Australia launches probe into $1bn Nauru–China investment deal; Sudanese diplomat denounces UAE support for RSF and urges global pressure; and Libya is accused of holding secret talks with Israel on Gaza resettlement.

In this week’s lead story, consensus forms around “Article 5-like” guarantees for Kyiv—yet, as with the failed 2022 Istanbul framework, the promise risks crumbling under the weight of unresolved red lines.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran rebuilds military and warns of looming war with Israel: Iran is urgently rebuilding its military strength following June’s 12-day conflict with Israel, which left nuclear facilities and defence capabilities badly damaged. Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told Iranian media that Tehran and Israel remain “in a stage of war,” stressing no ceasefire exists. Safavi warned another confrontation may be imminent and possibly decisive. He argued that to deter Israel and the United States, Iran must bolster its power across all fronts—diplomatic, cyber, drone, missile, and media—because “the weak are trampled.” The June clashes saw Israel strike Iranian nuclear sites and commanders, while Iran launched thousands of rockets that caused heavy economic damage in Israel. Safavi said scenario-planning is underway to prepare for the “worst case.”

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 Opposition protests voter roll revision in Bihar as fears of disenfranchisement grow: India’s opposition parties staged a major protest in New Delhi against a sweeping revision of the voter list in Bihar, warning it could disenfranchise millions ahead of November’s state elections. Police blocked the march and briefly detained several lawmakers, including Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. The overhaul affects nearly 80 million voters and demands documents such as birth certificates or passports—records critics say are scarce in Bihar, one of India’s poorest and least literate states. Opposition leaders argue the measure will disproportionately exclude minorities, particularly Muslims, echoing the divisive 2019 citizenship exercise in Assam. The Election Commission insists the update is routine and necessary to prevent fraud, but nearly 30 million voters remain vulnerable to being struck from the rolls.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 Moscow rejects Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine: Russia has reiterated its hard line on postwar security arrangements for Ukraine, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissing any guarantees negotiated without Moscow’s participation. His remarks followed last week’s Trump–Putin summit in Alaska and undercut hopes of progress toward a settlement. Lavrov restated the Kremlin’s maximalist demands: a neutral Ukraine stripped of NATO ambitions, military capacity, and subject to guarantees involving Russia and China — conditions the West has long rejected. He also revived the failed 2022 Istanbul model, where Moscow sought veto power over any defence commitments. While Trump has promised “Article 5-like” protections for Kyiv, without U.S. troop deployments, European leaders remain sceptical of Russian sincerity. Lavrov’s stance underscores how far apart the sides remain on any credible framework for peace.

4️⃣ 🇧🇴 Bolivia faces historic run-off as rightwing rivals end Mas dominance: For the first time in modern history, Bolivia’s presidency will be decided in a run-off, ending nearly two decades of dominance by the leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas). The surprise frontrunner is centre-right senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who surged from 3% in early polls to win 32.1% of the vote, ahead of former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga on 26.9%. Business tycoon Samuel Doria Medina, finishing third with 19.9%, has pledged to back Paz Pereira in the October run-off. Mas’s candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, scraped just above the 3% threshold needed to preserve the party’s legal status, as null ballots spiked to 19% following Evo Morales’s call for protest votes. The decisive second round will play out amid Bolivia’s worst economic crisis in four decades.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 U.S. companies rush into DR Congo to secure minerals following fragile peace deal: On June 27, DR Congo and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered peace accord in Washington, followed by an economic framework linking reconciliation to cross-border trade. Praised as a “historic turning point,” the deal risks repeating past failures. It hinges on Rwanda withdrawing troops and Kinshasa targeting FDLR rebels, yet most are in M23-held zones, making compliance near impossible without political suicide for the Rwanda-backed militia. For Washington, the agreement doubles as a strategy to counter China and lock in access to DRC’s critical minerals. U.S. firms swiftly moved on cobalt, copper, and lithium deals, but major projects face delays, disputes, and insecurity. With M23 excluded from negotiations and fighting ongoing, the accord looks more like a resource stability pact than a genuine peace settlement.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 ARTICLE 5 WITHOUT NATO? THE FRAGILE PROMISE OF SECURITY GUARANTEES FOR UKRAINE

President Trump’s meetings with European and Ukrainian leaders this week seemed to generate a breakthrough: broad agreement on “Article 5-like” security guarantees for Kyiv. Trump suggested that Vladimir Putin had tacitly accepted the principle, drawing praise from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his European counterparts. Yet the idea is hardly new. It recalls the Istanbul peace talks of 2022, when Ukraine sought collective defence commitments from a coalition of guarantors. At the time, Moscow attempted to insert a veto clause that Kyiv flatly rejected.

Russia’s Red Lines

Three years on, the same dilemma remains: how to craft binding guarantees that deter Russia without crossing its red lines. Moscow has consistently opposed any permanent Western troop presence on Ukrainian soil. The Kremlin has shown flexibility on other issues—freezing the lines of control, tolerating Ukraine’s EU aspirations—but it has never shifted on NATO boots in Ukraine. During the latest round of talks, Russia’s Foreign Ministry reiterated its “categorical rejection” of any deployments involving NATO countries.

