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🇿🇦 South Africa goes to the polls

🇿🇦 South Africa goes to the polls

what is at stake?

May 28, 2024

This week, South Africa goes to the polls to vote in national and provincial elections. But what is at stake?

Find out here ⤵️

Background

The African National Congress (ANC), South Africa’s ruling party since 1994, is projected to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time in the country’s post-apartheid era. Despite this, ANC leaders are confident they will secure over 50 percent of the vote, as they did in 2019 with 57.5 percent. If forced to form a coalition, the ANC will need to act swiftly, as the constitution allows only two weeks to establish an agreement in the National Assembly after elections.

Voters will cast their ballots for parties to appoint representatives to the National Assembly, which will elect the president responsible for forming a new government. Additionally, voting will take place for provincial legislatures, which will choose provincial premiers. For the first time, independent candidates can run for public office, although few are expected to win.

The key issues

Power and wealth remain concentrated in a small minority, while extreme poverty makes South Africa one of the most unequal and dangerous societies in the world. Speaking to the Guardian, political analyst William Gumende said "Everywhere in the country, crime is the thing that people talk about, whether you’re black or white... It deprives South Africans from living a full life. It has sucked the soul out of the country."

Steve Bloomfield suggests that if the ANC falls below 50% and is forced into a coalition, it can only blame itself. The legacy of corruption and misadministration under President Jacob Zuma, Ramaphosa’s predecessor, has 'hollowed out the state.' Nearly half of South Africans are unemployed, welfare systems are inadequate, while basic public services remain lackluster. Crisis Group writes that, ‘Many South Africans worry that such opportunistic alliances with minor political forces set a bad precedent for the country’s provincial and national leadership structures, risking further erosion of the national government’s credibility.’

Business groups and investors are concerned that the ANC might align with populist rivals like Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), potentially straining the economy further. Others believe the ANC will seek stability by partnering with smaller parties like Velenkosini Hlabisa’s Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), which is less likely to hinder economic reforms.

Political analysts have found it difficult to predict the outcome of these elections. Nearly 28 million of the 62 million population are registered to vote, with 42 percent of voters aged 40 or under, the highest proportion of young voters to date. One third of voters remain undecided.

One thing people can be sure of, however, is that personalities, not parties, will dominate the political landscape.

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The key personalities

Cyril Ramaphosa

South Africa's incumbent president and leader of the ANC seeks a second term, amid challenges to his party's popularity. A champion of the anti-apartheid movement, Ramaphosa briefly withdrew from politics after 1994, before returning as deputy president in 2014 and assuming the presidency in 2018. Despite being seen as more moderate than his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, Ramaphosa’s tenure has been blemished by scandals, including the 2022 Phala Phala affair. Additionally, widespread unemployment, infrastructure issues, and economic disparities have marred his tenure and the ANC's reputation, leading to declining voter support. Particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma's stronghold, the ANC faces tough competition.

Jacob Zuma

Former President Zuma emerges as a wildcard in this election. He's celebrated by some for his anti-apartheid activism, while for others, his long list of corruption scandals looms large. Despite a 2021 conviction, he was set to run for parliament until a court ruling blocked him from the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party's candidate list. Now, he's testing his influence as a kingmaker, aiming to disrupt the ANC's dominance, especially in his home province of KwaZulu Natal. With MK gaining traction, Zuma seeks to weaken the ANC's support, potentially nationally, by fielding lesser-known candidates, including his daughter.

John Steenhuisen

Steenhuisen, leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), portrays his party as South Africa’s liberators from the ANC. Despite criticism for primarily representing the middle class, the DA remains the second-largest party, polling at 18.6 percent. Steenhuisen spearheaded the formation of the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) coalition, holding 144 parliamentary seats. However, the coalition faces challenges due to its predominantly white leadership, which hampers efforts to attract Black voters.

Julius Malema

Founder of the marxist Economic Freedom Party (EFF), Malema advocates for the rights of Black South Africans and criticizes the ANC's neglect of their needs, and supports radical land redistribution and nationalization of mines. Expelled from the ANC in 2012, Malema founded the EFF the following year. Despite facing numerous accusations of hate speech, Malema remains influential, particularly amongst young people. The EFF won 44 parliament seats in 2019 and is expected to secure 11.4 percent of the vote in the upcoming elections, according to opinion polls.

Raymond Zondo

South Africa's Chief Justice will play a crucial role in potential post-election legal battles, especially with the anticipated involvement of coalitions. His leadership of the 2018 Zondo Commission, investigating corruption allegations against former President Zuma, highlights his significance in the country's electoral landscape.

Risks going forward

Following the elections, analysts recommend that the ANC consider partnering with smaller, issue-specific parties to ensure policy continuity, rather than larger opposition factions solely focused on ousting the ANC. The IFP, led by Velenkosini Hlabisa, is a potential ally, but any coalition would require at least 50% of the combined vote or involvement of even smaller parties. Concerns arise over the scapegoating of undocumented migrants for crime and economic woes, fueling xenophobia. Human Rights Watch has urged for moderation to prevent further violence.

Post-election coalition talks, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, could trigger unrest, similar to the 2021 turmoil following Zuma's imprisonment. Excluded parties may resort to protest or rioting. Restraint and confidence in the electoral commission are crucial to uphold South Africa's reputation for credible elections.