated with a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, particularly the potential for direct conflict with the U.S. and challenges stemming from its own economic situation. Despite retaliatory measures, Beijing remains confident in the prospect of eventual unification and seeks to downplay the significance of Lai’s tougher stance. No clear political resolution appears imminent, but reducing immediate tensions would benefit both sides and facilitate better long-term management of their differences. Lai should strive for a more balanced approach in affirming Taiwan’s sovereignty, while Beijing ought to temper its rhetoric and military manoeuvres.

International Crisis Group asserts that strengthening communication channels between the Democratic Progressive Party and Beijing is crucial. Although formal political dialogue may not be feasible soon, fostering trust through back channels and informal discussions can help reduce misunderstandings. Track II initiatives such as resuming student exchanges and tourism could contribute to a more conducive atmosphere for improved relations.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Zelenskyy visits the White House, as partisan support grows: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US President Joe Biden and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in Washington, seeking continued support ahead of the US election. Zelenskyy urged for more military aid, regardless of the election's outcome. While Biden and Harris reaffirmed their commitment to backing Ukraine, Republican candidate Donald Trump and some members of his party have expressed scepticism about ongoing assistance. Biden pledged nearly $8bn in additional security aid and vowed to disburse all approved funds before his term ends in January 2025, emphasising Ukraine's need to win the war.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Washington earmarks $8.7 billion in military aid for Israel, despite calling for Lebanon and Gaza ceasefires: This funding, part of a broader $26.38 billion national security supplemental passed by Congress in April, is ostensibly intended to strengthen Israel’s defence capabilities amidst escalating tensions in the region. Israel’s Ministry of Defense emphasised that the aid package helps maintain the country’s qualitative military edge and supports its ongoing military efforts. However, the announcement comes amid increasing international pressure for a ceasefire. On Wednesday, the U.S., European Union, several Arab nations, and the UN called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon, where the conflict between Israel and Hizbollah threatens to engulf the region further. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) also warned of the potential for genocide as Lebanon’s death toll has surpassed 700, with entire families among the casualties. Critics argue the aid package effectively gives Israel a "carte blanche" to continue its military campaign, raising concerns about the humanitarian toll and the broader impact on regional stability. Despite international appeals for a cessation of hostilities, Israel has shown no signs of slowing down its military actions, and the latest U.S. aid underscores Washington’s commitment to supporting Israel amid the ongoing violence.

3️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 South Korea discusses development of nuclear weapons: During his recent confirmation hearing, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun indicated that acquiring nuclear weapons is “among all possible options” to counter North Korea's growing nuclear threat, signalling a shift toward normalising the idea of nuclear armament in Seoul. Political leaders in South Korea often discuss nuclear weapons to show strength, intimidate North Korea, or gain leverage in negotiations with Washington. Notably, some American scholars and national security figures have also endorsed this notion. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently asserted that there is “no reason we should object to” South Korea developing its own nuclear arsenal. Public opinion polls consistently show majority support in South Korea for acquiring nuclear weapons, though few address the associated costs.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇹🇷 World leaders call on UN General Assembly to take coercive measures against Israel: Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sharply criticised the UN's inaction on Gaza and accused Israel of turning the Palestinian territory into the "world’s largest graveyard for women and children." Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York, Erdogan stated, "In Gaza, not only are children dying, but so is the United Nations system. The values the West claims to uphold are dying, truth is dying, and the hopes for a more just world are fading—one by one." A vocal critic of Israel's offensive, Erdogan condemned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government for escalating conflict in the Middle East and called on the global community to halt what he described as Netanyahu’s “network of murder.” Other regional leaders also voiced concerns at the UNGA. Jordan's King Abdullah II dismissed any notion of Jordan becoming an "alternative homeland" for Palestinians, calling their forced displacement a "war crime." Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani condemned Israel's actions in Gaza as "genocide." Leaders have urged the swift implementation of a ceasefire, a prisoner exchange, and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Gaza.

