Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 Greenland to talk to Trump

📰 Greenland to talk to Trump

and Indonesia joins BRICS

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 12, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, Denmark has pursued in discussions with Trump over Greenland following his statement that he would not rule out using military force to acquire it. Meanwhile, Taiwan accuses China of undermining its democracy through disinformation campaigns.

Elsewhere, the United States accuses UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces of committing genocide in Sudan, while fighting has erupted in Syria’s Kurdish–held northeasts.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇸 🇦🇪 UAE–backed Rapid Support Forces have committed genocide in Sudan, says United States: Washington has declared that Sudan’s RSF committed genocide during the ongoing civil war, the second such atrocity in Sudan in under 30 years. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced sanctions against RSF commander Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, citing widespread ethnic violence and systematic killings, particularly in Darfur. Blinken accused the RSF of massacring civilians, targeting ethnic groups, and obstructing humanitarian aid. The RSF, emerging from the Janjaweed militias responsible for Darfur’s atrocities in the 2000s, has been locked in a brutal war with Sudan’s Armed Forces since 2023. The conflict has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions. In addition to sanctioning Hemedti, the US targeted RSF-linked companies and individuals in the UAE accused of supplying weapons and funds. The declaration may lead to further international measures against the RSF and its allies.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 Lebanon elects Joseph Aoun as first president in over two years: Lebanon's newly elected President, Joseph Aoun, secured a decisive parliamentary victory, ending a two-year political deadlock that left key state institutions in limbo. Backed tacitly by Saudi Arabia, France, and the United States, and unopposed by the Hizbollah-Amal Shia bloc, Aoun pledged sweeping reforms in his inaugural address. He vowed to combat corruption, ensure judicial independence, and dismantle illicit arms networks, promising to rebuild areas devastated by Israel’s most recent invasion. Aoun also reaffirmed the state’s exclusive right to bear arms, a declaration welcomed by Hizbollah’s rivals, who argue that state-building is impossible while armed groups persist. The international community is closely watching Aoun’s leadership, as Beirut faces pressure to disarm militias, secure borders, and enforce UN resolutions in southern Lebanon.

3️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇬🇹 🇸🇻 Central American security contingent arrives in Haiti to fight gangs: Troops from Guatemala and El Salvador arrived in Haiti's capital on Friday to support the United Nations-backed mission aimed at restoring security amid escalating gang violence. The group included 75 Guatemalan soldiers and eight Salvadoran troops. Haiti's transitional president, Leslie Voltaire, Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime, and U.S. Ambassador Dennis Hankins welcomed the troops at Port-au-Prince's airport. The government stated that the troops were sent to reinforce the Multinational Force in combating gang violence. Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo had pledged to send 150 military police in September, while El Salvador committed to providing 78 soldiers for medical evacuation operations and three helicopters to aid the mission.

4️⃣ 🇮🇩 Indonesia accedes to BRICS membership: Indonesia officially became the tenth member of BRICS on Monday, joining the group of emerging economies. Brazil—the current BRICS chair for 2025—announced Indonesia’s entry, highlighting the country’s significant economic and demographic influence in Southeast Asia. The Brazilian government emphasized Indonesia’s shared commitment to global governance reform and South-South cooperation. Although BRICS leaders endorsed Indonesia’s membership in August 2023, the nation delayed joining until after its new government was in place.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 Northern Syrian erupts as Turkish–backed SNA fights Kurdish forces: The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that clashes near Manbij resulted in the deaths of 85 Turkey-backed fighters and 16 Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters. The largely Kurdish SDF, supported by the US, stated that it had successfully repelled all attacks, which were aided by Turkish airstrikes. The violence erupted when the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) resumed its offensive against the SDF, following the November 2023 ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by rebel forces. The conflict resulted in the capture of Manbij and Tal Rifaat in northern Aleppo, with both sides suffering significant casualties. The SNA now aims to seize the cities of Kobane and al-Tabqa before advancing toward Raqqa.

Major Story

🇸🇾 SYRIA’S SHADOW ECONOMY: THE FALL OF A NARCO-STATE

The term "narco-state" is often criticized for its vague and broad application, writes New Lines’ Ralph Outhwaite, as it is traditionally associated with state failure, the concept implies a country where criminal syndicates infiltrate government institutions. However, Syria under Bashar al-Assad challenges this narrative, as the regime, rather than succumbing to criminal influence, actively sponsored and profited from the production of captagon, a powerful amphetamine.

State Sponsorship of the Drug Trade

Unlike typical narco-states, where declining state authority allows criminal groups to thrive, Syria’s government deliberately promoted the captagon trade. Under the protection of Assad’s loyalist forces, including the 4th Armored Division and various militias, Syria became a hub for captagon production. The regime’s involvement in the narcotics trade provided vital financial support, especially amid the economic hardships caused by international sanctions. Between 2020 and 2023, millions of captagon pills were confiscated, revealing the scale of the trade, which targeted markets in Jordan and the Gulf.

The Economic Impact

The captagon trade became a cornerstone of Syria’s economy, with estimates suggesting it generated between $1.9 billion and $5.6 billion annually. However, these profits did not fund state services such as education or healthcare. Instead, they lined the pockets of Assad’s patronage networks, underscoring Syria’s shift from a narco-failed state to a "narco-regime"—where the regime itself controls and benefits from the illicit economy.

Syria exemplifies a “narco-state” not through failure, but as a deliberate policy choice by the regime. The future of Syria’s involvement in the captagon trade depends on whether the next government continues the cycle of state-sponsored narcotrafficking or dismantles it entirely.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇩🇰 🇺🇸 🇬🇱 Denmark pursues Greenland discussions with Trump: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has requested talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump following his controversial remarks about acquiring Greenland, possibly by force. Frederiksen said she expects the conversation to occur after Trump’s inauguration on January 20 but noted he has yet to respond. While Trump has openly floated expansionist ideas regarding Greenland since his election, Frederiksen firmly stated, “Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders,” emphasizing Denmark’s commitment to respecting the island’s autonomy. Amid the tensions, Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede renewed calls for full independence from Denmark, framing it as a step away from colonial legacies.

2️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan accuses China of undermining democracy with disinformation: Taiwan’s government has accused China of intensifying efforts to undermine its democracy and its close relationship with the United States by spreading disinformation, particularly online. The National Security Bureau reported that the amount of false or biased information distributed by China surged by 60% in 2024, rising from 1.33 million to 2.16 million pieces. The report, issued on Friday, noted that social media platforms such as Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), and TikTok were the primary channels for this disinformation. China has reportedly created fake accounts on platforms like YouTube, employed AI to generate misleading videos, and flooded comment sections with pro-China propaganda, despite banning such platforms within its own borders.

3️⃣ 🇨🇲 🇳🇬 Nigerian militants attack Cameroonian security forces: Armed men suspected to be Nigerian militants crossed into southern Cameroon, launching attacks that left at least seven Cameroonian soldiers dead and displaced civilians from approximately 15 villages. Villagers in Akwaya district, near Nigeria’s Taraba state, reported that the attackers crossed the Moon River twice during the week, taking advantage of low water levels to move easily by foot. The assailants—believed to be ethnic Fulani—fired indiscriminately, burned houses, and threatened civilians. Cameroon's military responded, engaging the attackers in gunfire, but faced a larger, better-armed group during a subsequent assault that left five soldiers and two gendarmes dead. The Cameroonian government suspects the militants aim to occupy the area and has deployed additional troops along the border. Authorities are coordinating with Nigeria to prevent further incursions and strengthen border security.