🇮🇹 Like a G7

- Armenia to leave the CSTO?

Billy Robinson
June 16, 2024

Sponsored by

Hello and welcome back!

This week has seen significant geopolitical developments, with EU parliamentary elections taking place and major news regarding Russia—a key topic at the G7 summit in Italy. Armenia has exited a Moscow-led security bloc, and the US has extended its sanctions on the state.

Pakistan and China have strengthened economic ties—raising concerns in India—while India and Taiwan's cooperation worries China.

In other news, Syria's lucrative narco-trade fuels regional instability.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 European Union parliamentary elections: Far-right parties have dealt crushing defeats to French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, sending shockwaves through the EU. The European Parliament, consisting of 720 seats, requires 361 for a majority. Seats are distributed based on population, with MEPs from larger countries representing more people. France, Spain, and the Netherlands gained two seats each, while Poland, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland, Slovenia, and Latvia each gained one. MEPs join one of seven transnational political groups. Following their losses, Macron has called for a snap parliamentary election, while Scholz's coalition suffered a historic rout, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming second.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 Pressure mounts on Ethiopian Federal government after new Tigray genocide inquiry: The Tigray War in Ethiopia, resulting in over 700,000 deaths, makes it the deadliest conflict of the 21st century. Multilateral efforts to address the crisis have waned, as evidenced by the disbandment of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia. The New Lines Institute report, authored by legal experts, calls for action under the Genocide Convention, urging the international community to pursue justice through the International Court of Justice and independent criminal investigations. This is likely to significantly impact Washington and the EU's policies toward Ethiopia, both of which have recently resumed financial aid and development strategies.

3️⃣ 🇦🇲 🇷🇺 Armenia to leave Russian-led security bloc: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on Wednesday plans to withdraw from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a security alliance of former Soviet states, amidst rising tensions with Russia. The CSTO includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Armenia had already suspended its participation, cancelled joint military drills, and avoided CSTO summits. During a parliamentary session, Pashinyan confirmed Armenia's intent to leave the CSTO, stating, "We will leave. We will decide when to leave. We won’t come back; there is no other way." The exact timing of the departure will be decided later by the government.

4️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇨🇳 Pakistan and China enhance bilateral economic relations through CPEC enhancement: During Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's first visit to China since his February election victory, Pakistan and China announced plans to enhance the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and begin Phase II. The $62-billion project connects Pakistan's Gwadar Port to China's Xinjiang region and includes roads, railways, power projects, and economic zones. Sharif's visit aimed to reassure China of Pakistan's commitment to security and project revival. Discussions with President Xi Jinping focused on aligning the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with Pakistan's development and expanding cooperation in various sectors. This action indirectly challenges India's geopolitical position, as it has faced conflicts with both Pakistan and China over disputed territories along its northern border.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 US expands Russia sanctions: Ahead of the G7 summit in Italy, the United States announced a new sanctions package targeting over 300 individuals and institutions supporting Russia's war against Ukraine, including several Chinese companies. These sanctions aim to curb entities helping Russia bypass previous sanctions and produce battlefield materials, according to the US State Department. The measures also target those involved in the abduction and re-education of Ukrainian children. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasised that the US remains committed to disrupting networks that support Russia's military industry and to preventing Russia from leveraging the international financial system for its war efforts.

Major Story

🇮🇹 G7 convenes in Puglia, Italy:

Overview

Leaders of advanced economies are preparing for the annual Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Italy amid ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East and increasing competition between the West and China.

The G7, often described as a "like-minded," exclusive, and Western-oriented group, includes the United States, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Britain. The leaders of these countries, along with the chiefs of the European Council and the European Commission, will gather to address pressing global challenges.

Who is attending?

The host country, Italy, can invite additional countries for extended discussions. This year, Italy has invited leaders from Jordan, Ukraine, India, Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Algeria, Tunisia, and Mauritania.

What is on the agenda?

The agenda includes discussions on Africa, climate change, development, the Middle East, Israel’s war on Gaza, migration, Asia-Pacific issues, and economic security. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to participate in two sessions focused on Ukraine. Other topics include artificial intelligence, energy, and the Mediterranean.

Promotion

Cut Through Noise with The Flyover!

