Another good evening from sunny Australia!

This week tensions have escalated in the Middle East between Iran and Israel, while action at the UN regarding Haiti and Palestine also grabbed headlines.

An alleged assassination attempt on Ukraine's President Zelensky and upcoming elections in the Basque Country and Togo add to the intensity.

This and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 Palestine: The US vetoed Palestine’s bid for full UN statehood despite majority support, with 12 Security Council member states voting in favour and the UK and Switzerland abstaining. Maintaining that it supports a two-state solution, the US asserts that only direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine can dictate this outcome. However, dissenting voices, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres, warn that a lack of progress toward this goal will exacerbate regional volatility.

2️⃣ 🇭🇹🇫🇷 Haiti: At the UN Permanent Forum on People of African Descent in Geneva, a coalition of NGOs demand billions in reparations for Haiti from its former coloniser, France. They seek amends for penalties imposed by France due to a ‘loss of income’ following Haitian independence in 1804.  The coalition seeks an independent commission to oversee debt restitution, claiming the money would help it restore security in Haiti amid a period of significant unrest.

3️⃣ 🇻🇪 Venezuela: The US has reimposed sanctions on Venezuela, targeting its oil, gas and mining industries. Sanctions were lifted in October 2023, following promises from President Maduro to hold free elections in July. However, following the obstruction of Maduro’s main rival’s candidacy for election, as well as the imprisonment of several dissenting members of the media, the US once again pressures the Maduro regime over alleged human rights abuses and corruption.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦 Ukraine: A Polish man, identified only as Pawel K, has been arrested under allegations of involvement in an attempt to assassinate Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelensky. Polish prosecutors state that the individual was under Kremlin control, and had intentions to impart security information on Rzeszów-Jasionka airport to Russian intelligence. The airport is under control of US troops and is frequently used by Zelensky among other international leaders, as well as aid workers.

5️⃣ 🇦🇺 Australia has announced a AUD $50bn boost in military spending over the next decade. This amounts to an annual military budget of $100bn, and 2.4% of Australia’s GDP. Commentators cite a sustained period of Chinese aggression in the South Pacific as the likely motive. Due to Australia’s long-standing dependence on China as its largest trading partner, it faces a delicate task of balancing its economic interests with security concerns.

Major Story

Iran and Israel Tensions at Boiling Point

Iran attacks Israel 

In the early morning of April 13, the ominous wail of sirens pierced the air across Tel Aviv, Ashqelon, and other parts of Israel, heralding the looming threat of airstrikes. 

Amidst the backdrop of covert military engagements within larger regional conflicts, the Iran-Israel rivalry is typically played out in the shadows. However, on April 13, this dynamic changed as Iran launched its first-ever attack on Israel proper. While some observers interpreted Iran's pre-announced assault as a strategic manoeuvre– signalling resolve rather than seeking to cause significant damage– others saw it as a blatant challenge, devoid of any calculated restraint.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) initiated an aerial assault on a series of Israeli targets, involving over 300 armed drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles. With support from the U.S., U.K., and Jordan, Israel intercepted the vast majority of projectiles, resulting in minor damage to an airstrip and no fatalities. Both Israel and the U.S. expressed satisfaction at foiling a potentially catastrophic attack, although Israel vowed further responses while the U.S. urged de-escalation.

The symbolism of Iran’s attack

Tehran’s riposte was a symbolic moment, signalling the growing influence of hardline policy hawks within Iran's security establishment. It marked a significant departure from Iran’s traditional implementation of proxy groups in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria to engage with Israel, showcasing the full extent of its arsenal, its increasing military prowess, and its willingness to directly confront adversaries.

Israel attacks Isfahan

On the morning of Friday, April 19, Israel perilously embraced the escalatory spiral. Iran's Fars news agency reported that drones– believed to be Israeli– had struck targets near Iranian city Isfahan’s airport, before Iran's space agency spokesperson, Hossein Dalirian, confirmed the downing of "several" drones. Isfahan hosts critical military installations, including nuclear facilities, a major airbase, and factories linked to Iranian armament production.

Iran's leaders have pledged swift retribution for any aggression on their soil, yet their response thus far has been notably restrained, prompting speculation that both sides might be inclined to seek an opportunity for de-escalation.

While some factions within Iran– particularly the IRGC– might welcome confrontation, the prevailing consensus is that a direct conflict with Israel is unwinnable. Pragmatic voices within the regime have sought to downplay the significance of Israeli attacks, citing their limited impact on Iran's strategic programs and inability to fundamentally alter Iran's regional behaviour.

