Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 North Korean troops in Ukraine

📰 North Korean troops in Ukraine

and Biden warns Israel

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 20, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, headlines are dominated by the ongoing Middle East conflict. Yahya Sinwar, the newly appointed head of Hamas' political bureau, was killed in Rafah. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council has reaffirmed the mandate of UNIFIL in South Lebanon following Israeli attacks on its troops.

India is also in the spotlight, as its diplomatic dispute with Canada resurfaces. The Indian foreign minister attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization conclave in Pakistan, and India has finalised a $3.5 billion deal with the U.S. for Predator drones.

Additionally, Egypt and Sudan have rejected the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), highlighting ongoing tensions over water rights in the region.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Washington threatens Israel with conditional arms sales: The Biden administration has warned Israel of potential consequences—including a halt to U.S. military aid—if it doesn't allow more humanitarian assistance into Gaza. In a letter dated October 13, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin urged Israel to ease restrictions within 30 days or face "policy implications." This correspondence, addressed to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, was confirmed as authentic by the State Department following a leak.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Yahya Sinwar killed in Rafah: Israel announced that its forces had killed Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, during an operation in the southern Gaza Strip. The military stated that Sinwar was ‘eliminated on Wednesday along with three other fighters.’ This follows Sinwar’s recent appointment as Hamas's political bureau head after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran on July 31. While Israel confirmed the death, Hamas has not yet commented.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 🇱🇧 UN Security Council affirms UNIFIL mandate in South Lebanon: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) voiced support for UNIFIL peacekeepers in South Lebanon on Monday, following a series of attacks targeting the force. In its statement, the 15-member council called on “all parties to respect the safety and security of UNIFIL personnel and premises,” without specifically naming Israel. The UNSC emphasised that UN peacekeepers and facilities “must never be the target of an attack” and reaffirmed UNIFIL's crucial role in maintaining regional stability. The statement coincided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's intensified rhetoric, urging UN peacekeepers to “temporarily get out of harm’s way” in response to Israel’s demand for UNIFIL to vacate positions in Lebanon. Israel has recently expanded ground operations and launched heavy bombings, leading to hundreds of casualties and displacing a quarter of Lebanon's population.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 400’000 people trapped in North Gaza as Israel unleashes new Jabalia offensive: Airstrikes in northern Gaza have claimed dozens of Palestinian lives as Israeli forces intensify their offensive on the Palestinian territory amid escalating conflict in Lebanon. On Saturday, the IDF reiterated evacuation orders for residents in northern Gaza, including areas in Sheikh Radwan and near the Jabalia refugee camp. However, many civilians find it impossible to leave due to ongoing fighting and sniper fire. Currently, 84% of Gaza is under evacuation orders, pushing people into shrinking "humanitarian zones" that continue to be targeted by airstrikes. The UN estimates that around 400,000 individuals are trapped by ongoing ground combat and shelling in Jabalia. Gaza's health ministry has urgently requested access for medical teams and fuel deliveries to northern hospitals, while the World Food Programme reports that food aid to the area has been halted since October 1, raising fears of a deepening humanitarian crisis.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇦 India-Canada diplomatic dispute reignites: The longstanding diplomatic rift between India and Canada has flared up again, with both nations announcing the expulsion of diplomats over accusations of Indian government agents threatening Canadian safety. The latest escalation began on Monday, when India’s Ministry of External Affairs disclosed that it had received a communication from Canada identifying Indian diplomats as “persons of interest” in a Canadian investigation. Relations worsened last year after Canada launched an inquiry into possible links between Indian agents and the murder of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on the country’s west coast. India has consistently denied involvement, calling the allegations “preposterous” and stating that it would pull its diplomats from Canada. In response, Canada announced the expulsion of six Indian diplomats, citing evidence from federal police that implicated Indian agents in activities jeopardising public safety.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇨🇳 RUSSIA AND CHINA STRENGTHEN MILITARY TIES IN BILATERAL EXCHANGE BETWEEN DEFENCE MINISTERS

Background

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in Beijing on Monday for discussions with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, who advocated for deepening military collaboration between the nations. The visit is part of the expanding Russia-China alliance, which has drawn concern in the West since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Both countries appear eager to bolster their global influence through closer strategic ties.

Strategic Collaboration Agenda

Belousov's visit included meetings with Chinese military and political leaders, with a focus on advancing bilateral military relations. A statement by China's defence ministry highlighted Dong Jun’s call for enhanced "strategic collaboration" and ongoing progress in their military partnership. Dong emphasised that the relationship, guided by Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, had reached unprecedented levels, setting a standard for global power relations.

