Wow, another pretty intense week in the world of geopolitics! 😬

Things in the Middle East are looking more dicey than they did before, and Europe appears to be gearing up for a future conflict. 

That said, we won’t keep you any longer. Strap in, and read about another wild week below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇬🇧 UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps called 2024 a "crucial turning point" for British defence, urging increased spending to face multiple potential threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. He announced and affirmed Britain's commitment to a major NATO exercise and recent Yemen strikes, showcasing the UK's global engagement and readiness to "step up" when needed.

2️⃣🇵🇰🇮🇷 Pakistan and Iran have restored diplomatic ties and agreed to return ambassadors to each other's capitals, after exchanging missile and drone strikes on militant bases near their shared border. The strikes came amid escalating tensions following attacks by separatist groups in Pakistan's Balochistan province and Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. Both countries say they are ready to cooperate on border security issues and de-escalate the situation.

3️⃣🇩🇪 Germany is debating whether to ban the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party after reports senior figures attended a meeting where mass deportations were discussed, sparking large protests and condemnation from leaders. The AfD denies wrongdoing and is distancing itself from the scandal, saying the meeting was private not secret, but it has fired a top official involved and polls show rising public alarm over the party's strength. A ban is legally complicated and politically risky, but officials say all options are on the table to defend democracy from extremist threats.

4️⃣🇺🇸 President Biden said U.S. strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen have not deterred their attacks in the Red Sea, after the militants launched a new missile strike on a U.S.-owned ship. The latest attack came after Biden authorized a fifth round of U.S. strikes in Yemen on Thursday targeting Houthi missiles and capabilities, though he acknowledged the strikes have not stopped the rebels' campaign. The Houthis vowed to continue confronting the U.S., Israel and U.K. which they accuse of aggression and encroaching on Yemen's sovereignty.

5️⃣🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Navy Seals intercepted a boat carrying Iranian-made missiles and weapons to Yemen's Houthi rebels on January 11, 2024, amidst efforts to curb Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. The operation, which resulted in two commandos going missing, underscored escalating tensions and Tehran's involvement in arming the Houthis, as evidenced by the seized missile and drone components. This incident, reported on January 16, 2024, raises concerns about the widening scope of the conflict.

Major Story

In a stark warning that resonates through the corridors of power and across NATO member countries, a top NATO official has sounded the alarm: civilians and governments alike must prepare for the possibility of all-out war with Russia within the next two decades. This call to readiness, articulated by Admiral Rob Bauer, underscores an uncomfortable truth: the era of assumed peace is potentially coming to an end, and the specter of a major conflict looms large over the global landscape. Sweden's recent nationwide mobilization efforts, spurred by the announcement of its NATO membership bid, exemplify the kind of societal and military preparedness being urged.

The backdrop to this dire warning is the commencement of NATO's largest military exercise since the Cold War, Steadfast Defender 2024, involving over 90,000 troops. Aimed explicitly at preparing for a potential Russian invasion, this massive show of force highlights the growing tensions and the urgent need for readiness that extends beyond the military to include the industrial and civilian sectors. The West's struggle to replenish military stockpiles, drained by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, further amplifies the call for a comprehensive strategic overhaul.

Of course, this message was also given in the same week as Grant Shapps’ stark warning that the “era of the peace dividend is over”. With the tone taken this week in some NATO countries, it certainly seems as though something big looms large on the horizon.

Promotion

Again, we’re recommending Tim Marshall's "Prisoners of Geography" as a foundational book for anyone looking to acquire an understanding of geopolitics.

You can get the book here (affiliate):

🇺🇸 Link

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Other News

1️⃣🇬🇧 The UK Ministry of Defence has successfully tested a new laser weapon called DragonFire, which uses a powerful beam of light to shoot down drones. During trials in Scotland, DragonFire was able to destroy incoming drones from miles away. The laser weapon is very accurate, fast, and costs less than £10 per shot. The UK hopes to transition DragonFire to the battlefield soon as part of its future air defence capabilities.

2️⃣🇨🇳 Attacks by Houthi rebels on shipping in the Red Sea are disrupting exports from China to Europe and Africa, driving up costs and delays for Chinese manufacturers and exporters and threatening the viability of some small companies. The disruptions to the key East-West trade route are forcing some exporters to turn to alternative routes which add weeks to transit times, while others are postponing or cancelling shipments as freight rates surge. China's export-reliant economy faces further headwinds from supply chain disruptions and slowing external demand. 

3️⃣🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected a U.S. proposal to resume nuclear arms control talks, arguing it's impossible while Washington continues supporting Ukraine against Russia's war. Lavrov called the proposal unacceptable and indecent, claiming the U.S. just wants to reestablish inspections of Russia's nuclear sites while encouraging Ukraine's attacks. He warned the West's escalation of the Ukraine crisis is raising new strategic nuclear risks resembling the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

4️⃣🇮🇷 Iran has released one Greek crew member from the oil tanker St. Nikolas, seized in the Gulf of Oman, while 18 Filipinos are still detained near Bandar Abbas. The seizure, according to Iran, was in retaliation for the "theft" of its oil last year, a move condemned by the U.S. as unlawful. Negotiations for the release of the remaining crew, who are reported in good health, are ongoing, with Greece's ambassador escorting the freed individual home.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇲🇲 Radio Free Asia is reporting that over 50,000 residents, nearly half the population of Paletwa township in Myanmar's Chin state, have been displaced over recent months due to intensified clashes between the military and the Arakan Army. The conflict has led to urgent calls for aid, as those displaced require food, shelter, and medical supplies, with some fleeing to India's Mizoram for assistance. Amidst this turmoil, military airstrikes and artillery attacks have reportedly killed 81 civilians and injured about 260 in Paletwa and parts of Rakhine state within a month.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🇫🇮 Finland will hold a presidential election on 28 January, with a potential runoff on 11 February if no candidate wins a majority in the first round. Incumbent President Sauli Niinisto is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.

Quote of the Week:

🗣️ "In the face of turbulent seas, the bold set sail." – [Original Quote]

We felt this quote pertinent given the ongoing events in the Red Sea. Times seem set to only become more turbulent.

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

As we settle into the rhythm of our newsletter, we're looking to evolve based on what you want to read most. We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

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