Where does this leave us?

The six-month offensive in Gaza has thus far failed to achieve its ostensible objectives of toppling Hamas or securing the release of hostages, whilst escalations with Iran-backed Hizbollah on Israel’s northern border have steadily intensified. For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this presents a juncture at which his political calculus may be to broaden Israel’s military campaign to shift international focus away from Gaza, and domestic focus away from his mounting legal and political pressures. 

The limited impact of Iran’s retaliation and Israel’s subsequent response in Isfahan presents a critical opportunity for de-escalation. Both sides have succeeded in achieving something of a short-term deterrence– absorbing the respective attacks– and both have reasons to claim temporary satisfaction. However, with red-lines redrawn and retaliation strategies amorphous, the spectre and stakes of regional conflict continue to escalate.

Promotion

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Other News

1️⃣🇪🇺🇺🇦 G7 reaffirms support for Ukraine: The Group of Seven (G7) leaders have reaffirmed their support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity against Russia's illegal invasion. They view Russia's actions as a threat to international peace and security, violating international law and the UN Charter. The G7 pledges to stand with Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression, committing to specific, bilateral, long-term security and economic stability arrangements to bolster Ukraine's defence capabilities.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷🇸🇩 Diplomats convene in Paris to find humanitarian solutions in Sudan: Sudan grapples with the aftermath of a year-long conflict, prompting urgent aid efforts led by the US special envoy and regional leaders. With 24 million Sudanese in need and the UN's $2.7 billion humanitarian appeal largely unmet, Paris hosts a diplomatic gathering to address the crisis. Despite initial US and Saudi efforts to negotiate peace, Sudan faces escalating turmoil. Meanwhile, relief workers warn of an impending famine, exacerbated by disrupted food distribution networks in the hardest-hit areas.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲🇹🇭 Rebels target Junta troops at Myanmar-Thailand frontier: Fierce fighting erupted at Myanmar's eastern border with Thailand on Saturday, leading to the displacement of 3,000 civilians as rebels clashed with Myanmar junta troops barricaded at a bridge border crossing. The capture of the key trading town of Myawaddy on April 11 by resistance fighters and ethnic minority rebels poses a significant challenge to the military regime, which struggles to maintain control amid multiple conflicts and a faltering economy following the 2021 coup.

4️⃣🇵🇭🇨🇳 US military drills near Philippines irks China: Philippine and US forces are set to conduct their inaugural military exercises beyond the Philippines' territorial waters, a move criticised by China as escalating tensions in the South China Sea. The annual Balikatan drills, dubbed "shoulder-to-shoulder," will involve 16,700 soldiers simulating operations to reclaim enemy-held islands in areas near Taiwan and the South China Sea. This marks the first time such maritime exercises will extend beyond Philippine waters and include the Philippine Coast Guard, amid heightened tensions with China in disputed areas like Second Thomas Shoal. China's foreign ministry cautioned against external forces' involvement, warning it could worsen regional stability.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇸🇧 Solomon Islands: The Solomon Islands' elections saw a significant shift towards China. Originally scheduled for 2023, the polls were postponed due to the expense of hosting the Pacific Games. Since the nation's diplomatic switch from Taiwan to China in 2019, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has actively pursued stronger ties. A 2022 security pact with China raised concerns in the West about Beijing's Pacific ambitions, heightening scrutiny of the election for potential further alignment with China.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇪🇸 Basque elections: Spain's Basque Country heads to the polls Sunday for a regional election, with leftist separatist coalition Bildu poised for victory, embodying the legacy of ETA, a former armed separatist group. This outcome could challenge Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialist Workers party, caught between two crucial allies. EH Bildu, considered ETA's political successor, garners support for its progressive stance on social issues, likely securing the most votes over the long-dominant centrist Basque Nationalist Party. The Basque region, despite its distinct identity, remains unrecognised as a separate entity within Spain.

2️⃣ 🇹🇬 Togo elections: President Faure Gnassingbe's commitment to hold elections within 12 months, made in December 2022, has been repeatedly postponed. Togo's previous poll in 2018 saw opposition boycotts. Gnassingbe, who has been in power since 2005, has consistently emerged victorious in elections. The upcoming election, initially scheduled for April 29, was deferred due to heightened tensions surrounding proposed constitutional changes. Critics argue that these reforms are designed to extend Gnassingbe's tenure.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "Peace is not the absence of conflict, but the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means." - Ronald Reagan

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

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