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- 🧨 New Caledonia explodes
🧨 New Caledonia explodes
and Israel-Egypt relations hit a new low
Ross Crabtree
May 19, 2024
Hello and welcome back!
Stories from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine once again dominate this week's newsletter, while news of civil unrest in New Caledonia and Pakistan also makes headlines. This week’s major story concerns Myanmar, where the military junta’s grip on power loosens, amidst a worsening humanitarian crisis.
Looking ahead, we cover the looming instability in South Sudan, and the prospect US-facilitated normalisation talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel
Let’s get into it ⤵️
Top 5 Stories
1️⃣ 🇳🇨 New Caledonian riots against constitution change: French territory New Caledonia has imposed curfews and banned public gatherings in Nouméa following violent protests over changes to voter eligibility. The unrest resulted in looting, arson, and significant damage to businesses. Thirty-six people were arrested, and several police officers were injured, prompting France to deploy hundreds of police. The territory has held three referendums on independence, all of which rejected it, with Indigenous Kanaks boycotting the last vote due to the pandemic. The Noumea Accord of 1998 prevents updating voter lists, excluding recent residents. President Macron seeks a revised constitutional status to bolster France's influence in the Pacific.
2️⃣ 🇮🇱🇪🇬 Israel-Egypt relations at their worst since the Camp David accords: Due to the IDF offensive in Rafah, and fears from Cairo that the Rafah crossing would be destroyed and allow unfettered access for Palestinians into Sinai, bilateral relations between Israel and Egypt have significantly deteriorated. An Israeli delegation visited Egypt to ease tensions after capturing the Rafah border crossing, discussing reopening it and advancing a prisoner exchange with Hamas. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry called for an end to Israel's operation in Rafah, highlighting that capturing the crossing obstructs humanitarian aid. The Israeli offensive began on May 6 in Rafah, home to 1.5 million displaced Palestinians, with around half a million fleeing since.
3️⃣ 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Putin appoints new defence minister amidst assault on Kharkiv: Since starting his fifth term, Putin has launched an offensive in northern Ukraine and shuffled his cabinet, which has included the appointment of Andrei Belousov—an economist with no military background—as Russia's new defence minister, signalling a shift in the Kremlin’s strategy amid the conflict in Ukraine. Analysts believe Putin seeks to ensure efficient defence budget use, as Russia's military spending nears Cold War levels at 6.7% of GDP. Economist Sergei Guriev has noted that Putin relies on his generals and values economic efficiency, whilst Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasised the need for innovation in modern warfare.
4️⃣ 🇾🇪🇸🇦🇺🇳 Advanced peace talks in Yemen: Saudi Arabia aims to end its engagement in Yemen, and the US needs Saudi support to resolve the Gaza conflict. Washington has given Riyadh an informal green light to revive a peace deal with Yemen's Houthis, who have escalated Red Sea attacks, ostensibly in solidarity with Palestine. Despite US and UK efforts to target Houthi missile sites, attacks continue, reducing traffic to 40-50% of last year's levels. The UN peace roadmap includes compensating the Houthis and increasing resources for northern Yemen. Saudi impatience for a Yemen resolution aligns with the US's need for Saudi support in Gaza, potentially leading to a US-Saudi defence pact and normalised Saudi-Israeli relations, weakening Iran's influence. UK officials prefer a tougher stance, opposing a deal that benefits the Houthis. Saudi Arabia has struggled in Yemen since the Houthis captured Sana’a in 2016, pushing Saudi-backed forces to Aden.
5️⃣ 🇵🇰 Islamabad grant and Pakistan protests: Islamabad announced a grant of tens of millions of dollars in urgent economic relief for Pakistan-controlled Kashmir following a weekend of violent protests over inflation and local service demands. Journalist Jalaluddin Mughal stated the protests also reflect a struggle for control over regional resources. Despite this, violence persists as locals torched a paramilitary vehicle attempting to reach Muzaffarabad. Paramilitary troops then fired at demonstrators, injuring several and killing at least three. Pakistan recognizes Kashmir as disputed and expects a plebiscite per UN resolutions. India ended Kashmir's autonomous status in 2019, causing diplomatic tensions with Pakistan. Pakistan utilises Kashmir’s rivers for agriculture and electricity.
🇲🇲 Rohingya forcibly conscripted in Myanmar, while rebels make significant gains
Myanmar once again descended into crisis in February 2021, when Senior General Min Aung Hlaing overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government and re-established a military junta, triggering mass protests that escalated into an armed uprising due to the military's harsh crackdown. The conflict has intensified since October last year, with ethnic armed groups and anti-coup fighters launching significant offensives in northern Shan and western Rakhine states. These forces have captured numerous junta outposts and several strategic towns near the Chinese border.
