Hello,

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has struck the US base in Kuwait as American and Israeli forces hit Tehran's oil facilities for the first time, with the Washington Post reporting Russian intelligence is improving Iran's targeting precision.

This while Poland's Prime Minister signalled ambitions for nuclear autonomy, fighting between Afghanistan and Pakistan has intensified, and France announced it will expand its nuclear arsenal and host allied aircraft across eight European nations.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇱 Poland signals future nuclear autonomy ambitions: Prime Minister Tusk said Poland will “strive to prepare” for autonomous nuclear capabilities as its capacities grow, while pursuing temporary deployment of French nuclear aircraft under shared deterrence arrangements. Tusk emphasized European cooperation over U.S. reliance amid Trump administration uncertainty, though Poland remains bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty limiting independent weapons acquisition.

2️⃣ 🇦🇫🇵🇰 Afghanistan-Pakistan fighting intensifies: Cross-border clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan escalated, with Afghanistan claiming it repelled Pakistani airstrikes on Bagram Air Base while both nations accused each other of killing hundreds of troops. Pakistan maintained control of a contested border post and surrounding territory after ground operations on Friday, though Kabul rejected these claims as baseless.

3️⃣ 🇫🇷🇪🇺 France bolsters European nuclear deterrence: President Macron announced France will increase its nuclear warhead arsenal and allow eight European allies—Germany, Britain, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark—to temporarily host French nuclear-capable aircraft. The initiative, termed “advanced deterrence,” aims to strengthen continental security amid concerns about U.S. commitment and rising threats from Russia and China.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 Pentagon designates Anthropic supply chain risk: The U.S. Department of Defense officially classified AI firm Anthropic as a supply chain risk, marking the first such designation for a U.S. company, after the firm refused to grant defense agencies unrestricted access to its tools. Anthropic’s CEO announced plans to challenge the decision in court, citing concerns over mass surveillance and autonomous weapons.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 Hegseth escalates cartel operations across Latin America: War Secretary Pete Hegseth pressured regional governments to intensify military action against drug trafficking organizations, warning the U.S. would act unilaterally if allies fail to engage effectively. The Pentagon has conducted 44 strikes on suspected smugglers in Caribbean and Pacific waters, resulting in at least 150 deaths.

Major Story

🇮🇷 Iran War Latest

Military

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has launched what it describes as the 27th wave of Operation True Promise, targeting Israel and US assets across the Middle East, including a precision missile strike on the US military base at Arifjan in Kuwait.

US and Israeli forces have struck oil storage and refining facilities in Tehran for the first time, while Trump has threatened further escalation.

In an exclusive report, the Washington Post cited unnamed US officials confirming that Russian intelligence is improving Iran's targeting precision against US assets in the region, with analysts noting the damage to US facilities may exceed what has been publicly acknowledged.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned they are prepared to confront any US naval escort mission through the Strait of Hormuz, with a Guards spokesman explicitly referencing the 1987 mining of the US-escorted supertanker Bridgeton as a cautionary precedent for American forces.

Israeli commandos raided the eastern Lebanese town of Nabi Chit in search of evidence related to missing navigator Ron Arad, resulting in 41 deaths and 40 wounded according to Lebanese authorities. 

Kuwait's air defences have intercepted three ballistic missiles, while firefighters are working to extinguish fires at two locations struck by drone attacks.

Diplomacy

President Trump has demanded Iran's unconditional surrender, defined as either a formal capitulation or the complete destruction of its military capacity, while asserting that the Strait of Hormuz has been cleared and that oil prices will fall quickly, and denying any indication of Russian support for Iran.

Pezeshkian issued the conflict's first significant de-escalatory statement, apologising to Gulf neighbours and pledging to halt attacks on them unless strikes on Iran originate from their territory, but the gesture was immediately undermined by continued large-scale Iranian strikes and Trump's announcement that Iran would be hit "very hard." Iran's foreign minister acknowledged that military units had grown "independent and somewhat isolated," acting on pre-issued general instructions rather than current government direction.

Trump dismissed the UK's offer to deploy aircraft carriers to the Middle East, accusing Starmer of seeking to "join wars after we've already won," after the UK initially refused to allow US forces to use British bases for offensive strikes — a position Starmer later partially reversed by permitting defensive operations from RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia.

Russia and China have both called for an immediate end to hostilities, with Putin personally phoning Pezeshkian to reaffirm Moscow's support for diplomacy while Wang Yi echoed that position, adding there is no popular support for regime change in Iran.

Azerbaijan says it foiled an IRGC-organised plot targeting the Israeli embassy in Baku, a synagogue, Jewish community leaders, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline — which carries approximately a third of Israel's oil imports — with at least seven Azerbaijani nationals detained in connection with the operation. Baku simultaneously announced the withdrawal of its diplomatic staff from Iran.

Economy / Oil

Oil prices have surged to a two-year high, with Brent crude closing at $92.69 a barrel on March 6 — its biggest weekly gain since the Covid pandemic — as the Strait of Hormuz closure triggers a cascading production crisis across the Gulf.

Kuwait has cut oil output and refining capacity due to Iranian threats against shipping. Qatar's energy minister has warned that all Gulf exporters are expected to halt production within days if the conflict continues, with JPMorgan estimating regional cuts could exceed 4 million barrels per day by end of next week. Even an immediate ceasefire would require weeks to months to restore normal output, analysts warn, with oil above $100 now considered a realistic scenario carrying significant consequences for global growth. 

The financial fallout is already spreading beyond energy markets — UK gilt yields and eurozone bond yields are on course for their largest weekly rises since the 2022 Truss mini-budget and March 2025 respectively. Asian-Pacific stock markets have suffered their worst week since the pandemic.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇧🇨🇳 UK arrests three over alleged Chinese espionage: Police arrested three political advisers—including the husband of an MP—on suspicion of assisting a foreign intelligence service under Britain’s National Security Act. All three were released on bail pending May hearings, with officials stating no imminent threat exists related to the arrests.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 China sets record-low GDP growth target: China announced a 4.5–5% growth target for 2026, the lowest since 1991, signaling a strategic shift from export-led growth toward “high-quality growth” centered on high-tech industries and structural reform. Premier Li Qiang cited pressures including an aging population, weak property sector, and domestic demand weakness, while a new five-year plan emphasizes consumption and innovation through 2030.

3️⃣ 🇰🇷📉 South Korea’s market swings wildly amid Iran conflict: South Korea’s KOSPI index plummeted a record 12.06 percent on Wednesday before rebounding with a 9.63 percent surge on Thursday, its best day since 2008, as geopolitical tensions and margin liquidations among retail investors triggered extreme volatility. The dramatic swings reflected the market’s sensitivity to Middle East disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent easing of oil price concerns.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸🇮🇳 US grants India temporary Russian oil waiver: The U.S. Treasury issued a 30-day waiver permitting Indian refiners to purchase Russian crude oil stranded at sea, a stopgap measure designed to stabilize global energy markets disrupted by Middle East conflict. The administration emphasized the measure targets only oil already at sea and expects India to eventually increase U.S. oil purchases.

5️⃣ 🇧🇪🇫🇷 Belgium seizes Russian shadow fleet tanker: The Belgian navy intercepted and seized the Ethera, a tanker suspected of evading EU sanctions on Russia by operating under a false Guinean flag with falsified documents in Belgian waters. French naval helicopters assisted in the boarding operation targeting Moscow’s shadow fleet used to circumvent sanctions on funding for its Ukraine invasion.

Daily Updates?

Want daily updates on the world of geopolitics as well as weekly?

Subscribe to our sister publication Geopolitics Daily here ⤵️