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📰 China and India sign rapprochement

📰 China and India sign rapprochement

and Sudan moves closer to partition

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
September 07, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Weekly.

This week, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ousts Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over an ethics ruling, Ireland warns the UK against abandoning the European Convention on Human Rights, and the United States violates UN agreements by revoking visas for Palestinian Authority officials.

In our lead story: Europe’s snapback gamble with Iran risks war.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇮🇳 Xi unveils alternative financial order, signs rapprochement with India: China and Russia used the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin to present their vision of an alternative global order, framing it against US dominance. President Xi Jinping pledged new financial backing for SCO members, including $280m in grants, $1.4bn in loans, and the creation of a development bank, while unveiling a “Global Governance Initiative” promoting multilateralism and sovereign equality. Russia’s Vladimir Putin hailed the bloc as the foundation of a new Eurasian security system. The SCO, long seen as symbolic, is expanding influence as Global South states demand greater voice in world affairs. Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signalled rapprochement just days after Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. Leaders will remain in China for a military parade alongside North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 President Prabowo orders crackdown as Indonesia reels from deadly protests over lawmakers’ perks: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced that political parties had agreed to cut lawmakers’ allowances in an effort to calm nationwide protests that have left at least five people dead. Demonstrations, sparked by anger over excessive parliamentary benefits, escalated into riots last week, with state buildings torched and the home of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati looted. Prabowo, flanked by party leaders at the Presidential Palace, vowed “firm action” by police and military against rioters, some of whom he accused of treason and terrorism. Student groups dismissed the concessions as insufficient, citing oligarchic politics and inequality as root causes, and vowed further demonstrations. Amnesty International criticised the president’s rhetoric as “excessive.” Investor confidence has slumped, with markets hit by heavy selloffs amid ongoing unrest.

3️⃣ 🇱🇰 Dissanayake faces IMF constraints as Sri Lanka struggles with debt crisis: Sri Lanka’s recovery from its 2022 financial collapse has been tethered to IMF austerity, leaving civil society to bear the cost. The bailout conditions—privatisations, subsidy cuts, frozen public hiring, and higher taxes—have deepened hardship, with food insecurity now affecting millions. Newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has reinstated agricultural and fishing subsidies, yet inflation, high fuel costs, and limited health spending persist. Servicing debt consumes five times more than public health, underscoring the imbalance. Civil society warns that the IMF’s 17th program prioritises creditors over people, mirroring a wider Global South debt crisis where half the world spends more on interest than on education or health. Grassroots movements gathering in Sri Lanka this year demand a just recovery centred on sovereignty, food security, and social investment.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇧🇾 European states fortify borders with Russia and Belarus amid security fears: Nearly eight decades after Churchill warned of an “iron curtain” dividing Europe, it is now Western states building the barriers. Finland, sharing an 832-mile frontier with Russia, is constructing new fences covering 15% of its border by 2026, backed by a $400m budget. The Baltic states and Poland are accelerating a joint “East Shield” project—434 miles of walls, bunkers, antitank ditches and minefields—costing more than £2bn. Latvia alone will spend $350m, while Lithuania plans 30 miles of fortified defences and reclamation ditches. In 2024, six nations, including Norway, agreed to build a 1,850-mile “drone wall” using radars and electronic warfare to counter incursions. Leaders say the aim is deterrence and control, fearing Moscow could redirect its forces once the Ukraine war quiets.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 With its rival government in Nyala, RSF pushes Sudan closer to partition: Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have declared a new government in Nyala, South Darfur, signalling a deeper slide toward partition after nearly two years of civil war. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, presided over the swearing-in of a 15-member Presidential Council, naming himself president and appointing rebel leader Abdelaziz al-Hilu as deputy. Former transitional government member Mohamed Hassan al-Taishi was named prime minister. The move comes after heavy battlefield losses forced the RSF from Khartoum earlier this year, prompting efforts to broaden alliances, particularly with al-Hilu’s SPLM-North. While the RSF claims nationwide legitimacy, the rival Sudanese army retains international backing from the UN and Arab League. Nyala remains under airstrike threat, making the government largely symbolic. Analysts warn Sudan risks a drawn-out stalemate and de facto partition without urgent diplomatic breakthroughs.

Major Story

🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 EUROPE’S SNAPBACK GAMBLE RISKS WAR

Britain, France, and Germany have triggered the “snapback” mechanism, setting in motion the automatic restoration of all United Nations sanctions lifted under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). European leaders frame the move as a bid to salvage nuclear diplomacy with Tehran. In practice, it threatens the opposite. By reviving sanctions largely at Israel’s urging, the E3 have narrowed the space for negotiation and pushed the conflict further toward confrontation.

Four Immediate Consequences

The return of sanctions carries four major implications. First, the UN will demand that Iran end all uranium enrichment—politically impossible in Tehran, where enrichment is seen as both a sovereign right and a national sacrifice. Second, an arms embargo will be reinstated, potentially curbing Tehran’s access to defensive systems unless Russia and China defy enforcement. Third, Iran’s fragile economy will deteriorate further, inflicting harsher pain on its citizens and amplifying regional instability. Finally, the “snapback” gives Israel political cover to intensify military strikes on Iranian facilities, legitimised by European backing.

