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This week, tensions simmer in the South China Sea and the Middle East amid ongoing geopolitical competition. Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice witnesses notable activity as Nicaragua pursues a case against Germany, and Mexico initiates proceedings against Ecuador. In South Korea, significant political shifts follow parliamentary elections, while Sudan marks one year since the onset of its devastating conflict.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇮🇱 Israel: Iran launched an unprecedented aerial attack on Israeli territory, firing over 300 drones and missiles, including 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles that were all intercepted. The attack also involved 110 ballistic missiles, few of which managed to strike Israeli territory. Alerts and explosions were reported across several regions, with the Iron Dome intercepting the majority of the projectiles. The attack, coordinated with launches from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, saw interventions by the US, UK, France, and Jordan, who collectively neutralized nearly all threats.

2️⃣🌎🇲🇽 Mexico City/The Hague: In response to Ecuador's armed raid on its embassy in Quito, Mexico has requested the International Court of Justice suspend Ecuador from the United Nations until a public apology is issued. The raid, which violated international diplomatic laws, occurred as Ecuadorian police arrested asylum-granted former Vice President Jorge Glas. Mexico's Foreign Minister Alicia Barcena expressed confidence in the support for Mexico's legal action, emphasizing the inviolability of embassy sovereignty under international law.

3️⃣🇰🇷 South Korea: South Korea's opposition Democratic Party secured a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections, winning 175 seats and strengthening its majority in the 300-member legislature. This outcome puts President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose ruling People Power Party now holds only 108 seats, in a difficult position amid his already low approval ratings. The election, marked by a record 67% voter turnout, is seen as a rebuke of Yoon's policies, including his handling of economic issues and medical reforms.

4️⃣🇵🇸 Gaza: Nicaragua has taken Germany to the ICJ, alleging it supplied military equipment to Israel, exacerbating the Gaza conflict. Germany's position as Israel's second-largest military supplier after the USA is not in dispute, however, Nicaragua contends the arms facilitated Israeli genocide. The ICJ's interim non-dismissal of South Africa's genocide case against Israel fuels Nicaragua's allegations, however, the requested provisional measure for a cessation of hostilities in this case was not granted.

5️⃣🌏🇺🇸 Washington, D.C.: During a historic joint summit with leaders from Japan and the Philippines, President Joe Biden reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to defend the Philippines against any attacks in the South China Sea, describing U.S. defense promises as "ironclad." The summit follows heightened tensions due to Chinese confrontations in the region, including "gray-zone" tactics like shining military-grade lasers at Philippine Coast Guard vessels. Amid these regional frictions, Biden's assertion underscores a strong U.S.-Philippines alliance, standing in stark contrast to Beijing's assertive maritime claims and actions.

Major Story

Since the 2019 popular uprising against long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan– leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti”– head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)– have effectively co-ruled Sudan. Despite collaborating to overthrow the subsequent civilian government in a 2021 coup, al-Burhan and Hemedti’s respective ambitions for political preeminence saw them at loggerheads.

On April 15, 2023, conflict erupted in Khartoum, as tensions between the RSF and SAF reached boiling point. In the ensuing months, Sudan crumbled under the weight of the Hemedti-al-Burhan rivalry, fuelled by long-standing grievances regarding resource access, political identity disputes, and disagreements over the composition of state institutions. In a significant development, Wad Madani– the capital of El Gezira state and a crucial hub for humanitarian operations since the outbreak of the war– fell to the RSF following a four-day battle with the SAF in December, stymying aid access to the region.

As the one-year anniversary of the conflict approaches this week, little improvement is seen in the dire situation. For populations in Darfur, Kordofan, Gezira, and Khartoum, the scale of the violence has been unprecedented. Not since the early 1990s– when Somalia's national army disintegrated– has a country experienced such a comprehensive breakdown of its military, civil structures, and intellectual leadership. The result is an administrative void that may take decades to fill, posing significant challenges for the country's future stability and recovery.

The conflict's proxy dimension has been substantial, presenting considerable difficulties for international actor’s efforts to curtail the violence. With the RSF receiving support from the UAE and Russia, and the SAF backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran, the war’s momentum fluctuates. The conflict has exacted a devastating toll, with tens of thousands of lives lost and millions displaced, with an additional 18 million facing famine. In Darfur, reports of a second genocide have emerged.

