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In Asia this week, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah ruled out reviving the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, while East Timor formally joined ASEAN after a decades-long diplomatic pursuit. Meanwhile, Russia eyes Libya as a fallback amid its receding foothold in Syria, and NATO members approve a major defence spending surge.

This week’s main story shifts to Washington, where we unpack the Trump administration’s Tehran policy.

Read more below. ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Iran–Israel ceasefire takes effect, UN lambasts Israel's catastrophic aid programme: A ceasefire declared on social media by President Donald Trump took effect today, aiming to halt the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. This came despite Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi initially stating that Tehran had not held talks with Washington regarding a ceasefire. Both sides are now signalling tentative compliance. Israel breached the announcement with over 100 airstrikes on Tehran, including on the headquarters of the SPND nuclear programme, while Iran launched fresh missile salvos that caused destruction in Beersheva. Meanwhile, in Gaza, in what has become a grossly recurrent pattern at Israel’s ‘Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’ aid distribution sites, Israeli forces opened fire on Palestinian people queuing for food, killing 21 and wounding around 150. Five others died in a separate airstrike on a Gaza City home. The UN has reiterated its condemnation of the aid delivery system, which it says has integrated food into Israeli military strategy.

2️⃣ 🇳🇱 🇺🇦 NATO commits to major defence spending hike to satisfy Trump and deter Russia, Ukraine’s membership bid unaddressed: In a carefully orchestrated summit in The Hague, NATO leaders agreed to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035—3.5% for military capabilities and 1.5% for related infrastructure—marking a significant concession to President Donald Trump. The move, described by Trump as a “monumental win,” aims to reinforce U.S. commitment to the alliance and check Russian aggression. Leaders praised Trump for pressuring allies, with Poland’s President Duda declaring it “his success.” While Spain objected to the spending targets, Trump responded with trade threats. Despite minor tensions, NATO reaffirmed its “ironclad” commitment to Article 5 and pledged continued support for Ukraine, though Kyiv’s membership bid remained unaddressed. Secretary-General Mark Rutte hailed the alliance as “stronger, fairer and more lethal.”

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇪🇬 Hemidti wants 'reconciliation' with Egypt, gives first speech to RSF militants since the outbreak of war: In his first major public speech since the war began, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemidti) addressed thousands of fighters in South Darfur, calling for reconciliation with Egypt and accusing Sudan’s army leadership of fabricating tensions. He warned that continued military support for the Sudanese army from Egypt and South Sudan could force RSF retaliation, including a reassessment of oil transit agreements. Signalling confidence, Hemidti mocked rumours of his death, promised humanitarian aid in RSF-held areas, and extended an olive branch to Darfuri rebel leaders. He vowed to continue military operations, dismissing the army’s capacity and criticising its use of foreign fighters. Against the context of the UAE-backed RSF's wanton destruction of Darfur and numerous war crimes committed, Hemidti's speech appears an optics-driven appeal, attempting to manufacture some political legitimacy. In practice, no the RSF is yet to offer amnesty to any Darfuri resistance fighters.

4️⃣ 🇧🇷 Generals face civilian court as Brazil confronts military role in alleged coup: In a historic break from decades of military impunity, Brazil’s Supreme Court has summoned former Defense Minister Gen. Walter Braga Netto and Lt. Col. Mauro Cid—both accused of aiding Jair Bolsonaro’s attempt to overturn the 2022 election—to testify face-to-face. Cid, now a cooperating witness, alleges Braga Netto distributed cash to pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators and joined meetings discussing plans to block President Lula’s inauguration. Their tense confrontation, held behind closed doors, underscored deep fractures within the armed forces. Legal experts say the civilian trial marks a pivotal moment in Brazil’s democratic reckoning, as the military’s long-standing protection from accountability begins to erode under public and judicial pressure. A verdict is expected later in 2025.

5️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇹🇭 🇮🇩 ASEAN fragmentation deepens as Myanmar crisis fuels parallel diplomacy: More than four years since Myanmar’s coup, ASEAN’s response has fractured into an ad hoc patchwork of national initiatives. While the Five-Point Consensus remains the bloc’s official stance, regional diplomacy has splintered into parallel tracks, with states like Thailand and Indonesia pursuing unilateral or minilateral channels. These informal efforts—ranging from humanitarian dialogues to quiet talks with resistance actors—reflect growing disillusionment with ASEAN’s consensus model and non-interference norm. Although some initiatives have constructively expanded diplomatic reach, others have weakened unity and enabled the Myanmar junta to exploit internal divisions. As China builds influence through bilateral deals and members disagree over Myanmar’s proposed 2025 elections, ASEAN risks losing relevance. Without reform and better coordination, parallel diplomacy may shift from strategic improvisation to permanent fragmentation.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 MAKING SENSE OF WASHINGTON’S IRAN STRATEGY: DIPLOMATIC SHORTCOMINGS AND SHIFTS IN PUBLIC OPINION

As U.S. President Donald Trump travelled to The Hague for the NATO summit, a fragile ceasefire took hold in the Middle East after 12 days of war between Israel and Iran. Brokered by the U.S. and Qatar, the truce offers a temporary pause. Key questions now dominate America’s Iran policy terrain. While the NATO agenda remains focused on Ukraine and Russia, Iran's nuclear future looms in the background.

