Hello,

Ukraine has struck a major Russian oil terminal near the Finnish border, igniting fires across multiple fuel tanks, while stray Ukrainian drones entered NATO airspace over Estonia and Latvia after being knocked off course by Russian electronic warfare.

Meanwhile, the UK will reportedly lead a 30-nation coalition to clear Iranian mines from the Strait of Hormuz, Trump floated joint US-Iranian control of the waterway, and a former MI6 chief said Iran currently holds the upper hand in the conflict.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine strikes Russian oil port near Finnish border: Ukrainian forces attacked the oil terminal in Primorsk — a Gulf of Finland port roughly 50km from Finland — igniting a fire that satellite imagery showed engulfing multiple fuel tanks, with Ukraine also claiming a simultaneous strike on a refinery in Ufa. Russia said its air defences downed more than 70 drones over the Leningrad region; Ukraine said Primorsk processes around 60 million tonnes of oil annually.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israeli settlers attack West Bank villages after teen's death: More than 20 overnight attacks on Palestinian villages were reported after an 18-year-old settler was killed, allegedly struck by a Palestinian-driven vehicle, with homes, vehicles and fields set ablaze following calls for a "revenge campaign" on settler WhatsApp groups. Israeli civil rights group Yesh Din described the violence as "a night of pogroms," while the UN reported six Palestinians killed by settlers since 1 March.

3️⃣ 🇨🇺🇺🇸 Cuba suffers third nationwide blackout in March amid fuel crisis: A generating unit failure at the Nuevitas thermoelectric plant triggered a cascading grid collapse across the island, the third total blackout this month, compounding daily outages of up to 12 hours driven by fuel shortages. President Díaz-Canel said Cuba has received no oil from foreign suppliers in three months — producing only 40% of its fuel needs — after Trump warned of tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, with Venezuela's political collapse also cutting off a key petroleum source.

4️⃣ 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇺🇦 Stray Ukrainian drones strike Estonian and Latvian territory: Two drones entered NATO member airspace — one damaging a power plant chimney in Auvere, Estonia, and another exploding in Latvia's Kraslava region — with both countries confirming the errant drones were Ukrainian, likely knocked off course by Russian electronic warfare. No injuries or major damage were reported, though Estonian security officials warned such incidents were likely to recur while Latvia's defence minister cut short a visit to Ukraine in response.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺🇬🇧 Russia warns Britain over planned seizure of shadow fleet vessels: Moscow condemned UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's authorisation for military personnel to detain Russian-linked commercial ships in British waters, calling it a "deeply hostile step". Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned it would deploy "all political, legal, and other instruments," including asymmetric measures, to protect its interests.

Major Story

🇮🇷 Iran War

Military 

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 Pentagon signs missile production surge agreements with three firms: The Defense Department struck framework agreements with Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems and Honeywell Aerospace to accelerate missile output, with both Lockheed's Precision Strike Missile — used for the first time in combat against Iranian targets — and the THAAD interceptor set to quadruple in production. 

2️⃣ 🇮🇷 Iran denies Diego Garcia missile strike, calls it Israeli false flag: Tehran dismissed allegations it fired missiles at the joint US-UK Indian Ocean base, with NATO's chief declining to confirm Israel's claim they were Iranian ICBMs. 

3️⃣ 🇮🇱🇱🇧 Smotrich calls for Israel to annex southern Lebanon up to Litani River: Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich explicitly called for redrawing Israel's northern border to the Litani River as Israeli forces bombed bridges and destroyed homes in southern Lebanon, making him the most senior Israeli official to publicly advocate seizing Lebanese territory. Netanyahu's office did not respond to comment requests. Defence Minister Katz had earlier hinted at territorial seizure, while Smotrich also called for annexing Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza.

Diplomacy 

1️⃣ 🇾🇪🇮🇱 Houthis enter Iran war with missile strike on Israel: Iranian-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a ballistic missile attack targeting southern Israel on the one-month anniversary of the conflict, marking the first time Israel has faced fire from Yemen since the war began. 

2️⃣ 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump floats joint Hormuz control with Iran: Trump told reporters the strait — through which 20% of global energy supplies pass — could be jointly controlled by himself and Iran's ayatollah, a statement that would amount to a major concession recognising Iranian influence. Iran has held de facto control since the US-Israeli war began on 28 February, attacking at least 17 vessels while continuing to export up to 1.5 million barrels of oil daily through the waterway.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷🇬🇧 Former MI6 chief says Iran has upper hand in war with US and Israel: Sir Alex Younger, who led Britain's Secret Intelligence Service from 2014 to 2020, said the US had "lost the initiative to Iran" roughly two weeks prior, attributing Iran's resilience to early decisions to disperse military capability and delegate weapons authority. Younger said Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz had given it the "whip hand," while framing the conflict as asymmetric — Iran fighting a war of existence against a US war of choice.

Energy/Oil 

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 UK to lead 30-nation coalition to sweep Iranian mines from Hormuz: London is organising a summit of roughly 30 countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, planning to deploy minesweepers and Type 45 destroyers after Iran left at least a dozen Maham-series limpet mines in the waterway. Indian, Pakistani and Chinese vessels have transited without incident, reportedly by broadcasting a signal identifying them as cleared for passage. Iran has said the strait will remain closed until the US and Israel end the war and pay reparations.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 Judge blocks Pentagon's Anthropic supply chain designation: A federal judge in California indefinitely blocked the Pentagon's labelling of Anthropic as a supply chain risk — a designation previously reserved for foreign adversary-linked companies — ruling it violated the AI firm's First Amendment and due process rights.

2️⃣ 🇰🇵🇧🇾 Kim and Lukashenko sign friendship treaty in Pyongyang: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un hosted Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a two-day visit, during which both sides signed a friendship treaty and declared bilateral relations had entered a "fundamentally new stage," with Kim voicing opposition to Western pressure on Belarus. The meeting comes despite a recent thaw in Belarus-US relations following Lukashenko's meeting with a Trump envoy and the release of 250 prisoners — including a Nobel Peace Prize winner — in exchange for further sanctions relief.

3️⃣ 🇭🇺🇪🇺 Orbán rallies European right at CPAC Hungary ahead of election: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán used the fifth CPAC Hungary summit to pledge that a Fidesz election victory next month would serve as a springboard to challenge progressive forces in Brussels. The summit was attended by right-wing leaders including Germany's Alice Weidel, Austria's Herbert Kickl and Argentina's Javier Milei. Trump did not attend despite Fidesz expectations but sent a video endorsement; JD Vance also stayed away.

Daily Updates?

Want daily updates on the world of geopolitics as well as weekly?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Daily here ⤵️