- Geopolitics Weekly
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- 📰 NATO scrambles jets
📰 NATO scrambles jets
and Syria Saudi deals
Hello,
This week a Hong Kong court sentenced media founder Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison under national security charges as he denies wrongdoing and authorities maintain the case is not linked to press freedom.
Meanwhile, US forces seized another tanker accused of breaching sanctions and Norway’s defence chief warned a limited Russian move to secure northern nuclear assets cannot be ruled out.
This, and more, below ⤵️
Top 5 Stories
1️⃣ 🇭🇰🇨🇳 Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai sentenced to 20 years under national security law: A Hong Kong court jailed the 78-year-old Apple Daily founder for foreign collusion and seditious publication offences, concluding a nearly five-year legal case, with the court stating his role as a “mastermind” increased the penalty. He denies the charges and calls himself a political prisoner, while family cite health concerns, international figures and rights groups criticised the ruling, and authorities insist the case is unrelated to press freedom.
2️⃣ 🇺🇸 US seizes tanker in Indian Ocean after tracking from Caribbean blockade: US forces boarded and seized the Aquila II, with the Pentagon saying the vessel had defied a quarantine on sanctioned ships in the Caribbean and was followed across regions before the operation occurred without incident. It is the eighth tanker taken since the blockade began in December, though officials say seizures represent only a small share of sanctioned “dark fleet” vessels operating globally.
3️⃣ 🇳🇴🇷🇺 Norway defence chief warns Russia could invade to protect northern nuclear assets: In an exclusive interview with The Guardian, General Eirik Kristoffersen said Oslo cannot rule out a limited Russian move to secure nuclear capabilities near the Kola Peninsula, though he noted Moscow lacks conquest ambitions in Norway comparable to Ukraine. He also rejected claims allied troops avoided frontline roles in Afghanistan, described ongoing limited cooperation with Russia in the Arctic, and said some airspace incidents may stem from misunderstandings.
4️⃣ 🇰🇵 Kim Jong Un’s daughter may be named successor, intelligence says: South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers the teenage daughter, believed to be Kim Ju Ae, is in the stage of being internally appointed as heir and could be confirmed at a party congress expected later this month. Officials say her rising public role and presence at events suggest growing status, though analysts differ on how any succession signal might be communicated and no formal announcement has been made.
5️⃣ 🇵🇱🇷🇺 NATO jets scrambled as Russia launches missile and drone strikes on Ukraine: Polish authorities closed sections of airspace and scrambled aircraft as missiles and drones were directed at western Ukraine, with attacks reported on multiple power plants and infrastructure sites across several regions. Ukraine’s grid operator confirmed emergency outages amid strain on the system, while reports of explosions and damage came from various cities.
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Major Story
🇺🇸🇺🇦 Ukraine seeks security guarantees
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine wants a legally binding US security guarantee lasting at least 20 years before agreeing to a peace deal, stating that Washington has so far offered a 15-year arrangement.
He also called for a clear timetable for Ukraine’s EU membership, with some officials suggesting entry could come as early as 2027, and said upcoming talks with Russia and the US should be substantive despite concerns the sides are discussing different priorities.
Zelenskyy said the US had suggested peace could come quickly if Ukraine withdrew from the Donbas, but he rejected the idea, while noting that details of a proposed US plan involving access to Ukrainian mineral resources had not yet been shared.
He added that elections pressed for by the US could only be held two months after a ceasefire for security reasons, criticised Europe’s limited role in negotiations, and said Russian attacks had damaged all of Ukraine’s energy plants, while European leaders remained uncertain about the chances of a diplomatic breakthrough.
Other News
1️⃣ 🇯🇵 Sanae Takaichi’s coalition secures landslide election victory in Japan: The Liberal Democratic party won 316 seats and, with its coalition partner securing 36, gained a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house, strengthening the newly installed prime minister’s mandate and enabling her to override the upper chamber. The result followed a snap election she pledged to resign over if defeated, as concerns persist over public finances, stimulus plans, tax cuts, and tensions with China.
2️⃣ 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US accuses China of secret nuclear testing as arms pact expires: Washington said Beijing conducted a concealed yield-producing nuclear test in 2020 and used methods to obscure detection, while China rejected the claims and said it acts responsibly on nuclear issues. The dispute comes after the last US-Russia arms treaty expired, leaving no binding limits for the first time since 2010 as the US calls for a broader deal including China, which has declined to join talks.
3️⃣ 🇺🇸🇨🇦 US House backs bid to block Canada tariffs in bipartisan vote: Lawmakers passed a resolution to rescind tariffs imposed under a national emergency declaration, with several Republicans joining Democrats despite presidential warnings of political consequences. The measure is largely symbolic and still requires Senate approval and the president’s signature, as disagreements continue over trade policy, drug flow concerns and economic impacts.
4️⃣ 🇸🇾🇸🇦 Syria and Saudi Arabia sign multibillion-dollar investment deals: Damascus announced agreements across aviation, energy, real estate and telecommunications backed by Saudi investors, including a $2bn commitment through the Elaf fund to develop two airports in Aleppo and launch a joint low-cost airline. The projects mark the largest investment since US sanctions were lifted and aim to support reconstruction, though analysts say the deals are as much a political signal as an immediate economic shift.
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