Almost every week this year we’ve said it has been a wild week in geopolitics. That seems to be getting a bit old now! Perhaps this is just the “new normal”?

So, what craziness happened this week?

Well, Russia warned of nuclear war, and German Chancellor Olaf Sholz suggested that British and French personnel might be involved in operating or assisting with the targeting of cruise missiles donated to Ukraine, something that landed him in hot water with London 😬

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1️⃣🟦🇪🇺 NATO countries and European allies quickly distanced themselves from French President Emmanuel Macron's suggestion that sending ground troops into Ukraine had not been ruled out, following severe warnings from Russia that such a move would inevitably lead to direct conflict between Russia and NATO member states (more below 😲). German, British, and Spanish officials all explicitly rejected the idea, underscoring their commitment to not deploy combat troops on Ukrainian soil, instead favoring the provision of weaponry and other forms of support. Amidst the controversy, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg clarified that there are no plans for NATO combat troops in Ukraine, emphasizing the alliance's support for Ukraine but drawing a clear line against direct military involvement on the ground.

2️⃣🇩🇪 Germany is probing a significant security breach after an audio leak, purportedly featuring German military officers discussing Ukraine aid specifics, including the use of Taurus missiles, was published in Russia. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has emphasized the gravity of the situation, assuring a swift and thorough investigation into the matter. The leak has sparked a heated debate within Germany over the provision of military support to Ukraine, revealing internal divisions and raising concerns over the potential interception of sensitive military communications.

3️⃣🇺🇸🇮🇱🇵🇸 The U.S. military has initiated airdrops of food over Gaza as part of an emergency humanitarian assistance operation authorized by President Joe Biden, marking a significant response to the crisis following an incident where over 100 Palestinians were killed while attempting to collect goods from an aid convoy. This operation, involving C-130 cargo planes dropping 66 bundles containing approximately 38,000 meals, underscores the dire situation in Gaza and the U.S. effort to provide immediate relief. This aid delivery method, coordinated with the Royal Jordanian Air Force, aims to circumvent the challenges of ground transport in conflict zones, though it is recognized as a supplement rather than a replacement for more substantial aid shipments.

4️⃣🇵🇸🇪🇬 A Hamas delegation has arrived in Cairo for crucial ceasefire talks, with a potential six-week truce on the horizon, despite little public progress from either side. The ceasefire, approved by Israel and awaiting Hamas' agreement, could mark the first extended pause in the five-month conflict, offering a significant exchange of hostages and detainees, and increased aid to Gaza. Amidst this, the situation remains dire, with recent airstrikes and a tragic incident near a food convoy highlighting the urgent need for humanitarian aid and a resolution to the conflict.

5️⃣🔴🌊⛴️ The sinking of the Rubymar in the Red Sea marks the first vessel fully destroyed in the Houthi rebels' campaign, raising concerns of ecological damage due to its cargo of fertilizer and previously leaked fuel. The attack disrupts crucial maritime routes, risking higher global inflation and complications for aid shipments. Despite facing international opposition and continued conflict, the Houthis' actions, including targeting ships over the Israel-Hamas war, underline the ongoing instability in the region and the potential for a significant environmental crisis.

Major Story

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a stark warning about the use of nuclear weapons if Western troops were deployed near Russia's borders. This statement came in response to French President Emmanuel Macron's comments on the potential involvement of European troops in Ukraine, heightening global tensions.

Putin's warning reflects a significant moment in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, marking an escalation in rhetoric. Historically, such threats have been more associated with Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's close ally. Yet, this shift signifies a more direct approach from Putin himself, suggesting serious consequences for any Western military intervention in Ukraine.

Moscow has highlighted its nuclear capabilities, including hypersonic missiles and a substantial stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons, as a deterrent. While some analysts see this as a continuation of Russia's strategy to intimidate the West, others view it as a critical juncture that could influence the dynamics of the conflict and the broader international security landscape.

Experts and former diplomats have varied perspectives on the impact of Putin's statements, with some viewing them as rhetorical tactics rather than indications of imminent action. 

As the situation evolves, the international community remains alert to the implications of Putin's warning, balancing the need for support in Ukraine with the risks of escalating tensions further.

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Other News

1️⃣🇬🇧 PM Rishi Sunak has warned against extremists threatening UK democracy, calling Islamists & far-right "two sides of the same coin." In a No 10 speech, he vowed action but announced no new policies amid Israel-Gaza conflict protests. The British PM promised a robust anti-extremism framework & further support for the “Prevent” program. Sunak's stance follows recent attacks on MPs and the election of firebrand George Galloway to the House of Commons.

2️⃣🇺🇸 A New York Times/Siena College poll has shown former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by 5 percentage points for the 2024 election, marking Trump's largest lead in such polls since 2015. The poll highlights Biden's declining approval, especially among working-class voters of color, and both candidates' unpopularity among the electorate. Despite Trump's lead, the Biden campaign remains optimistic, citing discrepancies between polling and actual voter behavior in recent elections. Critics of the poll's implications emphasize that actual voter turnout and behavior in recent primaries and elections provide a more accurate measure of electoral prospects than polling data.

3️⃣🛢️ Some OPEC+ members, including key players led by Russia, have decided to extend their voluntary oil output cuts from the first quarter into the second quarter of the year. Initially agreed in November, these cuts amount to approximately 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), aimed at stabilizing the market against rising production from non-OPEC countries and economic challenges like high interest rates. The extension, supported by geopolitical tensions and other factors, could further influence oil prices, as seen with Brent futures recently rising. Kuwait and Algeria have already announced their specific reduction commitments through June.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇧🇷🇬🇾🇻🇪 During a visit to Guyana, Brazil's President Lula da Silva expressed a commitment to maintaining South America as a peaceful zone amidst tensions between Guyana and Venezuela over the Essequibo territory. Lula, who met with Guyana's President Mohamed Irfaan Ali, avoided directly addressing the dispute but emphasized the importance of avoiding war and fostering regional integration. The visit, coinciding with the 46th Summit of the Caribbean Community, signals Brazil's opposition to aggression in the Essequibo conflict. Lula is also expected to attend a CELAC meeting, with potential discussions with Venezuelan President Maduro, focusing on Venezuela's upcoming elections and the importance of transparency and inclusion of opposition parties.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🇺🇸 Super Tuesday: Scheduled for March 5, this day is crucial for presidential primaries, highlighting Donald Trump's significant position in the Republican race, with a large number of delegates up for grabs.

2️⃣🇵🇹 Portugal Legislative Elections: Set for March 10, following the dissolution of parliament by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa due to Prime Minister Antonio Costa's resignation amid corruption allegations.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "Even amidst the encroaching shadows of conflict, we must strive for the light of peace." – Henry Kissinger

Before You Go!

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