Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Weekly.

In Europe, elections in Romania and Portugal yield landmark results, while the UK and EU hold a summit. At the Baghdad Arab League summit, UN secretary general Guterres called for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Our main story looks at how the Indo-Pacific has been reshaped by the U.S.-China strategic rivalry.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Pakistan blames India for deadly bombing in Balochistan: Pakistan has accused India of orchestrating a suicide bombing that killed three children in Balochistan’s Khuzdar district on Wednesday. The attack targeted a school bus en route to an army public school, killing five—including the driver and security guard—and injuring dozens more. While no group has claimed responsibility, Pakistan’s military alleged India had “planned and orchestrated” the attack using proxy militants. India rejected the accusation as “baseless.” Tensions between the two nuclear powers remain high following recent missile exchanges and a fragile 10 May ceasefire. Islamabad has intensified claims of Indian-backed terror in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where attacks by groups like the BLA and TTP have surged. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack as evidence of India’s “hostility.”

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Israel planning strike on Iran, U.S. intelligence tells CNN: Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, Israeli officials are reportedly considering a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, U.S. intelligence staff have reportedly told CNN, fearing that any deal may fall short of eliminating Iran’s enrichment capabilities. While Washington and Tehran have met repeatedly since April, Israeli leaders are allegedly weighing military options. Although Trump has expressed a preference for diplomacy over military action thus far, Israel’s leadership, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, continues to signal keenness to act unilaterally. Analysts warn such a strike could derail talks and trigger wider regional conflict.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia–Ukraine talks resume in Istanbul, but real progress remains distant: Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul for the first official talks in three years, a move reportedly initiated by President Putin and attended by mid-level Russian officials. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy dismissed the delegation as powerless and underscored that he only agreed to talks out of respect for US President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan. While both sides discussed a potential prisoner swap and ceasefire framework, Ukraine viewed Russia’s demands—including a proposed Ukrainian troop withdrawal from its own territory—as unacceptable. Experts and officials agree the talks served more symbolic than substantive purposes, with real negotiations unlikely before autumn, when economic strain or battlefield shifts might change Russia’s calculus. Until then, both sides appear committed to continued conflict rather than compromise.

4️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇱🇹 🇷🇺 Germany deploys troops to Lithuania in first foreign deployment since WWII: Chancellor Friedrich Merz marked Germany’s first permanent overseas military deployment since WWII during a visit to Lithuania, where he inaugurated the 45th Armoured Brigade—part of Berlin’s expanded effort to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. The 4,800-strong combat unit, stationed in Vilnius, is seen as a key deterrent against Russia and a symbol of Germany’s commitment to Baltic allies. Merz stressed that European defence must urgently scale up in light of Moscow’s “aggressive revisionism” and called for greater defence industrial capacity within Europe. Lithuania, bordering Russia and Belarus, praised Germany’s support and pledged to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP. Merz also reaffirmed Germany’s aim to meet that benchmark by 2032. His firm stance echoes and builds on Scholz’s earlier Zeitenwende defence policy shift.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 PKK dissolution poised to transform Turkey’s domestic politics: The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced the end of its four-decade armed campaign on 12 May, marking a major turning point for Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy. With no external mediators involved, the peace process begins with the insurgency’s end—shifting the Kurdish issue into the realm of democratic and civilian politics. Addressing Kurdish grievances will now require a broader redefinition of Turkish citizenship and inclusive governance. Domestically, dismantling the PKK’s threat narrative may lead to reduced securitisation, potentially revitalising democratic space. Internationally, the move could reshape Turkey’s ties with the Kurds across Syria, Iraq, and Iran—transforming geopolitical fault lines into opportunities for cooperation. It may also ease tensions with the U.S. and EU, while reducing Turkey’s reliance on Russia.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 U.S.—CHINA COMPETITION RESHAPES INDO-PACIFIC SECURITY ORDER

The Indo-Pacific is undergoing a seismic shift as the U.S. and China expand their military capabilities and deepen their strategic rivalry. China’s rapid military modernisation, particularly its ability to challenge U.S. assets near its periphery, has raised the stakes. The U.S., under Presidents Trump and Biden, has responded by reinforcing its regional posture, dispersing forces and upgrading alliances. Still, inconsistent U.S. messaging, particularly under Trump’s “America First” approach, has sown doubt among allies, fuelling regional militarisation.

Diverging Norms and Waning Trust

China’s use of coercive tactics in sovereignty disputes, often flouting international law, contrasts sharply with its claims of peaceful rise. Meanwhile, Washington’s own unpredictability—underscored by erratic diplomacy, sweeping tariffs, and international normative double standards—has shaken confidence in U.S. commitments. Allies worry that U.S. rhetoric now prioritises great-power dominance over international norms, a shift that complicates regional security planning.

