Yet again events in the Middle East continue to heat up as we move into the second month of what already seems to be a pivotal year in world geopolitics.

Let’s get straight into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇸🇻 In El Salvador President Nayib Bukele is anticipated to secure a resounding re-election victory, buoyed by his aggressive anti-gang policies that drastically reduced crime rates. Despite concerns from some over his authoritarian tendencies and constitutional controversies surrounding his eligibility for a second term, Bukele's popularity remains high, with approximately 80% of Salvadorans backing him. His tenure has faced economic challenges, including sluggish growth and rising poverty, casting shadows over ambitious projects like Bitcoin City.

2️⃣🇬🇧🇵🇸 During a visit to Lebanon, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron indicated that the UK might recognise a Palestinian state before an Israel peace deal is finalized, aiming to support Palestinian aspirations for statehood amidst ongoing negotiations. He stressed the importance of a Gaza ceasefire and Hamas' departure for a two-state solution, while proposing UK assistance to de-escalate Lebanon-Israel border tensions. 

3️⃣🇺🇦 Ukrainian attack drones hit Russia's largest oil refinery in Volgograd, marking a continuation of Kyiv's strategy to target Russian infrastructure supporting the war effort. Despite rarely acknowledging such operations, a Kyiv source claims the strike disrupted the refinery's primary processing unit, potentially reducing its production capacity. This action reflects Ukraine's ongoing efforts to counterbalance Russia's advanced military capabilities by innovating in drone technology for long-range strikes.

4️⃣🇨🇳 China's navy has initiated escort operations for Chinese cargo ships navigating the Red Sea amid increased Houthi rebel attacks, impacting global trade routes. In response to the threat, which has led many shipping companies to reroute at significant cost, Sea Legend Shipping has maintained its Red Sea operations under Chinese naval protection since January. The situation, compounded by attacks on ships including those carrying Russian fuel, raises concerns over maritime security and international trade, with global powers like the U.S. and China taking divergent approaches to safeguarding vital shipping lanes.

5️⃣🇬🇧 Northern Ireland: In a historic turn, Michelle O'Neill of Sinn Fein becomes the first Irish nationalist appointed as First Minister, signaling a shift in power dynamics within the region. This appointment follows a landmark 2022 election and concludes a two-year political stalemate, re-establishing the power-sharing government. Amidst international attention and calls for progress on everyday governance, the move reflects Sinn Fein's rising influence and the changing political landscape.

Major Story

Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the United States and the United Kingdom jointly targeted Houthi forces in Yemen on Saturday, aiming to curb Iran-backed aggression following a drone strike in Jordan that killed three US troops. This operation, involving precision strikes from ships, fighter jets, and missiles, underscores a united stance against threats to international shipping and security in the Red Sea.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated the strikes were a clear message to the Houthis to halt their unlawful assaults on navigation and naval vessels. This latest military effort marks the third large-scale Anglo-American operation against the Houthi threat, reflecting the persistent challenge of Houthi missile and drone attacks on global maritime routes.

Despite the military actions, Houthi officials remain defiant, vowing to continue their operations. The Biden administration suggests these strikes may not be the last, indicating a broader strategy to hold Iran accountable for its support of regional militias. The operation, supported by a coalition including Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, and New Zealand, targeted Houthi weapons storage, missile systems, and drone capabilities to protect the critical maritime corridor of the Red Sea.

Other News

1️⃣🇪🇹 Ethiopia's parliament has extended a state of emergency in the Amhara region by four months amid ongoing insurgency and accusations of human rights abuses. Initiated in August to combat the Fano militia, the government has utilized the emergency to enforce curfews and ban public gatherings. Despite pushing the militia from cities, conflicts persist in rural areas. This extension follows less than a year after a peace deal ended a civil war in the neighboring Tigray region, highlighting strained relations and unaddressed security concerns. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission reports significant civilian harm, intensifying concerns over the extension's impact on human rights and humanitarian conditions.

2️⃣🇳🇦 Namibia mourns the loss of President Hage Geingob, who passed away at 82 after a recent cancer diagnosis. Leading the country since 2015 and previously serving as its first Prime Minister post-independence in 1990, Geingob was a pivotal figure in Namibia's political landscape. Geingob's legacy includes navigating Namibia through challenges of governance, economy, and social equity.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇱🇰🇹🇭 Sri Lanka has inked a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Thailand as part of efforts to revitalize its economy following a severe financial downturn, with the World Bank noting a 3.8% contraction last year. The agreement, signed during a visit by Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, encompasses trade in goods, investment, customs procedures, and intellectual property rights, aiming to bolster market opportunities for both nations. This FTA comes as Sri Lanka seeks to rebound from its worst financial crisis in decades, enhancing bilateral trade that stood at $460 million in 2021, focusing on sectors including tea, precious stones, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: President Ilham Aliyev has called for presidential elections to be held a year ahead of schedule. Having led the country since 2003 in an environment with no term limits and minimal transparency, Aliyev's continued hold on power appears virtually assured. This move further consolidates his control amidst a political climate marked by his dominant influence.

2️⃣🇵🇰 Pakistan: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place, although there may be potential delays due to limited institutional capacity. These elections, set for early 2024, could be marked by allegations of vote rigging and electoral manipulation. Additionally, provincial assembly elections in Sindh, Balochistan, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are set to coincide with the general elections.

Quote of the Week:

"Geopolitics is a complex chessboard, where nations make strategic moves to safeguard their interests and navigate the turbulent currents of international affairs" - Horace Greeley. 

Stating the obvious really, but appropriate for this week nonetheless 🙎

Tips & Suggestions

Before we see you next Sunday:

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