Europe’s Justification, Iran’s Suspicion

European leaders argue that coercion is the only way to bring Iran back to the table and secure compliance with International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. Yet Tehran views such demands through the lens of betrayal. Sensitive nuclear data shared with the IAEA, Iranian officials argue, has been exploited by Israeli intelligence to target scientists. Coupled with recent Israeli and US bombings conducted while diplomacy was supposedly ongoing, Iran sees little reason to trust negotiations that offer no reciprocal restraint on its adversaries.

From Preventing War to Risking One

The irony is stark. When the E3 emerged in 2003, their mission was to forestall a US-led war with Iran by offering an alternative to force. Two decades later, Europe’s calculus has changed. Iran’s alignment with Russia in the Ukraine conflict, the collapse of EU–Iran trade, and dependence on the transatlantic alliance have shifted priorities. Sanctioning Tehran now serves two purposes: punishing its partnership with Moscow and signalling loyalty to Washington and Tel Aviv. But this alignment comes at the cost of regional stability.

A Strategic Miscalculation

By triggering snapback, the E3 risks repeating the very mistakes they once sought to prevent. Coercion without a path to compromise on enrichment leaves only one trajectory: escalation. Alternatives exist—linking sanctions relief to security guarantees, embedding nuclear talks within a broader regional framework, and ensuring reciprocity on all sides. Such diplomacy requires patience and political courage. Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi writes, in 2003, Europe resisted American pressure to wage another disastrous Middle Eastern war. In 2025, it risks becoming complicit in creating one.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 US breaches UN agreement with visa revocations of PA officials: The United States has begun revoking visas for senior figures in the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), including President Mahmoud Abbas, ahead of this month’s UN General Assembly. Abbas, who planned to address the assembly in New York, denounced the move as a breach of the UN headquarters agreement, which obliges Washington to admit representatives to the world body. The State Department justified the restrictions by accusing the PA of “lawfare” at international courts and failing to repudiate terrorism, aligning the Trump administration more closely with Israel’s hardline stance. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar praised the decision as “standing by Israel once again.” This comes as several Western and Arab states weigh recognising Palestinian statehood at the UN.

2️⃣ 🇮🇪 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 Irish government warns UK against abandoning European Convention of Human Rights: Ireland’s deputy prime minister Simon Harris has warned that Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement cannot be undermined by efforts in London to abandon the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Speaking at the British Irish Association conference in Oxford, Harris stressed that the ECHR is a “fundamental safeguard” and an “essential pillar” of the 1998 peace accord, which both governments are bound to uphold. He also announced that Dublin and London will appoint an independent panel to recommend steps toward dismantling paramilitary groups that continue to wield influence over one-fifth of Northern Irish communities. Harris said paramilitarism remains “an enduring scourge” more than 25 years after the peace deal, warning that coercion, criminality, and intimidation still blight daily life for many.

3️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Thai Constitutional Court removes Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over ethics violation: Thailand’s Constitutional Court has dismissed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, ruling she violated ethics by placing personal ties with Cambodia’s Hun Sen above national interests. The decision, delivered after a leaked recording of a call in which she referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and offered to “take care of” his requests, triggered her immediate removal. Paetongtarn apologised, calling her words a negotiating tactic, but critics accused her of undermining Thailand during a border dispute that later erupted into deadly clashes. The ruling marks the fourth time a Shinawatra has been ousted by coup or court, deepening instability within Pheu Thai. With both Paetongtarn and her predecessor Srettha Thavisin disqualified, the party faces difficulty rallying support around its remaining nominee, Chaikasem Nitisiri, while a caretaker government holds power.

4️⃣ 🇯🇲 Low turnout mars Jamaican election as Andrew Holness secures third term: Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have secured a third consecutive term after edging out the opposition People’s National Party (PNP) in a closely fought election. Preliminary results showed the JLP winning 34 of 63 seats, against 29 for Mark Golding’s PNP. Holness hailed the victory as proof Jamaicans want to maintain economic gains and crime reductions achieved under his leadership, pledging to “accelerate the development of our country.” His government has been credited with cutting public debt and overseeing the steepest decline in homicides in decades. Despite corruption allegations raised during the campaign, Holness denied wrongdoing and thanked voters for their trust. Turnout was under 40 percent, the lowest in years, raising concerns about democratic engagement.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇺🇳 Israeli drones target UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon in one of most serious incidents since ceasefire: UNIFIL said Israeli drones dropped four grenades near its personnel while they were clearing roadblocks to a UN position close to the border. Though no one was injured, the force described it as “one of the most serious attacks” on its mission since the November ceasefire that ended the 14-month Israel–Hizbollah war. The attack occurred despite UNIFIL informing the Israeli military in advance of its movements. The peacekeepers halted work after grenades landed as close as 20 metres from staff and vehicles. UNIFIL called the strike a grave breach of international law, stressing that Israel bears responsibility for the safety of UN forces. The incident comes just days after the UN Security Council voted to withdraw the mission next year under U.S. and Israeli pressure.