There is never a dull week in geopolitics - and this week is no different.

Tensions with Russia continue to increase, Turkey is planning a military campaign and Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized an Israeli assault on Rafah.

Get the rundown below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇹🇷 Turkey: Planning a military campaign in northern Iraq this summer, Turkey aims to push back the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and secure a trade route for the Iraq Development Road Project, a 1,200km highway and railway connecting the Gulf to Turkey. The operations, necessitated by PKK attacks and the challenging mountainous terrain, target PKK strongholds to clear the way for this major infrastructure project, which promises significant economic benefits, including $4bn annual returns and 100,000 jobs. Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler discussed deploying forces deep into Iraq for these objectives, amid discussions with Baghdad for cooperation against the PKK threat.

2️⃣🇳🇱 Netherlands: Geert Wilders, leader of the anti-Islam Freedom Party (PVV), has stepped back from his ambition to become the Dutch Prime Minister despite last year's electoral victory, citing lack of full coalition support. Wilders' move comes amidst ongoing negotiations with the VVD, New Social Contract (NSC), and BBB parties, focusing on forming a right-wing government prioritizing reduced asylum and immigration, with a "Dutch people first" agenda. The formation talks, led by Kim Putters, hint at an "extra-parliamentary cabinet" model, potentially excluding party leaders from ministerial roles to empower parliament, reflecting a significant shift in Dutch political tradition.

3️⃣🇫🇷 France: French President Emmanuel Macron has maintained his stance that Western troops in Ukraine remain an option if Russia escalates, emphasizing the need for strength against Russian aggression. In recent talks, Macron highlighted the existential nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for Europe, noting the strategic importance of showing resolve. Amidst this, France, Germany, and Poland commit to bolstering Ukraine's defense capabilities, focusing on ammunition, artillery, and air defense, showcasing a unified front in supporting Ukraine against Russia's military actions.

4️⃣🌍 Africa: Major internet disruptions struck across Africa this week, impacting countries like South Africa, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Benin, Ghana, and Burkina Faso, with services now mostly restored in Liberia and South Africa. The outages, linked to damage to undersea cables along the West African coast, have caused significant inconvenience, especially for professionals reliant on the internet. The disruptions, possibly caused by natural seabed shifts or human activities, highlight the continent's vulnerability in global connectivity and the critical role of undersea cables.

5️⃣🇺🇸 USA: TikTok faces a potential ban in the US as a bill passed by the House of Representatives, demanding Chinese owner ByteDance to sell its US assets within six months or face prohibition, heads to the Senate. Garnering bipartisan support but facing an uncertain future, the bill reflects growing concerns over national security and data privacy tied to China. Amidst debates, TikTok, utilized by approximately 170 million Americans, criticizes the move as a total ban, advocating for a US-based data protection solution. The international and legal ramifications loom as discussions continue on Capitol Hill.

Major Story

Netanyahu Authorizes Rafah Assault While Pursuing Peace

In a pivotal moment that underscores the fragile balance between war and peace, Israel has taken decisive steps towards both a military operation in Rafah, Gaza, and the continuation of diplomatic efforts aimed at securing a ceasefire. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent authorization for an assault on Rafah—a city that has become a haven for more than half of Gaza's 2.3 million residents amid the ongoing conflict—signals Israel's resolve to confront Hamas. However, the simultaneous move to send a delegation to Qatar for talks hints at an underlying hope for a diplomatic resolution.

The tension between military action and diplomatic negotiation reflects the complex landscape of the Israeli-Hamas conflict, which has tragically claimed over 31,000 Palestinian lives according to figures from the region, while also deeply affecting Israeli communities. Netanyahu's rejection of Hamas' "unrealistic" hostage demands coupled with continued dialogue via mediators reflects a nuanced strategy balancing firmness and pragmatism in navigating the crisis.

The international community watches closely, with voices from Washington to the United Nations calling for careful consideration of civilian safety and the urgent need for humanitarian relief. The arrival of the Open Arms ship, carrying much-needed aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, marks a critical juncture in addressing the dire humanitarian situation. Yet, incidents like the tragic event near Gaza City, where over 20 people were reportedly killed while queuing for aid, highlight the devastating human toll of the conflict and the complexities of providing assistance in such a volatile environment.

As the situation unfolds, the global community's role in mediating and providing humanitarian support becomes increasingly crucial. The delicate dance between military strategy and diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire reflects the broader challenges of achieving lasting peace in the region. With the world's eyes on Rafah and the broader Gaza Strip, the coming days may prove pivotal in determining the course of the conflict and the fate of countless lives caught in the balance.

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Other News

1️⃣🇺🇦🇷🇺 A Russian missile attack in Odesa, Ukraine, has resulted in at least 20 fatalities and over 75 injuries, marking the deadliest assault on a civilian area in recent weeks. Launched from Crimea, two Iskander-M missiles targeted a residential sector, disrupting utilities for some residents. President Zelenskiy vowed a "fair response" against what he described as a "vile" act, while local efforts to donate blood saw significant turnout. In response to the ongoing assaults, Ukraine has intensified its retaliatory strikes, including a drone attack on a Russian refinery.

2️⃣🇷🇺 Russia: President Vladimir Putin has announced the deployment of troops and "systems of destruction" to the Finnish border in response to Finland and Sweden's NATO membership, deeming it a "meaningless step." Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have also escalated their military actions, with Ukraine attacking Russian oil refineries and Russia conducting drone and bomb attacks in Ukraine, killing at least two. Putin also claims Russia's nuclear capabilities surpass those of the United States, amid warnings from Russia about the potential for the conflict to expand geographically due to NATO's actions.

3️⃣🇮🇳 India: The Indian Navy has triumphed over Somali pirates, rescuing 17 crew members from the Maltese-flagged cargo vessel Ruen. Armed with special commandos, the navy forced the surrender of all 35 pirates on board, ensuring the vessel was clear of illegal arms and potentially halting a spree of piracy not seen since 2017. This operation marks a significant victory in the ongoing battle against piracy in critical global waterways, showcasing India's commitment to maritime security amidst a recent uptick in pirate activity.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇬🇾 Guyana: ExxonMobil has struck oil again off the coast of Guyana in South America, with its latest find named Bluefin in the Stabroek block. This area, a hotspot for recent major oil discoveries, now boasts over 30 finds since 2015. Bluefin, with 197 feet of oil-bearing sandstone, further cements Guyana's rising status in the oil world, with production expected to reach 1.2 million barrels a day by 2027, matching OPEC member Angola. Exxon, holding a 45% stake and leading operations, alongside partners Hess Corp. and Cnooc Ltd., also made moves to secure their interests against Chevron Corp’s planned acquisition in the region.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🇸🇰 The first round of the 2024 Slovak presidential election is set for March 23. Candidates include Peter Pellegrini (Hlas), independents Ivan Korčok and Štefan Harabin, Igor Matovič (Slovakia), Ján Kubiš (independent), Andrej Danko (SNS), Marian Kotleba (ĽSNS), Patrik Dubovský (independent), and Krisztián Forró (Alliance). Incumbent President Zuzana Čaputová will not seek re-election. If no candidate secures a majority, a second round will be held on April 6.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "In the intricate dance of global power, every step forward by one nation marks a potential challenge to another; the world's stage is set not by the harmony of nations, but by their strategic dissonances." - Jordan Maxwell

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