Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 Kashmir on a knife's edge

📰 Kashmir on a knife's edge

and Russia retakes Kursk

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 04, 2025

This week in North America, the Trump administration moves to designate Haitian gangs as foreign terrorist organisations, while Mark Carney secures victory in the Canadian federal election.

Elsewhere, Merz and Macron reset Franco-German relations amid mounting economic and security pressures, and the DRC government reaches a Qatar-brokered agreement with M23 rebels for an “immediate” ceasefire.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇰🇵 Russia regains control of Kursk, says Kremlin: The Kremlin has claimed that Ukrainian forces had been fully expelled from Russia’s Kursk region, while for the first time confirming North Korean troops' involvement in the fighting. Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine suffered "huge losses," a claim Kyiv dismissed as “propaganda” while insisting its forces still control about 30 sq km. The announcement came as U.S. President Donald Trump, after meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican, questioned Putin’s willingness to negotiate peace, accusing him of prolonging the war through missile attacks on civilians. Meanwhile, Russian officials credited North Korean troops—deployed in the thousands and equipped with artillery systems—for aiding Moscow’s advances, as Ukraine vowed its defensive operations in Kursk and Belgorod would continue.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇴 Turkey secures sweeping energy and security privileges in Somalia deal: The full text of a wide-ranging hydrocarbons agreement between Turkey and Somalia has been released following its submission to the Turkish Parliament for ratification. Signed in March 2024, the deal grants Turkish firms major advantages, including exemption from upfront fees, a 90% cost recovery arrangement, and full export rights over oil and gas revenue. Turkey is also authorized to deploy security forces to protect its energy operations, with related costs reimbursed through petroleum revenues. In return, Somalia retains sovereignty over its resources, while Turkey strengthens its strategic foothold in the Gulf of Aden through privileged access to Somali maritime zones.

3️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇲🇦 Algeria lays legal groundwork for full-scale wartime mobilisation: Algeria has introduced a draft law that could authorise sweeping nationwide mobilisation during times of war or national crisis, giving the military control over civilians, infrastructure, and the economy. The 69-article bill, presented to parliament on Monday, allows for the requisition of property, control over production, and regulation of borders and movement—grounded in Article 99 of the constitution. Critics argue the law, which imposes harsh penalties for non-compliance and unauthorised information, reflects a broader authoritarian shift justified by claims of “foreign threats.” Though officials say it’s a legal update, its timing amid regional tensions with France, Morocco, and the Sahel has raised questions about Algeria’s intentions.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israel bombs Damascus amid deadly clashes in Druze areas: Syria’s foreign ministry rejected all forms of foreign interference, following Israeli claims that it targeted extremists threatening the Druze community near Damascus. The statement came after violent clashes erupted in Ashrafieh Sahnaya, killing at least 11, including Druze leader Sheikh Wajdi al-Hajj Ali. Fighting reportedly involved local gunmen and armed groups mobilising from Daraa, with tensions spreading to surrounding villages. Meanwhile, Syrian authorities launched raids to restore order and imposed curfews as violence also flared in Jaramana, prompting emergency meetings to defuse sectarian tensions.

5️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇶🇦 DRC government, M23 agree to ‘immediate’ ceasefire: The Democratic Republic of the Congo and M23 rebels have announced an agreement to halt fighting in the country’s east as they pursue a permanent truce. The joint statement, mediated by Qatar and aired on national television, marks a rare commitment to a ceasefire in a conflict that has seen numerous failed truces since 2021. Both parties pledged to maintain the cessation of hostilities for the duration of ongoing talks. While DR Congo has long accused M23 of being backed by Rwanda—claims Kigali denies—the Qatar-led mediation comes amid rising tensions and significant Qatari investments in both Rwanda and DR Congo.

Major Story

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 INDIA AND PAKISTAN: SLEEPWALKING INTO WAR?

Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership met in a tense National Security Committee session last week, deeply unsettled by India’s swift accusations following a deadly assault in Indian-administered Kashmir. Armed men, reportedly linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba under the banner of "Kashmir Resistance," killed 26 civilians and wounded dozens in Baisaran. India immediately blamed Pakistan, prompting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to vow retaliation and suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, cancel visas, and downgrade diplomatic ties. Pakistan denied involvement, calling the claims “politically motivated.”