The Ambiguity of Deployment

Even so, nuances persist. Moscow distinguishes between preemptive deployments after a peace deal and a European military response to a future invasion. Trump has ruled out U.S. forces, leaving Europeans to shoulder the question, if their troops are deployed, will they fight alongside Ukrainians on the front lines, or merely provide logistical and training support? European leaders must clarify not only for Kyiv, but also for their own publics, whether these pledges amount to a readiness to go to war with Russia.

Strategic Ambiguity or Poison Pill?

In practice, “Article 5-like” guarantees may resemble what is already underway: military aid, training, and sanctions relief, with the added possibility of no-fly zones or conditional deployments. Some observers suggest a Taiwan-style model of strategic ambiguity may emerge, leaving the prospect of intervention open without binding commitments. Whether Moscow can tolerate even that depends on the wider bargain of sanctions relief, NATO’s eastern limits, and territorial arrangements.

The Stakes of Failure

Unlike Istanbul in 2022, Ukraine now has willing guarantors. But the window for settlement is narrow. If security guarantees remain undefined, they risk becoming a poison pill that derails fragile progress. For Ukraine, clarity is existential; for Russia, red lines are non-negotiable. Bridging that gulf will determine whether these talks yield peace—or collapse into another missed opportunity.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel offensive on Gaza City stalls ceasefire progress: Hamas accused Israel of showing “blatant disregard” for mediation efforts after the Israeli army announced an operation to seize Gaza City, home to nearly a million residents and displaced people. The group accepted a 60-day ceasefire proposal from Qatar and Egypt earlier this week, which included exchanging half the Israeli captives in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners and halting Israel’s military campaign. Israel has yet to respond. Despite ongoing talks—Israeli minister Ron Dermer met Qatari officials in Paris on Wednesday—airstrikes intensified, killing at least 81 people since dawn, according to Al Jazeera. Hamas also demonstrated its continued capacity for large-scale attacks on Israeli troops, underscoring the gap between diplomatic manoeuvres abroad and the escalating war on the ground.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 🇲🇾 Indonesia and Malaysia clash over Ambalat maritime dispute: The long-running maritime dispute between Indonesia and Malaysia has resurfaced, centred on the oil- and gas-rich Ambalat Block in the Sulawesi Sea. Malaysia’s 1979 boundary map claims the area, but Jakarta rejects it as baseless under UNCLOS. Although the ICJ awarded nearby islands to Malaysia in 2002, it left Ambalat unresolved, fuelling recurring tensions over overlapping drilling concessions by ENI, Unocal and Petronas. Recent friction was triggered when Malaysian officials dismissed the term “Ambalat”, insisting on “Sulawesi Sea”, a move Indonesia sees as symbolic encroachment. President Prabowo has reaffirmed Indonesia’s claim but urged peaceful dialogue, citing deep bilateral ties and ASEAN solidarity. A joint development model, akin to the Malaysia–Thailand Gulf accord, could offer a way forward, turning a flashpoint into an example of regional cooperation.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇩 UN condemns RSF assault on El Fasher and warns of worsening humanitarian crisis: The UN voiced alarm over a major Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attack on El Fasher, the last government stronghold in North Darfur, and the besieged Abu Shouk displacement camp. Monday’s assault killed 40 civilians and injured 19, while forcing hundreds to flee, according to humanitarian agencies. UN officials condemned deliberate attacks on civilians, stressing displacement camps must never be targeted, as exit routes from El Fasher remain blocked and residents face hunger under siege. Acting Humanitarian Coordinator Sheldon Yett urged safe passage and a humanitarian pause to deliver food, water, and medicine. Violence is also escalating in South Kordofan, where 3,000 people fled Kadugli this month amid road closures and shortages. The UN reiterated that all parties are obliged to protect civilians under international law.

4️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇸🇳 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Senegal ends French military presence as Françafrique unravels: In July, France handed over its last two military bases in Senegal, ending a continuous presence that dated back to independence in 1960. The move followed the election of President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who campaigned on sovereignty and rejected the notion of permanent French bases. Senegal thus joins Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and others in breaking from France’s post-colonial orbit, known as Françafrique. Long criticised as a neocolonial web of military, political, and economic entanglements, Françafrique is now giving way to new alignments: Russia’s Wagner Group in the Sahel, and China’s expanding economic and security footprint. While some welcome greater autonomy, the retreat of French forces risks fuelling instability and forces Paris to rethink its global role.

5️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Erik Prince’s security firm set to deploy foreign contractors in Haiti: Hundreds of fighters from the U.S., Europe, and El Salvador are expected to join a Haiti mission led by Erik Prince’s security firm, Vectus Global. The company, active in the country since March, has signed a reported 10-year deal granting it a role in both security operations and tax collection. Prince says success will mean restoring safe passage between Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haïtien, but critics warn private military contractors could further weaken Haiti’s institutions. Rights groups argue outsourcing security undermines local police and the Kenya-led UN mission, while analysts note gangs still dominate key areas despite months of Vectus involvement. With violence escalating—over 1,500 killed since April—many Haitians, desperate for relief, are willing to accept interventions once unthinkable, though doubts remain over long-term outcomes.

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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