Hello and welcome back.

This week’s key developments include President Zelenskyy’s claim that Chinese mercenaries are fighting alongside Russian forces, prompting Beijing to warn against what it called “irresponsible remarks.” In Ethiopia, the Amhara insurgency continues to intensify amid deepening political unrest. Meanwhile, our lead story examines the precarious diplomatic efforts to bring an end to Sudan’s devastating civil war as it enters its third year.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Trump meets Netanyahu at White House, announces direct talks with Iran for this weekend: President Trump announced direct U.S.-Iran nuclear talks for April 12, surprising Tehran and Tel Aviv, with Iran yet to confirm participation. At a joint press conference, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed concern over renewed U.S.-Iran engagement without guarantees on Iran’s regional actions. Tensions also rose over Trump’s refusal to lift 17% tariffs on Israeli goods, despite reciprocal moves from Israel, with estimates of $2.3 billion in annual losses. Netanyahu, facing widespread domestic backlash and corruption charges, defended Gaza emigration plans and a proposed “Morag Corridor,” even as his forces face criticism for killing aid workers and a Palestinian-American teen.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump issues pause on tariffs, China escalates counter tariffs on U.S. goods from 34% to 84%: President Trump unexpectedly paused new tariffs on all countries except China—who increased levies to 84%, responding to Trump's duties that included 104% on some Chinese goods—announcing a 90-day halt via social media just days after initiating sweeping trade measures. The reversal followed steep market losses and growing backlash from global partners, including retaliatory tariffs from China and the EU. While Trump maintained a tough stance on China—raising tariffs to 125%—he softened his approach toward others, calling for calm and hinting at future negotiations. His remarks contradicted earlier White House statements, revealing limits to how much political and economic turmoil the administration is prepared to endure.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 German chancellor Merz forms coalition: Germany’s conservative CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, and the centre-left SPD finalised a coalition agreement just 45 days after snap elections, clearing the path for Merz to become chancellor in May. The swift deal comes amid mounting pressure to address Trump’s tariff-driven trade war and Russian aggression, with Merz pledging military investment and economic reforms to safeguard Germany’s role in Europe. The coalition agreed to corporate tax cuts, reduced energy levies, and stricter border controls to curb irregular migration, though it stopped short of the hard-right demands pushed by Merz’s rivals. While the accord strengthens Germany’s global stance, Merz faces domestic backlash from within his party and a surging far-right opposition, even as he asserts Germany is “back on track” and ready to lead.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar’s junta exploits crisis, undermines ceasefire efforts: Following the devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake on March 28, Myanmar’s opposition groups swiftly paused hostilities to enable aid access. The National Unity Government and the Three Brotherhood Alliance both declared ceasefires. But the military continued attacks, launching airstrikes just hours after the quake struck. Under mounting international pressure, it reluctantly announced a ceasefire on April 2—only to resume operations in Kachin the next day. This fits a long pattern: Myanmar’s junta has a history of manipulating crises for political gain. In 2008, it held a rigged referendum days after Cyclone Nargis. Now, the military may use the quake as cover to push for sham elections in December, aiming to rehabilitate its image while continuing to crush opposition.

5️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇲🇱 Sahel alliance recalls ambassadors from Algeria after Malian drone incident: The military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—have withdrawn their ambassadors from Algeria following the downing of a Malian drone near the shared border. AES condemned Algeria’s actions as a violation of international law and accused it of jeopardising long-standing ties. Mali rejected claims that the drone entered Algerian airspace and accused Algiers of backing terrorism. While Algeria has voiced concern over Mali’s use of drones and Russian mercenaries near its frontier, analysts say this latest diplomatic rift is unlikely to escalate militarily.

Major Story

🇸🇩 CAN DIPLOMACY HALT SUDAN’S SLIDE TOWARD FRAGMENTATION?

Two years into Sudan’s civil war, the Sudanese army has regained Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a major shift in the conflict. The RSF, which had controlled the capital since 2023, is now retreating westward, but shows no intention of conceding. Rather than leveraging its victory to pursue peace, the army is pushing west to consolidate power, while the RSF expands offensives into new areas, forming alliances with long-time rebels like SPLM-North. These moves risk further fracturing the country and igniting wider regional instability in Chad and South Sudan.

Regional Rivalries and Foreign Fuelling

The war’s trajectory is shaped not only by internal dynamics but by competing regional agendas. The army is supported by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, while the RSF relies heavily on backing from the UAE. Both factions receive advanced weaponry, including drones, from foreign patrons. Without coordinated external pressure to de-escalate, the conflict may spiral into a multi-front proxy war—destabilising a Red Sea region already strained by conflict in Yemen and unrest in Ethiopia and South Sudan.

