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This week has brought significant geopolitical developments spanning Sudan, Haiti, DR Congo, and across the Middle East. Headlines once again focus on the Israel-Gaza conflict, with protests expanding from North American tertiary institutes to Europe and beyond, coinciding with ceasefire negotiations in Egypt. Meanwhile, power dynamics in the Sahel continue to shift, highlighted by Russia's occupation of a former U.S. military base, while Panama eagerly awaits its new president.

As always - more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇨🇴🇮🇱 Colombia cuts ties with Israel: Colombia has joined the ranks of Latin American nations severing diplomatic ties with Israel amidst its Gaza military campaign. The decision by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, branding Israel's actions as "genocide," was announced during a rally in Bogota on Wednesday, coinciding with International Workers’ Day. Speaking to a large crowd, Petro emphasized, “If Palestine dies, humanity dies.” This move, while echoing sentiments across the region, holds unique implications for Colombia due to longstanding reliance on security hardware from Israel. The decision takes effect Thursday, and follows similar postures from other Latin American states.

2️⃣🇸🇩 Siege of El Fasher: El Fasher, the largest city in Sudan’s Darfur region and the final major urban center under SAF control, has emerged as a focal point of the relentless conflict gripping Sudan, as the RSF prepares for a looming siege. Sudan's brutal civil war, ignited by a rift between the country's top military figures Hemedti and al-Burhan following a joint coup, has intensified over the past year. While El Fasher has enjoyed relative respite from the widespread violence and ethnic tensions plaguing Darfur, recent weeks have seen it encircled by the RSF, the predominant force in the area. This vital humanitarian hub, accommodating hundreds of thousands of displaced individuals, now stands on the brink of conflict. UN reports document that bombardments and skirmishes have already claimed the lives of 43 people, highlighting the pressing need for intervention.

3️⃣🇺🇸 College campus protests: Protests continue to sweep across college campuses in North America and beyond, with students decrying Israel's indiscriminate bombing in Gaza and its obstruction of humanitarian aid to Palestinians. While President Biden has maintained that these protests won't sway his approach vis-a-vis Israel-Gaza, recent actions, like discouraging an assault on Rafah, hint at a shift in US-Israel relations. The protests are also not without domestic consequences, as they could significantly impact Biden's domestic standing and potentially influence his upcoming presidential campaign.

4️⃣🇭🇹 Violent escalations in Haiti: Port-au-Prince is reeling from a fresh wave of violence in Haiti as gunmen launched devastating attacks, torching homes and engaging in prolonged clashes with law enforcement. This represents one of the most severe outbreaks since the tenure of Haiti's interim prime minister, Michel Patrick Boisvert, began. The assaults, which compelled hundreds to evacuate, ravaged neighborhoods such as Solino and Delmas 18, 20, and 24. UN figures underscore a grim reality: over 2,500 people were killed or injured from January to March, marking a staggering 50% increase compared to last year. Amidst this chaos, a mass exodus is unfolding, with 90,000 fleeing the capital in just a month, seeking refuge from gang-controlled areas that have encroached upon once-stable neighborhoods.

5️⃣🌏 World Press Freedom day: As the death toll rises in the Israel-Gaza crisis, more than 300 BBC World Service journalists remain in exile amid a global crackdown on press freedom. Simultaneously, a distressing number of journalists in Gaza and South Lebanon have been killed. World Press Freedom Day serves as a stark reminder of the precarious state of journalists' rights and safety worldwide, and reports of a surge in imprisoned writers and journalists in China intensifies these concerns.

Major Story

🇨🇩 Bomb attack kills children in DR Congo’s Goma region

This week, attacks on two camps for internally displaced people took place in eastern DR Congo's North Kivu province – resulting in the deaths of at least 12 individuals, including children – as reported by local officials, an aid group, and the United Nations.

The UN stated that bombs struck camps in Lac Vert and Mugunga, located near Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu. These attacks were denounced by a UN spokesperson as a "flagrant violation of human rights and international humanitarian law," possibly constituting war crimes. Amidst the turmoil, non-government aid organisation Save The Children reported being on-site at one of the camps when shells struck near a busy marketplace. The organization stated that dozens, mostly women and children, were injured, while the death toll remained uncertain.

M23, a predominantly Tutsi rebel group in Eastern DRC, consists mainly of former Congolese soldiers who defected from the national army in 2012. The name "M23" symbolizes the March 23, 2009 peace agreement, which they claim the government violated. Amidst their subsequent unrest between the group and the Congolese military, M23 are believed to be heavily supported by DRC’s neighbours, Rwanda.

