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📰 Sanctions as silent killers

📰 Sanctions as silent killers

and Cambodia and Thailand agree to ceasefire

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 03, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Weekly,

This week, Myanmar’s junta declared the end of the state of emergency to prepare for the heavily boycotted December election. In northern Burkina Faso, a JNIM assault on a military base has left 50 soldiers dead. Meanwhile, Israel has admitted to hundreds of ceasefire violations along the Lebanese border.

Our lead story examines the global human cost of sanctions, spotlighting new research published in The Lancet revealing their devastating toll on civilian life.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Worst case scenario of famine now unfolding in Gaza says UN: Gaza has now entered full famine, according to the World Food Programme (WFP), with food security and nutrition indicators surpassing all famine thresholds. More than 500,000 people are enduring famine conditions, while the rest of the population faces emergency hunger. Acute malnutrition among children under five has quadrupled in Gaza City, and health services have largely collapsed, leaving infants without life-saving treatment. WFP and other UN agencies warn that starvation is being driven by Israel’s intentional blocked humanitarian access, destroyed local food systems, and the breakdown of essential services. They are calling for an immediate ceasefire, unrestricted aid flows, and urgent efforts to restore local food production to avert further mass deaths and the deepening of a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

2️⃣ 🇲🇾 🇰🇭 🇹🇭 Cambodia and Thailand agree to ceasefire: Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an unconditional ceasefire beginning midnight Monday. Artillery fire subsided just before the truce, bringing hope to evacuees displaced by the most intense fighting since 2008–2011. Nearly 300,000 people have been uprooted, with at least 38 killed. Peace talks, hosted in Malaysia with U.S. and Chinese involvement, led to a joint commitment to de-escalate and resolve lingering territorial tensions. Both sides seek favourable trade deals with the U.S., amid pressure from President Trump’s tariff threats. Military officials are set to meet Tuesday, with broader diplomatic talks planned for August. Despite mutual accusations of ceasefire violations, the truce marks a critical step toward stability, welcomed by the UN and ASEAN.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Trump issues new ceasefire deadline as Russian strikes kill 25 in Ukraine: Russia launched its deadliest overnight assault in months on Tuesday, killing at least 25 people, in strikes across Ukraine. The attack coincided with U.S. President Donald Trump cutting his previous 50‑day deadline for Russian progress toward ending the war to “10 or 12 days,” warning of new tariffs if Moscow fails to act. Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the bombardment, calling for “truly painful” sanctions to force Russia to stop the killings. A prison in Bilenke suffered a direct hit, leaving dozens wounded, while a hospital strike killed a young mother‑to‑be. The UN said targeting prisoners could constitute a serious breach of international law, as Ukraine hopes Trump’s sharper tone will be matched by concrete measures.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇧🇷 U.S. sanctions Brazilian judges and raises tariffs to 50% amid Bolsonaro trial: The United States has imposed sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and raised tariffs on Brazilian imports by 50%, citing what Trump calls a politically driven “witch hunt” against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Moraes, who is overseeing Bolsonaro’s coup-plotting case, was sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Act for alleged censorship, arbitrary detentions, and politicised prosecutions. President Donald Trump linked the tariffs to the case, while U.S. authorities ordered the freezing of any assets Moraes holds in the country. Brazil’s government condemned the move as foreign interference, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva calling it “arbitrary” and a violation of national sovereignty. Washington had earlier imposed visa restrictions on Moraes and other court officials, escalating tensions with Latin America’s largest economy. Critics have expressed concern over the foreign attack on Brazilian democracy and legal due process.

5️⃣ 🇧🇫 50 soldiers in killed in northern Burkina Faso base after latest JNIM attack: Around 50 soldiers were killed in northern Burkina Faso when suspected fighters from Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) stormed a military base in Dargo, Boulsa province. Local sources told the Associated Press that roughly 100 militants overran the site, killing troops before looting and burning the base. The military government has not publicly commented on the assault. JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate, has escalated attacks across Burkina Faso, which now faces widespread militant control beyond the capital. The surge in violence has fueled political instability, prompting two recent coups, but military leader Ibrahim Traoré has struggled to contain the insurgency despite reshuffling security and political alliances.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇺🇳 SANCTIONS AS SILENT KILLERS: NEW STUDY REVEALS GLOBAL HUMAN COST

Are sanctions as lethal as armed conflict? A landmark study published in The Lancet suggests that this might be the case. It revealed that unilateral economic sanctions—most of them imposed by the United States—cause an estimated 564,000 deaths globally each year, roughly half of them children. While sanctions are often presented as a non-violent alternative to war, the research demonstrates that they inflict devastation comparable to armed conflict, particularly by collapsing health systems, triggering medicine shortages, and worsening childhood mortality.

The study’s analysis of 152 countries highlights that children under five are the most common victims, as preventable diseases become lethal when health infrastructure collapses. Economic contraction caused by sanctions has a cascading effect: import shortages cripple production, electricity reliability falters, hospitals lose capacity, and widespread unemployment undermines access to care.

Venezuela as a Case Study

Venezuela exemplifies the catastrophic consequences of sanctions. Following U.S. measures imposed from 2015, the country endured a 71% GDP collapse—the steepest economic contraction in modern history outside of active war, almost tripling the severity of the Great Depression. Hyperinflation persisted for years as sanctions cut Venezuela off from international finance, preventing the government from stabilising the economy despite vast oil reserves. According to the study, this financial isolation directly fueled spikes in mortality, especially among children dependent on otherwise treatable medical care.