Military Cooperation and Global Stability

Belousov echoed these sentiments, acknowledging that the "friendly relations" between the two presidents played a crucial role in reinforcing their strategic partnership. He stressed that military cooperation was essential for "maintaining global and regional stability." The visit underlines the evolving military alliance, which has seen multiple joint military exercises following their declaration of a "no limits" partnership prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Expanding Military and Economic Ventures

Russia and China have conducted various military drills, including large-scale naval exercises in the Sea of Japan last month—the largest of their kind in three decades, according to Putin. The growing military collaboration is complemented by strengthening economic and trade ties, which Putin described in August as "yielding results." The closer military alignment between Russia and China represents a significant shift in global power dynamics, raising concerns in North American and European capitals about the implications for regional and international security.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 India, U.S. agree on $3.5bn Predator drone deal: India has finalised a deal with the US to acquire 31 Predator drones, the Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday. The agreement involves procuring the MQ-9B Sky/Sea Guardian drones, which are high-altitude, long-endurance remotely piloted aircraft systems. According to local reports, the deal is valued at under $3.5 billion and will see the drones distributed across the navy, air force, and army. The Defence Ministry also confirmed the signing of an agreement with General Atomics Global India for depot-level maintenance, repair, and overhaul services within the country. The contracts were formalised in a ceremony held in New Delhi, attended by Defence Secretary Giridhar Aramane. The addition of these drones is expected to significantly enhance India's surveillance and operational capabilities across all military branches.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Indian foreign minister in Pakistan for Shanghai Cooperation Organisation conclave: Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar arrived in Pakistan on Tuesday, marking the first visit by an Indian foreign minister in nearly a decade, to attend an SCO summit. Held in Islamabad, the event has drawn nearly a dozen leaders, with heightened security measures in place. The summit's main sessions will occur on Wednesday. Despite strained relations, no bilateral meeting between India and Pakistan is planned. However, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Jaishankar briefly interacted during a dinner hosted by Sharif for SCO leaders. The SCO, established in 2001 by China and Russia, focuses on Eurasian security and political issues, and this meeting is one of the highest-profile events hosted in Pakistan in recent years. Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Russia's Mikhail Mishustin are among the attendees, along with leaders from Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

3️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 North Korean troops fighting for Russia in Ukraine, says Kyiv: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has raised concerns over a deepening alliance between Russia and North Korea, highlighting that it's no longer just about weapon transfers but also the movement of North Korean personnel to aid Russian forces. Since Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have strengthened, including a defence agreement signed in June during President Putin's first visit to North Korea in 25 years. Following reports of North Korean soldiers dying in Russian-occupied Donetsk, South Korea's Defense Minister suggested that North Korean troops might be fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine. In his Sunday address, Zelenskyy reiterated the need for Ukraine's allies to provide more long-range weaponry to counter Russian advances, stressing that "true peace can only be achieved through strength." This week, Ukraine's future support is a focus for EU meetings in Luxembourg and Brussels, where funding and military aid will be discussed.

4️⃣ 🇰🇪 Kenya impeaches Deputy President Gachagua: In a landmark decision, the Kenyan Senate has voted to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, marking the first such removal since the 2010 constitution introduced impeachment proceedings. The 59-year-old was found guilty on five out of 11 charges following two days of hearings. The Senate only needed to uphold one charge to oust him from office. This vote comes after the National Assembly overwhelmingly approved a similar motion last week. Gachagua, who had strongly denied all allegations, faced charges including corruption, money laundering, insubordination, ethnic divisiveness, bullying public officials, and threatening a judge.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇪🇬 🇸🇩 🇪🇹 Egypt and Sudan reject Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA): The CFA came into effect on Sunday, despite ongoing opposition from Cairo and Khartoum, according to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The agreement establishes the Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC), which aims to foster collaboration among Basin states on Nile governance. While Egypt and Sudan have rejected the deal, it has gained support from upstream countries, including Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan, and DR Congo. Prime Minister Abiy encouraged non-signatories to join what he termed the "Nile Family," advocating for regional cooperation in the fair utilisation of the river's resources. The CFA marks the first comprehensive multilateral effort to establish a legal framework for managing the Nile. Tensions persist between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Ethiopia sees as crucial for development, while Egypt fears its impact on water supplies.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Israel has ‘narrowed down its targets’ for Iran strike, says Washington: U.S. officials indicate that Israel is focusing its planned response to Iran's recent missile strike on military and energy infrastructure targets. While nuclear facilities and assassinations are reportedly not part of the plan, Israel has not finalised when or how it will act. No exact timeline has been shared with U.S. officials, who speculate that Israel's response could occur during Yom Kippur. The U.S. is prepared to protect its regional assets but is unlikely to offer direct military support for Israel's anticipated retaliation.