As the conflict persists, the task of rebuilding Sudan becomes increasingly complex, underscoring the urgent need for a renewal of substantive humanitarian corridors, and diplomatic solutions to end the violence. At this critical juncture, it is evident that states and international bodies with influence must prioritise concerted action to bring about a resolution. Efforts to promote peace in Sudan have seen a renewed vigour with the appointment of new envoys by the U.S., UN, and African Union. However, despite this diplomatic push, a cohesive and urgent approach to fostering peace remains elusive, both Hemedti and al-Burhan resist calls for a ceasefire, prolonging the suffering of the Sudanese people.

Other News

1️⃣🇳🇪 Niger pivots from US to Russia amidst insurgency: Since 2012, Niger, facing a worsening insurgency linked to al-Qaida and IS, has sought substantial external support. Recent moves signal a shift as Russian military trainers bolster Niger's air defences, indicating a departure from US cooperation in counterterrorism efforts. This shift signifies a rising trend of Russian sway and a diminishing presence of French and US influence in the Sahel region.

2️⃣🇷🇼🇬🇧 UK and Rwanda heads of state meet: Rishi Sunak hosted Rwandan President Kagame at Downing Street amid challenges in executing the UK’s deportation plan. With logistical hurdles in Kigali and criticism from Suella Braverman, the meeting addressed the £500m plan aiming to send asylum seekers to central Africa. The safety of Rwanda bill returns to the Commons two years after Boris Johnson announced the initiative, yet no deportations have occurred.

3️⃣🇨🇦 Foreign interference inquiry in Canada: Canada's spy agency faces scrutiny as Prime Minister Trudeau and his advisers claim they were unaware of a report alleging Beijing's covert interference in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Amid a public inquiry into foreign meddling, including by China and Russia, questions arise over the intelligence agency's handling of the matter.

4️⃣🇵🇸🇪🇺 EU: Ireland and Spain have reaffirmed their commitment to recognizing Palestine, with reports suggesting Norway will soon join them. Taoiseach Simon Harris and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez pledged to rally global support for a two-state solution to the Gaza conflict. Meeting in Dublin, they have sought to bolster diplomatic efforts both within and beyond the EU to advance their cause. Since 1988, 140 out of 193 United Nations member states have acknowledged Palestinian statehood.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇪🇹 Ethiopia requests IMF investment: Ethiopia faces pressure to devalue its currency to qualify for an IMF rescue loan after failed negotiations last week. The country's default on debt, coupled with high inflation, signals economic strain. Previous lending arrangements faltered in 2021, with no IMF funds received since 2020. Despite recent progress in discussions, a deal remains uncertain. The IMF's Spring Meetings in Washington DC may shed light on Ethiopia's financial future.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

🇬🇲 Gambia pushes to legalise FGM: A delegation of UN experts, led by Reem Alsalem, the UN special rapporteur on violence against women and girls, is urging Gambian lawmakers to uphold the ban on female genital mutilation (FGM). Alsalem cautions that repealing the ban will have dangerous, far reaching implications, as “What happens in the Gambia does not stay in the Gambia." The final legislative decision on this matter is expected in the coming weeks.

🇺🇸 US inflation still higher than anticipated: The latest US inflation report casts doubt on the likelihood of interest rate cuts. March's significant surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), marking the largest monthly increase in nearly four decades at 0.6%, signals mounting inflationary pressures. Rising costs in energy, housing, and food underscore concerns about sustained inflation eroding purchasing power and economic recovery. As the Federal Reserve faces intensified scrutiny, discussions may return to further rate hikes to counteract inflation and maintain economic stability.

🇮🇳 Indian Elections: As India braces for upcoming elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a formidable challenge from a united opposition coalition. Modi's leadership will be tested amid criticism over economic slowdown, agrarian distress, and handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The opposition, led by the Indian National Congress and regional parties, seeks to capitalise on public discontent. As India’s economic and geopolitical influence grows, the impact of the world’s largest election cannot be understated.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ ‘Violence is the last resort of the incompetent’ - Isaac Asimov

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