Has Iran’s Nuclear Program Been Dismantled?

The strikes, led by Israel with U.S. support, aimed to degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Trump claimed the program was “obliterated,” yet the Pentagon cautions the damage appears limited. Iran still retains significant capacity, and the risk of rapid reconstitution remains. Beyond nuclear infrastructure, Iran’s conventional capabilities, cyber operations, and regional allies continue to irk Israel.

Is There a Diplomatic Roadmap?

The Trump administration has called for peace, contingent on Iran abandoning nuclear ambitions. Yet three major hurdles complicate any diplomatic path: Washington’s betrayal of Tehran’s trust in the manufactured breakdown of the initial talks, Trump’s poor diplomatic record in the Middle East demonstrated by the ongoing Israeli onslaught in Gaza, and unclear intelligence on Iran’s programme status. Regional mediators—like Qatar, Oman, and Iraq—may prove essential to broker dialogue. For any deal to succeed, Iran must have guarantees on non-interference, and Israel must compliance with ceasefire terms. For any durable commitment, Tehran must be somehow assured that Washington is not acting as an arbiter of Israeli interests. 

Can the U.S. Sustain Engagement?

America’s divided public and political opinion—even within the MAGA camp—raise doubts about Washington’s staying power. Pre-strike polling showed low public appetite for confrontation with Iran, and although support rose slightly after the airstrikes, scepticism endures. The illegality of the so-called ‘pre-emptive’ strikes—dubiously framed as such—has further compounded the White House’s dilemma, even among many of its closest allies. Trump now faces the challenge of forging bipartisan backing and a coherent strategy. 

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇱🇾 🇸🇾 Russia considers Libya fallback as Syrian collapse jeopardises Africa influence: The fall of the Assad’s regime in November 2024 threatens Russia’s strategic footprint in Syria, potentially disrupting its military logistics and power projection across Africa. With the new Syrian government opening to U.S. engagement and reviewing foreign basing rights, Moscow is eyeing Libya—particularly General Haftar’s eastern strongholds—as a backup hub. Syria’s Tartus and Khmeimim bases were central to Russian operations, enabling mercenary deployments and resource extraction through the Africa Corps. Losing these facilities would complicate supply routes to Mali, Niger, and the Central African Republic. While Russia maintains bases in Libya, challenges remain: rival foreign actors, limited infrastructure, and political volatility. Assad’s downfall also shakes confidence among African allies, as Russian-backed operations increasingly struggle against insurgents and regional power vacuums draw in both Moscow and Beijing.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 🇺🇸 AFRICOM commander deepens U.S. security engagement with Ethiopia and Somaliland in back-to-back visits: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has met with AFRICOM Commander General Michael Langley. The two discussed regional and bilateral priorities, with a focus on counterterrorism and maritime cooperation. A day earlier, Langley led a U.S. delegation to Hargeisa for talks with Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro, addressing shared defence goals and inspecting the strategic port of Berbera. The U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa confirmed the emphasis on combating al-Shabaab and ISIS in the Horn. Langley’s near-simultaneous engagements in Addis and Hargeisa reflect Washington’s intent to expand regional partnerships as Red Sea instability and terror threats grow, positioning Somaliland and Ethiopia as key nodes in future U.S. security strategy.

3️⃣ 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste to join ASEAN after decades-long diplomatic effort: Timor-Leste will formally join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in October 2025, becoming its 11th member after more than two decades of pursuit. President José Ramos-Horta hailed the accession as a long-awaited milestone in the country’s post-independence diplomacy. Since gaining independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has been an observer in ASEAN and a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum since 2005. Its full membership marks a significant geopolitical achievement, signalling both the country’s persistence and the region’s recognition of its developmental and political potential. For ASEAN, Timor-Leste’s accession reinforces the bloc’s appeal as a hub for consensus-based diplomacy and a key driver of global economic integration.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 Witkoff eyes expanded Abraham Accords: U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff has said more countries may soon join the Abraham Accords, with normalisation of ties with Israel remaining a core priority for President Donald Trump. Speaking to CNBC, Witkoff predicted “major announcements” and said his team, alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is actively engaged in regional diplomacy. The accords, launched under Trump’s first term, have so far included the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. A billboard in Tel Aviv—featuring Trump, Netanyahu, and leaders from both normalised and non-normalised states—has stirred speculation. Notably, it includes Syria and Lebanon, despite ongoing territorial disputes. Syrian and Lebanese officials confirmed indirect contacts, but both countries maintain that normalisation is contingent on halting Israeli occupation and recognising a Palestinian state. Oman and Saudi Arabia have reiterated similar conditions.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Home Minister Shah rules out Indus treaty revival with Pakistan: India’s Home Minister Amit Shah has declared that the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan will “never be restored,” and that water from rivers previously allocated to Pakistan will be redirected to India’s Rajasthan state via new canals. The announcement follows an April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi blames on Pakistan, prompting India to suspend participation in the 1960 treaty. The agreement, which has survived decades of hostility, granted Pakistan access to critical western rivers. Legal experts say India’s unilateral suspension violates international law, as the treaty permits termination or revision only through mutual consent. Islamabad, calling any blockage of water an “act of war,” is considering a legal challenge. Shah’s remarks signal a hardening stance amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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