We told you last week was a “comparatively quieter” week in geopolitics - well this week seems to be a return to the “mean” of the 2024 madness.

Here it is ⬇️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇪🇺🇨🇦 European nations and Canada have significantly increased their defense spending, collectively adding $600 billion over the past decade, amid NATO's efforts to meet a 2% expenditure target. This surge in spending, despite some members still not meeting the target, is seen as a commitment to bolster defense in response to Donald Trump's criticisms and growing security concerns, especially following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. NATO's chief, Jens Stoltenberg, emphasized the alliance's readiness to defend its members, countering Trump's controversial statements about withholding protection from countries not meeting spending commitments, while highlighting the collective defense enhancements and the strategic importance of unity against potential aggressors.

2️⃣🇷🇺 Russia has claimed full control of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, a significant victory since intensifying efforts to seize the industrial hub last October. This announcement came hours after Ukraine, citing a strategic decision to save soldiers' lives amidst ammunition shortages and overwhelming Russian forces, confirmed its withdrawal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the move was to prevent encirclement and not a sign of defeat. The US's delayed military aid has added to Ukraine's challenges, with President Biden expressing confidence in securing funds despite congressional inaction. The battle for Avdiivka, akin to the intense conflict in Bakhmut, underscores the high cost of the nearly two-year war, leaving the city largely destroyed and its population decimated.

3️⃣🇦🇺 Australia's parliament has passed a motion urging the US and UK to release Julian Assange before his final extradition hearing in the UK High Court. With a vote of 86-42, the motion reflects significant domestic support for Assange, who faces espionage charges in the US with a potential 175-year sentence. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has actively sought a resolution to Assange's prolonged legal battle since taking office, even discussing the matter with US President Joe Biden. Assange, known for WikiLeaks' publication of classified documents, argues the charges are politically motivated. A UK judge initially blocked his extradition due to mental health concerns, but the decision was overturned, leading to a renewed legal challenge against his extradition approved by then Home Secretary Priti Patel. Assange's case continues to stir international debate over press freedom, legal rights, and diplomatic relations.

4️⃣🇬🇧 The UK economy has officially slipped into recession, marked by a 0.3% GDP contraction in the last quarter following a 0.1% decrease in the previous three months. This downturn, triggered by high inflation, expensive energy bills, and adverse weather affecting consumer spending and production, is expected to be brief and mild. However, it poses challenges for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party's economic growth pledge. The Bank of England might lower interest rates to alleviate borrowing costs, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt emphasizes efforts to combat inflation and boost growth. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer criticizes the government's economic management, advocating for change.

5️⃣🇭🇺 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that Hungary's parliament is expected to ratify Sweden's NATO membership in its upcoming session this February, marking the potential end of Hungary being the only NATO member yet to approve Stockholm's bid. The move follows efforts to rebuild trust between Hungary and Sweden, despite previous tensions over allegations by Sweden regarding Hungary's democratic practices. This development comes after Turkey, the other NATO member that had delayed its approval, ratified Sweden's membership last month. Ratification by Hungary would remove the last hurdle for Sweden, which has sought NATO membership in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, signaling a significant shift in its defense policy.

Major Story

Alexei Navalny, a prominent critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has died in a penal colony in the Arctic Circle, according to the Russian prison service. Navalny was serving a 19-year sentence on extremism charges, which have been widely viewed as politically motivated. The prison service reported that Navalny felt unwell after a walk and lost consciousness almost immediately. Despite efforts to resuscitate him, he was declared dead, and the cause of death is currently under investigation.

Following the announcement of his death, there were reports of Muscovites laying flowers at a monument to victims of political repression, despite official warnings against such gatherings. Several detentions were made in Moscow and other cities across Russia.

Internationally, Navalny's death has been met with a mix of shock and condemnation. Various global leaders have expressed their concerns and called for accountability. U.S. President Joe Biden suggested that if the reports of Navalny's death are true, Putin bears responsibility.

Navalny, who had previously survived a poisoning attempt with a nerve agent in 2020, was known for his anti-corruption campaigns and efforts to mobilize opposition against the current Russian government. The precise circumstances of his death remain the subject of intense speculation and concern both in Russia and internationally.

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Other News

1️⃣🇻🇪 Venezuela ordered the suspension of the United Nations human rights office within its borders and gave its staff 72 hours to exit the country on Thursday. This drastic step comes after the UN agency voiced "deep concern" over the detention of notable rights activist Rocio San Miguel, urging her immediate release. Venezuelan Foreign Affairs Minister Yvan Gil criticized the UN rights office for adopting what he termed an "inappropriate role," accusing it of acting as a legal advocate for those conspiring against Venezuela. This suspension is said to remain until the UN agency publicly corrects its stance, which Venezuela deems colonialist and abusive. The UN human rights office, operational in Venezuela since 2019, faces a 30-day review of its technical cooperation terms with the country, amid escalating tensions and international concern over Venezuela's crackdown on dissent and the political opposition.

2️⃣🇺🇲 Former President Donald Trump has been hit with a substantial legal and financial blow, being found liable for nearly $355 million in fines after a fraud trial in New York. Justice Arthur Engoron's ruling also includes a three-year ban on Trump conducting business in New York, delivering a significant impact on his business operations in the state. The fines extend to Trump's sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, and former CFO Allen Weisselberg, with potential interest pushing the total owed by Trump to over $463.9 million. The decision, which Trump is likely to appeal, challenges his financial liquidity and could necessitate asset liquidation to cover the penalties. Additionally, while a permanent dissolution of Trump's New York businesses was not ordered, they will be under stringent oversight, and an independent monitor will ensure compliance with financial reporting standards.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇸🇴🇪🇹 Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has accused Ethiopia of attempting to annex Somalia's territory through a sea access agreement with Somaliland, raising sovereignty and annexation concerns. Tensions escalated as Mohamud reported Ethiopian security efforts to obstruct his attendance at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia and Somaliland's deal, granting Ethiopia a 50-year lease for naval base access at Berbera port, is seen by Somalia as a violation of its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🔷 The G20 foreign ministers’ meeting is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil from 21-23 Feb. The focus of the discussions is expected to be on the ongoing Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflict and their impacts on global dynamics.

2️⃣🇺🇦🇷🇺 The 24th of February 2024 marks the second anniversary of the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a significant and somber milestone that reflects on the continued conflict and its effects on the region and beyond.

3️⃣🇧🇾 Belarus is set to hold elections for its parliament and local councils at various levels on 25 Feb 2024. This will be Belarus’s first-ever single voting day, a significant event following updates to the country’s constitution.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity." – Sun Tzu

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

As we settle into the rhythm of our newsletter, we're looking to evolve based on what you want to read most. We welcome your news tips and suggestions, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]