5️⃣ 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka elects anti-corruption candidate Dissanayake: Anura Kumara Dissanayake has been declared the winner of Sri Lanka's presidential election, according to the Election Commission. The 55-year-old leftist leader of the People’s Liberation Front (JVP) and National People’s Power (NPP) alliance secured 42.31% of the vote. Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa finished second with 32.76%, while outgoing President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who imposed tough IMF-backed austerity measures during the 2022 economic collapse, came third with 17.27%. This election marked Sri Lanka's first-ever presidential race decided by a second round of counting, as no candidate reached the required 50%. The economy was the central issue, with Dissanayake promising welfare reforms to ease hardship and criticising the austerity measures tied to the IMF loan deal. Wickremesinghe's failure to address the cost-of-living crisis, along with his ties to the Rajapaksa family blamed for the economic collapse, likely eroded his support. Dissanayake seized the moment, vowing to reshape the island’s "corrupt" political culture.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇪🇬 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 Egyptian ship delivers ‘significant consignment’ of military materiel to Mogadishu: An Egyptian ship has delivered a substantial shipment of military equipment to Somalia, according to security officials in Mogadishu. Somali Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur expressed gratitude to Egypt in a social media post, although he did not explicitly reference the weapons. This is the second such delivery from Egypt in a month, amid strained relations between Somalia and its former close ally, Ethiopia. Egypt, a long-time rival of Ethiopia, has seized the opportunity to strengthen ties with Somalia, raising concerns about growing tensions in the Horn of Africa. The shipment, transported by a warship that arrived on Sunday, reportedly included anti-aircraft guns and artillery, according to Reuters, citing security and port officials. Ethiopia, which has been a key supporter of Somalia in its fight against al-Shabaab militants, has recently angered Somalia by signing a preliminary agreement with Somaliland—a territory Somalia considers its own—to lease part of Somaliland’s coastline. Meanwhile, tensions between Addis Ababa and Cairo have persisted for over a decade due to Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the River Nile, which Egypt views as a potential threat to its critical water supply.

🇸🇾 New cabinet formed by the Assad regime: Syria’s Prime Minister announced his new Cabinet on Monday, appointing Bassam Sabbagh as foreign minister, according to state media. Sabbagh previously served as a deputy to former Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, who is now vice president for foreign and information policies. Earlier this month, President Bashar Assad named former Communications Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali as the new prime minister following July’s parliamentary elections. Key ministries remain unchanged, with Maj. Gen. Ali Abbas as defence minister and Maj. Gen. Mohammed Khaled Rahmoun as interior minister. Jalali has been under European Union sanctions since October 2014 for the government's crackdown during Syria’s civil war, which has resulted in nearly half a million deaths since 2011. The announcement of the new Cabinet came a day after Assad issued an amnesty for crimes committed before September 22, including for those who failed to complete compulsory military service. Similar amnesties have been granted in previous years.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇮🇶 Iraqi Kurdistan prepares for its sixth parliamentary elections: After multiple delays, Iraqi Kurdistan—an autonomous region in northern Iraq, governed by its own parliament and president—is set to hold its sixth parliamentary elections in late October 20, facing challenges mainly from tensions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The political landscape has shifted, with changes like a revamped minority quota system and oversight by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). Growing public frustration with the KDP and PUK complicates their hold on power; loosening their grip may ease discontent but could also empower opposition parties. While the KDP’s position remains strong, splinter factions like the Popular Front are expected to challenge the PUK, and the National Stance will vie with the Gorran Movement. Public trust in the electoral process has eroded, with only 35.7% voter turnout in the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary elections, a trend likely to continue if these polls reinforce the status quo.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇶 Washington to withdraw all troops from Iraq by end of 2026: Washington and Baghdad have reached an agreement to withdraw U.S. and other foreign troops from Iraq by the end of 2026, according to U.S. defence officials. This marks the latest effort to end America’s two-decade military presence in the country. Under the plan, hundreds of U.S. and coalition troops stationed in Baghdad, western Iraq, and other areas are expected to depart by September next year, followed by a further withdrawal from the northern city of Erbil by the end of 2025, officials said. A senior administration official confirmed that while the framework for the withdrawal is complete, some final details—particularly involving coalition partners—are still being finalised. A formal announcement of the deal could be made next week, military officials noted. After 2026, a small contingent of U.S. forces is expected to remain in Iraq in advisory and logistical roles, supporting American troops stationed in Syria under a new bilateral security agreement. Pressure for the U.S. withdrawal has long come from Iranian-backed Shia militias, which exert significant influence over Iraq’s security forces and government, pushing for a reduced U.S. military footprint in the country.