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📰 North Korean troops in Russia

📰 North Korean troops in Russia

what's the deal with it?

Ross Crabtree
October 24, 2024

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The deployment of North Korean troops to Russia, most likely destined for Ukraine, is a notable escalation in the conflict and could have significant geopolitical repercussions. The presence of these troops, confirmed by U.S., South Korean, and Ukrainian officials, illustrates not only a new chapter in Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine but also a deeper convergence between two nations that are considered pariahs by many in the international community. Let’s delve into the bigger picture ⤵️

Russia's Strategic Calculations and Pragmatic Approach

For Russia, bringing in North Korean forces is seen by many as a sign of desperation, but also a pragmatic move, given the need to sustain a war that has depleted its manpower. Despite domestic recruitment efforts, including mobilizing convicts and expanding its military ranks with soldiers from poorer nations, Russia reportedly continues to face high casualty rates, with some estimates surpassing 600,000 dead or injured. North Korean troops offer an alternative source of manpower, albeit without the benefit of experience in modern combat or familiarity with the Russian language. These troops have reportedly been sent to Russian training facilities in the Far East, suggesting that they are being prepared for eventual deployment to active frontlines.

Strengthening the Russia-North Korea Alliance

The relationship between Russia and North Korea has been evolving steadily since the war began. While North Korea had already been supplying Russia with munitions, artillery shells, and other equipment, the introduction of combat forces marks a significant shift in Pyongyang's involvement. This move comes after the June 2024 defense pact signed between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which called for mutual military support. This partnership underscores the growing alliance among states opposed to Western influence and values, raising concerns in Washington, Seoul, and beyond.

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North Korea's Strategic Incentives

For North Korea, there are strategic incentives to join this conflict. While the risks are high—with the potential for both combat losses and desertions—Kim Jong-un stands to gain economically and militarily. Analysts speculate that Russia might offer North Korea sophisticated technology and potentially boost the development of its nuclear and missile programs. Additionally, combat experience gained by North Korean troops, including drone warfare, could modernize Pyongyang's largely outdated military capabilities. This battlefield exposure could serve as a foundation for future provocations on the Korean Peninsula, emboldening North Korea in its posture towards both South Korea and the United States.

Impact on South Korea and Regional Stability

The implications for South Korea and other allies in the Indo-Pacific are significant. The South Korean government has condemned North Korea’s troop deployment and hinted at a shift in its stance on providing military aid to Ukraine. Up until now, Seoul has limited itself to humanitarian support, but this development might push it to provide lethal weapons. South Korea’s increased military cooperation with NATO also signals its readiness to align more closely with Western security interests in the face of escalating threats. Meanwhile, Japan and other regional actors are likely monitoring these developments, given the growing possibility of heightened instability in East Asia.

The West's Perspective: A Grim Indicator for Moscow

The West sees the deployment as a grim indicator of Moscow's military struggles. While Russia has officially dismissed the claims of North Korean troop deployment, the collaboration reveals a deeper entanglement between two isolated regimes, united by a common enemy: the liberal democratic order led by the United States. This partnership might push North Korea further onto the world stage, giving it leverage it has long lacked, but also exposing its troops to realities that Kim Jong-un may find difficult to control. Moreover, reports of desertions by North Korean soldiers in Russia could signal potential cracks in the loyalty of Pyongyang’s forces, a scenario that could have repercussions back home in North Korea.

A Broader Geopolitical Shift

Ultimately, the involvement of North Korean troops in Ukraine is more than just a tactical addition to Russia’s war effort—it is a move that redefines alliances, shifts the regional power calculus, and complicates the global geopolitical landscape. As Western countries continue to support Ukraine in the conflict with Russia, the new involvement of North Korean forces introduces unpredictable variables, potentially intensifying the conflict and leading to further militarization on multiple fronts.