Unprecedented Indus Treaty Suspension

India’s decision to suspend the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty—long seen as untouchable even during war—is seen in Pakistan as a severe provocation. With Pakistan’s agriculture reliant on the Indus river system, experts warn of devastating consequences. Analyst Pervez Hoodbhoy said the treaty's revocation amounts to “a call for war.” Pakistan responded with reciprocal expulsions, trade suspensions, and closed airspace to Indian flights.

Modi’s Domestic Politics and Anti-Pakistan Narrative

While Pakistan has historically supported insurgent networks, critics say Modi’s Hindu nationalist politics and crackdown in Kashmir fuel internal unrest. Modi has frequently invoked anti-Pakistan sentiment for electoral gain, including following the 2019 Pulwama attack, which nearly sparked war. Under his leadership, India has also revoked Kashmir’s autonomy, jailed dissidents, and emboldened right-wing groups targeting Muslims.

Risks of Further Escalation

The timing of the attack—coinciding with a high-level US visit—raises concerns about international involvement. While the US once played a mediating role, current signals suggest full alignment with India. As tempers flare, observers urge restraint between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The poorest communities across both countries stand to suffer most from any escalation.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 Merz and Macron reset Franco-German ties amid economic, security urgency: As Friedrich Merz prepares to assume office on 6 May, expectations are rising that his partnership with Emmanuel Macron will restore momentum to Franco-German cooperation after years of stagnation. Strained by internal divisions in Germany’s outgoing coalition and France’s fragile parliamentary position, the traditional European engine has faltered. Merz’s pro-EU stance and personal commitment to Franco-German relations are seen in Paris as a welcome shift, aligning closely with Macron’s positions on defence, Ukraine, and energy. Still, divergence remains on trade and fiscal issues, and both leaders—pressed by far-right surges at home—must move swiftly to deliver results before electoral clocks run out.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇭🇹 Trump administration to label Haitian gangs as foreign terror organisations: The Trump administration has notified Congress of its intent to designate Haitian gangs Viv Ansanm and Gran Grif as foreign terrorist organisations, expanding the U.S. definition of terrorism. The designation, which would criminalise material support and enable sanctions, follows similar measures against Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang and comes amid a broader immigration crackdown. Viv Ansanm, a powerful coalition formed in 2023, has seized control of large parts of Port-au-Prince and launched attacks that shut Haiti’s airport and deposed Prime Minister Ariel Henry. With gang violence displacing thousands and driving record hunger, the move signals growing U.S. pressure amid Haiti’s spiralling security crisis.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran-U.S. talks progressing positively, reports Al Majalla: Negotiations between Iran and the United States are progressing rapidly, with the latest round taking place on April 26 in Muscat. Both parties appear more committed to reaching a deal than during the 2013–15 nuclear talks, largely due to heightened urgency: Iran is now a nuclear threshold state, and failure could trigger military strikes. Domestically, Iran’s political landscape has shifted, limiting hardliner resistance, while the U.S. side has appointed loyalist Michael Anton to head its technical team. Regional actors like Saudi Arabia now back the process, reducing external opposition, though key issues—such as uranium enrichment limits—remain unresolved and could challenge the talks as they deepen.

4️⃣ 🇨🇦 Mark Carney wins Canadian election: Donald Trump’s return to the White House profoundly shifted Canadian politics, with voters unexpectedly re-electing the Liberals in late 2024 despite Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre holding a massive lead just months earlier. Mark Carney, newly chosen Liberal leader, campaigned on resisting Trump’s threats—including steep tariffs and sovereignty-eroding rhetoric—and positioned himself as the candidate most capable of standing firm. In a surprising turn, Poilievre lost his own seat as Canadian voters rallied around Carney’s message, even as his party gained ground overall. With Trump renewing economic pressure, Canada now faces difficult questions about whether it can reduce its reliance on the U.S. or whether, despite political posturing, economic interdependence remains inescapable.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 ICJ hears Gaza blockade case as Cairo ceasefire talks show signs of progress: The International Court of Justice began hearings Monday on Israel’s total blockade of Gaza, with representatives from 40 countries set to speak after an opening address by the Palestinian Authority. Meanwhile, UN agencies warned that food supplies have entirely run out, with 16 community kitchens forced to close over the weekend and more closures imminent. As Israeli strikes continue, killing at least 17 people, Egyptian security sources said negotiations in Cairo had achieved a “significant breakthrough” toward a long-term ceasefire, though major sticking points remain, particularly Hamas’s refusal to disarm. Egypt’s intelligence chief is expected to meet an Israeli delegation in Cairo to continue discussions.