A Global Pattern of Economic Violence

While Venezuela accounts for a significant share of excess deaths, the pattern extends worldwide. Around 25% of states—nearly 50 countries—face some form of sanctions, including Iran, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, and historically Haiti. Sanctions not only strangle national economies but also deter global institutions like the World Bank from engagement, even when sanctions are formally “targeted.” This amplifies humanitarian harm, creating a cycle of isolation and economic collapse that hits civilian populations hardest.

Why U.S. Sanctions Are the Deadliest

The study distinguishes between U.S., EU, and UN sanctions. UN measures, passed through the Security Council, often include humanitarian carve-outs and clear conditions for removal. By contrast, U.S. unilateral sanctions are harsher, more politicised, and often indefinite, excluding countries from the global financial system dominated by the dollar. This structural leverage makes U.S. sanctions disproportionately lethal, weaponising economic isolation to achieve geopolitical aims with minimal domestic accountability.

A Hidden Form of Warfare

Researchers and policy experts warn that the rising use of sanctions reflects their political convenience: they allow states, especially the U.S., to exert coercive power without the visibility or domestic costs of military intervention. Yet, as this study underscores, sanctions are not a “soft” alternative to war—they are a form of economic warfare with a staggering, largely invisible civilian death toll.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇹 🇲🇦 🇪🇭 🇺🇳 Portugal endorses Morocco’s Western Sahara autonomy plan, undermining UN-backed Sahrawi self‑determination: Portugal has endorsed Morocco’s autonomy proposal for Western Sahara, describing it as a “serious and credible” solution to the decades‑long dispute. Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel’s statement aligns Lisbon with a growing bloc of Western states supporting Moroccan sovereignty, despite warnings from international legal experts that such moves erode the Sahrawi people’s inalienable right to self‑determination and risk normalising Morocco’s occupation. The conflict dates to the 1970s, when Spain withdrew and the Algeria‑backed Polisario Front began its struggle for independence. Morocco’s plan offers limited self‑rule under its authority, which the Polisario rejects. UN‑sponsored talks have stalled for years, and Portugal’s endorsement gives Rabat new diplomatic momentum even as a genuine political settlement remains elusive.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇲🇽 🇨🇦 Trump imposes new round of global tariffs as trade partners brace for economic fallout: U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a sweeping executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs of 10–41% on imports from 68 nations and the EU, targeting both allies and adversaries. The measures, aimed at bolstering U.S. exporters, will take effect in seven days, replacing Friday’s initial deadline and giving select countries—like Mexico—a brief window for negotiations. Canada now faces a 35% tariff, while Syria, Laos, and Myanmar are hit with punitive rates of 40% or more. Trump cited foreign “looting” of U.S. trade and linked Canada’s penalty to fentanyl concerns and Ottawa’s recognition of Palestine. Critics warn the tariffs could stoke inflation and disrupt supply chains, while legal challenges to Trump’s broad use of emergency economic powers are already underway. Despite global unease, Trump insists the strategy is “going very well, very smooth.”

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇵🇸 Starmer floats conditional Palestinian recognition amid Gaza genocide: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is preparing to unveil a plan for recognising a Palestinian state, under mounting pressure from Labour MPs and cabinet ministers over Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza. The proposal, expected after an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday, would condition recognition on a Gaza ceasefire and the release of Israeli captives. Rather than affirming a basic right, Starmer’s plan effectively makes Palestinian statehood conditional on concessions in the midst of Israel’s assault. In doing so, it treats Palestinian self‑determination as a bargaining chip, leveraged with those carrying out the very atrocities it seeks to end. The UK’s stance will be showcased at a UN conference on Palestinian statehood co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, where Foreign Secretary David Lammy will present London’s position. Critics argue that Starmer’s approach risks using Palestinian statehood as leverage with the very actors prosecuting the genocide in Gaza.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇳 Myanmar junta ends state of emergency to prepare for heavily boycotted December election: Myanmar’s military has lifted its state of emergency to pave the way for elections planned for December, despite a nationwide civil war and a boycott by opposition groups. The junta, led by Min Aung Hlaing since the 2021 coup against Aung San Suu Kyi, claims the vote will restore “multiparty democracy,” though UN experts have dismissed it as a bid to legitimise military rule. Political parties are registering and electronic voting preparations are underway, yet vast areas remain beyond government control, and a 2023 census missed 19 million people due to security constraints. New laws threaten protesters with up to 10 years in prison, and analysts warn the poll could trigger intensified rebel offensives even as the junta offers cash incentives for fighters to surrender.

5️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇦🇪 Brussels and Abu Dhabi accelerate trade talks to bypass stalled EU-GCC agreement: The European Union and United Arab Emirates have launched formal negotiations for a bilateral free trade agreement, aiming to cut tariffs and boost investment, digital commerce, and green tech cooperation. With EU-UAE trade reaching €161.7 billion in 2023, both sides see this deal as a strategic pivot. For the UAE, it enhances global influence and supports its economic diversification agenda. For Brussels, the deal offers a faster route than the long-stalled EU-GCC framework. Analysts warn, however, that bilateralism may further undermine collective Gulf bargaining power and fragment regional cohesion. While some see the agreement as a potential catalyst for reviving broader EU-GCC talks, others argue it reflects the UAE’s preference for asserting strategic autonomy over multilateral coordination. Either way, momentum now lies with Brussels and Abu Dhabi.