Pathways to Stability and Risk Management

To avoid an arms race or unintended conflict, the U.S. and China must reinvigorate strategic communication, including military-to-military channels and risk-reduction dialogues. Recent trade talks offer a narrow opening for diplomacy. A future framework might involve greater transparency in nuclear and cyber capabilities and careful delineation of red lines—particularly in the South China Sea and Taiwan—balancing clarity and strategic ambiguity.

Shared Security Requires Inclusive Regional Roles

Long-term stability will also depend on empowering regional actors. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, along with key partners such as Taiwan, will demand greater say in shaping the security architecture. As the U.S. balances deterrence and diplomacy, and China seeks primacy, the Indo-Pacific’s future will hinge not just on major-power rivalry, but on how smaller powers navigate and influence this evolving order.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇪🇺 Pro-EU candidate emerges as surprise winner in Romanian presidential election: In a surprising upset, moderate independent Nicușor Dan was elected Romania’s president, defeating far-right populist George Simion by over eight points despite trailing in the first round. Dan, the mayor of Bucharest and a soft-spoken academic, prevailed with 53.8% of the vote, as 65% of the electorate turned out—the highest since 1996. Simion, known for his nationalist rhetoric and ‘Trumpian’ tactics, initially claimed victory but later conceded. Dan called the result a triumph for unity and democratic change, while acknowledging the deep divisions in Romanian society and urging supporters of his opponent to join in rebuilding trust.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 Tigray’s crisis is political, not military: The fragmented Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) faces deep internal rifts, with the Getachew faction rejecting the legitimacy of the 14th Congress, citing regional exclusion and coercive tactics. Debretsion Gebremichael’s rival camp is accused of orchestrating a militarised power grab, sidelining civilian oversight and obstructing disarmament obligations under the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Once a symbol of resistance, the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) have splintered into rival units lacking constitutional mandate. Reformists like Getachew and Tsadkan promote a legitimate congress, security sector reform, AU-supervised DDR, and diaspora-led reconstruction—but risk deeper fractures through perceived collaboration with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, co-architect of the war on Tigray. The region’s future rests on breaking oligarchic dominance, restoring democratic norms, and forging inclusive, accountable institutions guided by the popular will.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇩🇪 UN peacekeeping faces financial strain and strategic drift amid calls for reform: At last week’s peacekeeping summit in Berlin, delegates from over 130 countries reaffirmed support for UN peacekeeping but struggled to chart a cohesive path forward amid financial pressures and shifting geopolitical realities. While more than half the delegations made new operational pledges, including equipment and training, discussions largely focused on technical upgrades rather than aligning peacekeeping with broader political goals. Mounting budget shortfalls—exacerbated by delayed U.S. and Chinese payments—threaten mission sustainability, with Germany warning allies they cannot cover lost funds alone. To ensure peacekeeping remains effective, member states must pair military support with diplomatic investment in conflict resolution and mediation capacity, especially as the UN pivots away from sprawling missions.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇿🇦 Trump makes ‘white genocide’ claims in meeting with South African president Ramaphosa: U.S. President Donald Trump triggered diplomatic friction during a White House meeting by showing South African President Cyril Ramaphosa a video alleging white South Africans were victims of genocide—describing the situation as “the opposite of apartheid.” Ramaphosa firmly rejected the claims, stressing that South Africa’s constitution protects all citizens and that crime actually disproportionately affects Black communities. Trump, echoing right-wing narratives championed by Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson, insisted white farmers were being targeted, while Ramaphosa invoked Nelson Mandela’s legacy of dialogue. The exchange came amid deteriorating U.S.–South Africa relations, marked by disputes over land reform, U.S. sanctions, and divergent positions on the Israel-Gaza conflict.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇩 Turkey-backed Islamists fuel Sudan’s expanding war: Sudan’s civil war is intensifying as Islamist militias aligned with the army, notably the Al-Baraa bin Malik group, gain prominence. Analysts link these factions to the Muslim Brotherhood and accuse Turkey, Qatar, and Iran of funnelling weapons—especially Turkish drones—outside official channels. Evidence reveals Ankara’s Baykar company has supplied drones and munitions worth over $120 million to forces in Port Sudan. Meanwhile, Burhan tolerates these groups, hoping they counter the RSF while not threatening his regime—yet tensions remain. The disarray risks turning Sudan into a proxy battleground and dismantling hopes for civilian rule. As international actors weigh responses, Sudan teeters on the edge of deeper fragmentation and Islamist entrenchment.

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Tips & Suggestions

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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