The Flyover offers a refreshing alternative to traditional news. Our talented editors meticulously curate the day's top stories, keeping you informed and ready to win your day. Join over 600,000 readers who trust The Flyover's unbiased insights!

Subscribe with One Click!

Other News

1️⃣ 🇭🇹 New cabinet for Haiti: Haiti's transitional council appointed a new Cabinet on Tuesday to govern amid escalating gang violence. The new Cabinet includes Carlos Hercules as Minister of Justice and Public Security, Prime Minister Garry Conille as Interior Minister, and Jean Marc Berthier Antoine as Defense Minister. The country is bracing for the arrival of a U.N.-backed police force from Kenya to address the security crisis exacerbated by recent gang attacks, which led to the resignation of former Prime Minister Ariel Henry in April and the dissolution of his Cabinet.

2️⃣ 🇰🇼 🇸🇦 Kuwait names new Crown Prince, ties with Saudi Arabia strengthened: The appointment of Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah as crown prince has been widely celebrated in Kuwait, seen as a historic shift poised to stabilise politics and drive economic reforms. His role includes boosting Kuwait’s regional influence, starting with a diplomatic visit to Jeddah soon after taking office. Analysts and media praise his competence and extensive experience, ushering in a new era amid a political crisis. The move also highlights Kuwait’s intent to strengthen ties with Gulf partners, especially Saudi Arabia, as Sheikh Sabah and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have already committed to enhancing bilateral cooperation.

3️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 Increased tensions in the Korea DMZ: South Korea fired warning shots after North Korean soldiers briefly crossed the border amid rising tensions over Pyongyang's trash-carrying balloons. The incident occurred on Sunday in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) believe the breach was accidental due to dense forest obscuring border markings. The soldiers, about 20-30 carrying tools, retreated north after the warning shots.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Benny Gantz resigns from Israel’s war cabinet, Nuseirat massacre death toll climbs: Israeli minister Benny Gantz resigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's emergency government, withdrawing the sole centrist influence from the far-right coalition amid a prolonged conflict in Gaza. Although Gantz's departure doesn't immediately alter the identity of the government, it significantly impacts Netanyahu's reliance on hardliners, with the Gaza war ongoing and potential escalations with Hizbollah. In parallel, the Nuseirat massacre claimed the lives of at least 274 Palestinians, showing no reduction in Gaza's violence despite prospects for a US-led ceasefire.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇮🇳 🇹🇼 Beijing perturbed by Modi’s Taiwan ties: Taiwan's newly elected president, Lai Ching-te, recently congratulated Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, highlighting the "fast-growing" Taiwan-India partnership. Modi responded by advocating for "closer ties" and a "mutually beneficial economic and technological partnership." Unsurprisingly, this move agitated China, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning reiterating opposition to official interactions between Taiwan and countries that maintain diplomatic relations with China. This exchange underscores the increasing cooperation between India and Taiwan, particularly in technology sectors such as semiconductor chips and mobile device manufacturing.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇸🇾 Captagon crisis causing carnage between Syria and its neighbours: Syria is at the heart of a severe and underreported drug crisis as the world's leading producer of captagon, an illegal narcotic. In the Gulf states, captagon is used recreationally by affluent youth, while in Iraq and Libya, it is consumed by those traumatised by war. Captagon production generates an estimated $5.7 billion annually, significantly benefiting Bashar al-Assad's regime and Lebanese group Hizbollah, and accounts for over a quarter of Syria's GDP. The industry thrived after the 2011 Syrian civil war, which led to state control collapse and economic desperation. Weak governance and powerful militant groups in Syria and Lebanon have turned these regions into hubs for drug production and trafficking, concurrently worsening drug crises in neighbouring countries.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 The ever-expanding Israel-Hizbollah front: Since the Gaza war erupted in October, Iran-backed Hizbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire, with escalating violence raising concerns of a larger conflict between these heavily armed adversaries. This past week, cross-border hostilities reached their peak, with an Israeli targeted strike killing senior Hizbollah figure Taleb Abdallah (also known as Abu Taleb) and two other fighters in the south Lebanon village of Jouaiyya. In retaliation, Hizbollah launched over 160 missiles at Israel. With civilian casualties rising in South Lebanon and over 100,000 Israeli civilians still displaced in Israel’s north, this conflict is expected to escalate further.