Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Weekly.

Dramatic shifts in Paris and Tokyo as France’s government collapses and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba steps down. Meanwhile, in Nepal, an interim Prime Minister has been appointed after a week of unrest.

Our lead story today explores China and India’s symbolic thaw.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇮🇱 Israel strikes Qatar with US approval, shattering Gulf faith in American security guarantees: Israel’s strike on Doha, reportedly backed by Washington, has rattled the Gulf’s trust in the US as its long-standing security guarantor. The attack, aimed at Hamas officials but killing six others including a Qatari security officer, took place just 30km from America’s largest regional base. US radar systems in Doha reportedly went silent during the raid, raising questions over complicity. Qatar, a key mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks and major US ally, denounced the strike as “state terrorism.” Analysts warn the move could push Gulf states closer to China and Iran, undermining US influence built on military protection and economic ties. Even traditionally pro-Israel partners like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have signalled frustration, highlighting the risk of Israel’s ambitions destabilising the wider region.

2️⃣ 🇧🇷 Brazil supreme court convicts Bolsonaro for coup attempt: Brazil’s supreme court has convicted Jair Bolsonaro, making him the first former president in the country’s history found guilty of attempting a coup. Three of five judges ruled that Bolsonaro led a “criminal organisation” to overturn the 2022 election won by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The plot allegedly included plans to assassinate Lula, his vice-president, and Justice Alexandre de Moraes, abandoned only after military chiefs refused to back Bolsonaro. The conviction also extends to seven top officials, including senior officers—unprecedented since Brazil’s military dictatorship. Bolsonaro, under house arrest since August, faces a potential decades-long sentence but may serve it at home due to health issues. He remains barred from elections, though conservatives are pushing an amnesty bill likely to face constitutional challenge.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇵🇱 Russian drones breach Polish airspace, Warsaw invokes NATO Article 4: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Poland is “closer to war than at any time since the second world war” after Russian drones repeatedly violated its airspace, including 19 incursions overnight, some from Belarus. NATO forces, including Dutch F-35s, joined Poland in downing at least three drones, prompting Warsaw to invoke NATO’s Article 4 for emergency consultations. Airports in Warsaw and Rzeszów were shut as air defences scrambled. Warsaw said allies have offered to bolster its air security, with the UK considering deploying Typhoon jets. While Moscow denied deliberate targeting, officials in Warsaw dismissed claims of accident. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged NATO to respond decisively, warning that Russia is “testing limits” of escalation.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇬 Ethiopia inaugurates Grand Renaissance Dam as Egypt warns of water security threat: Ethiopia has inaugurated the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa’s largest hydropower project, hailed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as the end of his nation’s “geopolitical insignificance.” With a planned capacity of 6,000 megawatts, the dam could double Ethiopia’s electricity output and generate $1bn annually, though much of the current surplus powers cryptocurrency mining while millions remain off-grid. For Ethiopia, GERD represents sovereignty and economic transformation; for Egypt, it is an existential danger. Dependent on the Nile for 97% of its water, Cairo fears droughts could expose its vulnerability, while Sudan eyes potential irrigation gains. Negotiations collapsed in 2023, and Egypt is reportedly backing Ethiopian rebels and strengthening ties with Eritrea. The dam’s opening, rather than resolving disputes, risks fuelling new conflict in the Horn of Africa.

5️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇲🇲 🇰🇷 Global democracy and press freedom suffer sharpest decline in half a century: Press freedom has experienced its steepest drop in 50 years, reflecting a wider democratic downturn, according to the International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Report 2025. The study found democracy declined in 94 countries over the past five years, with press freedoms worsening in a quarter of them. Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Myanmar, and South Korea saw the sharpest falls, the latter under former president Yoon Suk Yeol’s crackdown on critical media. The report also highlighted press restrictions in Palestine, where nearly 200 journalists have been killed since October 2023, and Israel has blocked foreign media from Gaza. While Chile, Botswana, and South Africa saw gains, the US has scaled back democracy promotion abroad, with its institutions increasingly cited as examples of executive overreach rather than democratic resilience.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇮🇳 CHINA AND INDIA’S SYMBOLIC THAW

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s late August visit to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit marked his first trip to China in seven years. Meeting President Xi Jinping on the sidelines, Modi struck a notably warmer tone than in recent years, signalling tentative re-engagement after the deadly 2020 Himalayan border clash. Both leaders stressed the need to prevent border disputes from defining ties and framed cooperation as preferable to rivalry.

The U.S. Factor

The timing magnified the meeting’s importance. Days earlier, President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports, citing New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil and fallout from a brief conflict with Pakistan. The move shook a relationship Washington once described as a “natural alliance.” Footage of Modi in animated conversation with Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin was widely interpreted as a message to Washington that India will not yield to U.S. pressure.

Re-engagement with Beijing

The summit followed a cautious reset launched in 2024, beginning with a brief Modi-Xi encounter at the BRICS summit in Russia. Subsequent diplomacy produced agreements on troop disengagement along the disputed frontier, resumption of border trade, and greater economic cooperation. These steps have eased tensions, though more than 50,000 soldiers remain stationed in rear areas on both sides of the Line of Actual Control.