According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, close to 5,000 individuals have lost their lives due to military actions since the coup. Over 20,000 people have been imprisoned, and Aung San Suu Kyi is currently serving a cumulative 27-year sentence following a clandestine trial in a military court.
Since January, the Arakan Army (AA)—one of Myanmar's most powerful armed groups, predominantly composed of Rakhine ethnic fighters—has made significant advances across Rakhine State, driving out junta forces from cities and military bases.
In the northern part of Rakhine, AA has become entangled in a complex three-way conflict involving Rohingya Muslims, as well as junta forces. The military junta's desperation to retain power is evident in their efforts to coerce and entice some Rohingya to support their cause, despite the fact that this ethnic group has suffered ethnic cleansing and acts of genocide at the hands of General Min Aung Hlaing’s military since 2016.
While AA aims to establish an autonomous region for all communities, some of its recent actions have alienated the Rohingya. This has introduced a dangerous communal aspect to the conflict, risking a devastating war between Buddhist Rakhine and Muslim Rohingya.
The humanitarian impact in Myanmar has been severe, with over 3 million people now displaced by conflict—a figure the United Nations has called a "bleak milestone." The UN reported that the number of displaced individuals has surged by 50% in the past six months due to escalating clashes between the military and armed groups opposing the coup leaders who seized power in February 2021.
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Other News
🇮🇷 Low voter turnout in Iran: Iran's conservative establishment lauds an "epic" turnout in parliamentary runoffs, despite low participation nationwide. Critics caution about declining faith in elections, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has stressed voting as a "national duty," essential for progress. Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi has praised voters on social media despite the poor turnout.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Washington announces 100% tariff on Chinese made automobiles: China vows retaliation as US President Joe Biden has escalated tariffs on Chinese solar panels and steel, to safeguard American jobs. Biden has also imposed a 100% border tax on Chinese electric cars in a move that analysts view as symbolic, aimed at securing votes from the China-securitisation hawks in advance of US elections. The US and China have been engaged in a trade war since 2018, after President Trump's tariffs on goods imported from China.
🇺🇦🇺🇸 Blinken visits Ukraine: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv for the first time since President Biden's major US aid package was approved. Arriving from Poland by train, Blinken met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and affirmed ongoing US support for Ukraine, while Russian forces reportedly captured Buhruvatka in northern Kharkiv, although independent verification is lacking. Zelenskiy emphasised the aid's importance and appealed for additional air defence systems to protect Kharkiv from Russian attacks.
What Went Under the Radar?
🇨🇩🇸🇩🇵🇸🇲🇲 Violence causes record numbers in global displacement: Global conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have created a record 68 million internally displaced people (IDPs) worldwide. Gaza alone saw 3.4 million displacements, leading to 1.7 million IDPs by last year's end due to repeated forced movements. Sub-Saharan Africa witnessed a surge in IDPs, more than doubling from 16.5 million in 2018 to 34.8 million in 2023. The region experienced 19.5 million displacements, with Sudan accounting for 45% and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) the second-highest. Together, Sudan and the DRC comprised nearly half of the world's displacements last year.
Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones
1️⃣ 🇸🇸 South Sudan on the brink as oil exports are threatened by its northern neighbour’s civil war: South Sudan faces economic meltdown as the civil war in Sudan disrupts oil exports, depriving South Sudan of its main revenue source. Since its 2011 secession, South Sudan has heavily relied on Sudan for transporting oil to international markets via Port Sudan on the Red Sea. One of the pipelines, handling two-thirds of these exports, broke down in February and needs complex repairs amid ongoing conflict. Without immediate solutions, South Sudan's government will run out of money, the national currency will devalue, and food shortages will worsen, leading to renewed instability and conflict.
2️⃣ 🇺🇸🇸🇦🇮🇱 Washington to hold separate talks with Israel and Saudi Arabia: Jake Sullivan—White House national security adviser—is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia and Israel this weekend. In Israel, he'll discuss targeted strategies against Hamas militants with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, aiming to prevent exacerbating humanitarian conditions in Rafah. In Saudi Arabia, talks will cover various bilateral and regional issues, including the Gaza conflict, regional peace, and security. Additionally, efforts are underway to finalise security and civilian nuclear assistance agreements, as part of ongoing endeavours towards an Israel-Saudi normalisation deal.
Quote of the Week:
🗣️ "Politics have no relation to morals.” - Niccolo Machiavelli
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Written by Billy Robinson and Joe Foote.