For the last two years, M23 has launched a two-year offensive towards the eastern city of Goma, driving thousands to seek refuge in the city from surrounding areas. Minerals are at the heart of the conflict, with over 200 armed groups competing for control, particularly of valuable resources like cobalt and coltan. These minerals are crucial for manufacturing batteries used in electric vehicles, as well as in various gadgets like PlayStations and smartphones.

According to Bintou Keita, head of the UN's DRC peacekeeping mission MONUSCO, speaking before the UN Security Council this week, the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo is rapidly deteriorating. Keita warned of a humanitarian crisis reaching catastrophic levels, with one in four Congolese facing hunger and malnutrition. She noted that over 7.1 million people have been displaced in the country, an increase of 800,000 since her last briefing three months ago.

Shelley Thakral, a spokesperson for the World Food Programme, described the situation as dire after her return from Goma to Kinshasa. She expressed concern over the overwhelming conditions people are facing, stating that many have been forced to flee without their belongings. Now, they find themselves in overcrowded camps with little hope of returning to normalcy.

The conflict has intensified in eastern Congo since February, with heavy fighting between the Congolese army and M23. This escalation has led to hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing their homes as the rebels gain ground.

There has been little decisive action taken by institutions from within the DRC against either M23 or the country’s proliferation of resource-driven patronage networks, and little hope lingers after the re-election of President Felix Tshisekedi – whose landslide victory in December 2023 secured him a second term – in ‘farcical’ circumstances, according to opposition parties and various independent groups.

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Other News

1️⃣🇮🇱🇵🇸 Threats against the ICC amidst speculation of arrest warrants for Israeli government officials: Speculation regarding potential International Criminal Court (ICC) actions against top Israeli officials has sparked tensions among Israel, the U.S., and other involved parties. There are suggestions that the U.S. would intervene forcefully to block any ICC move against Israeli leaders. Questions have arisen about the court's jurisdiction, particularly since Israel is not a member, while Palestine is, whilst UN lawyers have pointed out that alleged criminal activity on a member state's soil falls under the court's jurisdiction. Meanwhile, the U.S. has threatened to halt arms sales to Israel if it launches an assault on Rafah. Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have openly expressed their intention to invade Rafah, while Washington urges restraint.

2️⃣🇳🇪🇲🇱🇧🇫 Power shifts in the Sahel: Russian military personnel have entered a Niger air base hosting U.S. troops, according to a senior U.S. defense official speaking to Reuters. This follows formerly U.S.-aligned Niger's decision to expel U.S. forces. The junta has ordered the withdrawal of nearly 1,000 U.S. troops, previously crucial allies in Washington's fight against insurgents. Recent coups in African nations have prompted the relocation of troops, with U.S. forces leaving Chad and French forces ousted from Mali and Burkina Faso. This all comes in advance of elections in Chad, another Sahelian state.

3️⃣🇬🇧🇷🇼 UK begins deportation of asylum seekers: Last month, Parliament approved the controversial Safety of Rwanda Bill, allowing for the deportation of asylum seekers arriving illegally in Britain to Rwanda, despite a prior UK Supreme Court ruling against the policy. This week, British authorities launched nationwide operations to detain migrants in preparation for deportation to Rwanda as part of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s immigration agenda. Interior Minister James Cleverly stated that enforcement teams are swiftly detaining those without legal status to facilitate deportation flights.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇪🇺🇱🇧 The European Union unveils a 1 billion euro aid package for Lebanon: Grappling with the fallout of the 2019 liquidity crisis, tensions along its southern border between Hizbollah and Israel, and a leadership vacuum since 2022, Lebanon is in a vulnerable state. However, the funds are designated to strengthen border control, curbing the flow of asylum seekers and migrants from Lebanon to Cyprus and Italy across the Mediterranean Sea. This initiative mirrors previous EU aid packages for Egypt, Tunisia, and Mauritania, which aimed to enhance border security.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇵🇦 Panama to elect a new president, amid social unrest: Panama's supreme court has rejected a bid to disqualify José Raúl Mulino, the leading presidential candidate, just days before Sunday's election. While this ruling eases uncertainty, Panama faces widespread social unrest, economic slowdown, a canal drought, and a major copper mine closure. Mulino maintains a strong lead with 25-30% voter support, ahead of lawyer Ricardo Lombana and former president Martín Torrijos.

2️⃣🇪🇬🇮🇱🇵🇸 Gaza ceasefire talks unfold in Egypt: A Hamas delegation is in Cairo for negotiations on a ceasefire and captive release, with some progress reported. However, Israel's insistence on a ground invasion of Gaza's Rafah remains a sticking point. The delegation, meeting mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S., is discussing a proposal to halt Israel's Gaza offensive for 40 days in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Negotiations are at a critical stage, with a Qatari team collaborating with Egypt to finalize details.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ “It was such a relief to think about world affairs! Like coming out of solitary confinement.” ― Elizabeth Harrower

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

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