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Welcome to this week’s midweek special on the Indian election.

Let’s get into it ⬇️

🇮🇳 In January 2020, American tech giant Jeff Bezos heralded the 21st century as the Indian century. Since the pandemic, this prediction has increasingly aligned with reality. While China faces challenges in recovering post-pandemic, the European Union verges on a recession, and the USA experiences high inflation, India has enjoyed consistent economic growth and a boost in its global political stature. The future direction of this rising power will now be shaped by the Indian electorate over the next five years.

As the largest democracy in the world, home to 1.4 billion people, India began voting on April 19. Despite the country's extensive and diverse terrain, a million polling stations have been established across the nation, including one at an extraordinary elevation of 4,650 meters in the Himalayas. The electoral process is set to last six weeks, ending on June 1, with the announcement of results expected on June 4. Given its status as one of the world's quickest-growing economies, the outcome of this election is likely to have significant international consequences, especially as India enhances its relationships with nations such as the U.S., the U.K., and France.

Seeking a third term in office, the current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has governed since 2014, are contesting the elections. The BJP secured a majority in the 2019 elections with 37% of the vote.

India’s Electoral Process

With nearly 1 billion eligible voters – constituting over 10% of the world's population – India boasts the world’s largest electorate, employing the Westminster parliamentary system, wherein the leader of the party that secures a parliamentary majority assumes the role of Prime Minister. India comprises 28 states and 7 union territories, each with its own parliamentary constituencies (PCs). Gujarat, for instance, has 26 PCs. The lower house of Parliament – the Lok Sabha – consists of 543 elected PC members. Meanwhile, each state has its own legislative assembly, from which members of the legislative assembly (MLAs), along with 12 individuals personally nominated by the President, form the Upper House, the Rajya Sabha, which is not subject to election during this period.

India utilises the First Past the Post (FPP) voting method, with the 2019 voter turnout at 67%, the most in Indian parliamentary election history. With India's electoral process broadly considered to maintain laudable democratic integrity. Election outcomes have tended to be undisputed. The Guardian’s Hannah Ellis-Peterson has highlighted concerns about the erosion of media freedom under Modi's tenure, suggesting a growing pro-Modi bias in Indian media coverage, in addition to emerging challenges to the independence of the judiciary.

The Key Players

Ascending from modest beginnings, Prime Minister Narendra Modi commands a cult of personality and enjoys immense popularity, leveraging social media and technology to connect with the populace. His ubiquitous presence is evident, adorning billboards, cricket stadiums, COVID certificates, and government welfare schemes bearing his name. According to the majority of polls, Modi emerges as the leading contender. His BJP party embraces Hindu nationalist ideals, often prioritising Hindu majoritarianism over the constitution's secular principles. The BJP spearheaded the formation of the National Democratic Alliance coalition (NDA), elevating their parliamentary majority to 296 seats. 

Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi heads the Indian National Congress Party (INC), a lynchpin in a coalition comprising 27 parties aimed at unseating the BJP. The INC, which dominated Indian politics for decades under the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, has more recently contended with accusations of elitism from the body politic. This coalition’s momentum has stagnated amidst internal strife– particularly concerning seat distribution and leadership– which has led to some parties defecting to the BJP.

Amidst the political landscape that boasts a staggering 2600 registered political parties, the opposition alleges marginalisation from Modi’s government. Chief Minister of Delhi and influential coalition figure, Arvind Kejriwal, faces corruption charges in a controversial juncture that has sparked debate over the incumbent government’s repression of opposition politicians, something the BJP vehemently denies.

Central Policy Issues

Modi's emphasis on nationalism, religion, and economic development have been the cornerstones of his campaign, with significant investments directed towards infrastructure projects and welfare programs. Despite this, critics have pointed out that wealth remains disproportionately concentrated amongst the elite. 

The INC has advocated for civil partnerships for LGBTQ+ couples, signalling a departure from traditional stances on social issues. Opposition parties have also highlighted concerns over rising unemployment and inflation, accusing the BJP of promoting ‘corrupt crony capitalism.’ Agriculture has also been a salient talking point, as Farmers– constituting a significant voting bloc– have voiced grievances about marginalisation under Modi's government. 

Possible Outcomes

A victory for the BJP appears highly likely, fueled by its substantial financial resources and extensive network on social media platforms. However, the opposition hopes that simmering discontent in electoral battlegrounds Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal threaten the BJP’s aspirations for sole parliamentary majority. Tamil Nadu emerges as a pivotal battleground state with 39 parliamentary constituencies, where Congress has allied with regional heavyweights Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), building on their successful 2019 election alliance. For the BJP, achieving its objective of securing 400 seats hinges significantly on making gains in this electorate.

According to the opposition, a BJP victory with 400 seats would implicitly facilitate democratic backsliding, paving the way for an abrogation of India's 75-year-old secular constitution. The prospect of a Hindu constitution – at the expense of India’s 75-year-old secular constitution – has raised apprehensions vis-a-vis further entrenchment of Hindu nationalist domestic policies, potentially marginalising the religious and cultural practices of minority groups.

Geopolitically, another Modi term would see India continue its strategic partnerships and security alignments, characterised by the "Modi doctrine," which emphasises investment deals and strengthened bilateral relations with countries including China. India is expected to maintain its active participation in multilateral forums– including the BRICS economic bloc– as it solidifies its position as an economic heavyweight. Additionally, India's "link west" policy, aimed at bolstering ties with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, is expected to persist. 

Externally, the potential perception of a Hindu-centric constitution as discriminatory may further strain diplomatic relations and exacerbate regional tensions, particularly with neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Tips, Suggestions & Credit

Before we see you on Sunday:

We welcome your news tips and suggestions for regular sections, just let us know the stories you want to see covered here: [email protected]

This issue was splendidly written by William Robinson and Joe Foote.