Paths to De-escalation

Peace will require concerted regional and international diplomacy. Cairo and Riyadh must press Sudanese army chief Burhan to pivot from military escalation to negotiation. Simultaneously, Abu Dhabi should engage in direct talks with the army to reduce RSF dependence and open space for ceasefire talks. Egypt and the African Union must also advance dialogue with civilian groups to chart a viable postwar future. A unified national government remains the only route to reunification.

Global Stakes

The West, particularly the U.S. and UK, must re-engage. Washington’s leverage with Gulf allies remains critical, and London’s upcoming conference on Sudan could galvanise broader coordination. Without urgent diplomatic alignment, Sudan risks irreversible fragmentation—and its neighbours, deeper instability.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Senate confirms Huckabee as ambassador to Israel, CIA chief Ratcliffe holds talks with Netanyahu in Jerusalem: The U.S. Senate has confirmed Mike Huckabee, a far-right evangelical and staunch advocate of Israeli settlement expansion, as the next ambassador to Israel. Huckabee’s appointment, supported by nearly all Republicans and only one Democrat, comes amid intensified Israeli military operations and land seizures in Gaza, fully backed by President Trump. In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with CIA Director John Ratcliffe following Netanyahu’s recent Washington visit. Meanwhile, scores of civilians were killed after Israeli airstrikes targeted Shujaiya, where over 30 were killed on the same day, including eight children.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 Amhara insurgency escalates amid Ethiopia’s political turmoil: Ethiopia is grappling with a growing civil conflict between federal forces and Fano militias in the Amhara region, following the fragile peace from the Tigray war. Rooted in unresolved grievances over political marginalisation, disarmament, and perceived inequities in federal power, the Amhara uprising has rapidly evolved from scattered clashes in April 2023 to a full-scale insurgency. Despite a declared ceasefire in Tigray, the exclusion of Amhara from peace talks and controversial reforms like dismantling regional special forces have deepened distrust. The government’s heavy-handed response—military campaigns and a state of emergency—has failed to quell unrest, while its piecemeal peace overtures lack credibility. A sustainable solution requires inclusive dialogue, release of political prisoners, and structural reforms that ensure equitable representation and address long-standing territorial disputes, according to regional analysts.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Chinese mercenaries fighting for Russia says Zelenskyy, Beijing warns against ‘irresponsible remarks’: China issued a warning on Thursday urging parties involved in the Ukraine conflict to avoid making “irresponsible comments,” following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claim that Beijing was aware its nationals were being recruited by Russia. Zelensky stated that Ukraine had evidence of 155 Chinese individuals aiding Moscow’s invasion and alleged the capture of two Chinese soldiers in Donetsk. Without naming Ukraine, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian dismissed the claims, insisting China remains a neutral actor and a proponent of peace. Meanwhile, the Kremlin rejected Zelensky’s accusations, reaffirming that Beijing maintains a “balanced” position and is not being pulled into the war.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel razes land, buildings, to seize control of half of Gaza: Since shattering the Gaza ceasefire last month, Israel has taken control of over half of Gaza’s territory, forcing Palestinians into shrinking zones and razing swathes of land along the border. Rights groups and soldiers describe the creation of an ever-widening buffer zone, now up to 3 km deep, where homes, infrastructure, and farmland have been deliberately destroyed. The Netzarim Corridor, splitting Gaza north to south, and plans for a second in Rafah, indicate a long-term occupation strategy despite claims of temporary security needs. Israeli troops admit to flattening entire neighbourhoods, calling the area a "kill zone" where anyone approaching is shot—further exacerbating the destruction and dire humanitarian implications of Israel’s genocidal war.

5️⃣ 🇩🇴 🇭🇹 Dominican Republic to further securitise border with Haiti: President Luis Abinader has announced new border security measures and migration restrictions in response to growing instability in Haiti. He pledged to deploy 1,500 additional troops and accelerate construction of the border wall, adding 13km to the 54km already completed. Amid pressure to ease deportations, Abinader instead reaffirmed plans to repatriate thousands of Haitians weekly and introduce tougher penalties against those facilitating illegal entry. With over a million Haitians displaced and gang violence worsening in Port-au-Prince, Abinader has called for international support while reinforcing the Dominican Republic’s hardline stance on migration.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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