For Modi, rapprochement with Beijing is driven by pragmatism. China remains India’s second-largest trading partner, and easing tensions helps insulate New Delhi from Trump’s tariffs. The SCO also offers a platform to reinforce India’s role in shaping a multipolar order, while curbing China’s ability to dominate Asian institutions unchecked. Yet rivalry with Beijing remains inevitable, given competing regional ambitions and the unresolved border.

Moscow’s Place

Equally striking was Modi’s public warmth toward Putin. The India-Russia partnership, rooted in decades of defence and energy cooperation, has endured despite Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Modi reaffirmed the relationship, casting it as central to “peace and stability,” while resisting U.S. pressure to halt Russian oil imports.

India is unlikely to pivot fully toward Beijing, but Trump’s tariffs have accelerated Modi’s search for diplomatic flexibility. The SCO meeting projected resilience abroad and reassured domestic audiences of Modi’s stature, even as India balances fraught ties with both Washington and Beijing.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇴 Bogota struggles to contain Colombia’s slide back to conflict: Colombia’s fragile peace is collapsing less than a decade after the 2016 deal ended half a century of war. In regions like Guaviare, once freed from FARC control, residents now live under the rule of new armed groups that enforce curfews, issue ID cards, and mete out punishment. Homicides and kidnappings are again rising, while violence has intensified ahead of the 2026 elections, including the assassination of presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay. President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” strategy, aimed at negotiating with all armed groups, has stalled as criminal networks multiply, driven less by ideology than by control of lucrative illicit economies. With U.S. aid under review and state presence weak in rural areas, Colombia risks sliding back into prolonged instability unless dialogue and development accompany security efforts.

2️⃣ 🇳🇵Nepal picks first ever female prime minister to lead interim government after deadly unrest: Nepal will hold elections on 5 March after President Ramchandra Paudel dissolved parliament and installed an interim government led by Sushila Karki, the country’s first female prime minister and a former chief justice known for her anti-corruption work. Karki’s appointment follows Nepal’s most intense protests in years, driven by Gen Z demonstrators angered by corruption, nepotism, and economic hardship. The unrest left 51 dead, thousands injured, and parliament and politicians’ homes torched. Former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli was forced to resign. Authorities have now lifted curfews in Kathmandu as the country slowly returns to normal. India welcomed Karki’s appointment, while China has yet to comment, having earlier called for calm and protection of civilians.

3️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇸🇩 Kiir’s succession gamble plunges South Sudan into crisis: South Sudan faces renewed instability as President Salva Kiir dismantles the 2018 peace accord and elevates businessman-turned-politician Benjamin Bol Mel, fuelling speculation he could be groomed as successor. Kiir’s moves—including sidelining First Vice-President Riek Machar, who is now under house arrest—have fractured the ruling elite and reignited violence in Equatoria and Upper Nile. The country’s dire economic collapse, worsened by lost oil revenues from Sudan’s war, compounds the risk of fresh conflict. Bol Mel’s meteoric rise has unsettled powerful factions, raising fears of another civil war if Kiir exits without broad consensus. Regional and international actors, including the AU and IGAD, must urgently push for restraint, dialogue, and civilian protection. Without coordinated diplomacy, South Sudan’s fragile political order could unravel once more.

4️⃣ 🇫🇷 Newly appointed French PM Sébastien Lecornu faces protests as ‘Block Everything’ campaign begins: Newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu takes office under immediate pressure, as France braces for nationwide blockades and demonstrations organised under the online banner “Block Everything.” Authorities plan an “exceptional” deployment of 80,000 security personnel to clear highways, rail hubs, refineries, and airports, amid fears of violent disruptions. The protest wave was triggered by outgoing premier François Bayrou’s proposed €43.8 billion budget cuts, which cost him his government on Monday. Lecornu, a close Macron ally and former defence minister who has prioritised France’s military rearmament, now faces a volatile parliament and a restless street. Polls show 46% of French citizens back the shutdown, though analysts say it differs from the Yellow Vests, with calls ranging from Macron’s resignation to dismantling political parties. Wider union-led strikes are planned next week.

5️⃣ 🇯🇵 Motegi launches leadership bid as Japan’s LDP reels from Ishiba resignation: Former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi became the first lawmaker to declare his candidacy to replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned after election losses cost the ruling coalition its parliamentary majority. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will hold an emergency leadership vote on 4 October, with markets closely watching contenders’ economic positions. Investors expect frontrunners Sanae Takaichi, a fiscal dove who could become Japan’s first female leader, and Shinjiro Koizumi, a popular reformist, to dominate the race. Takaichi’s opposition to interest rate hikes and calls for higher spending have already tempered expectations of near-term monetary tightening. Her hawkish stance on China, including visits to Yasukuni Shrine and Taiwan, could also strain regional relations as Japan faces renewed political and economic uncertainty.

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Tips & Suggestions

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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