Geopolitics Weekly
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📰 Israel strikes Syria, Lebanon, Gaza

📰 Israel strikes Syria, Lebanon, Gaza

and Canada set for snap election

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 30, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

This week, hundreds have been killed in Ethiopia’s Amhara region amid fierce clashes between government forces and the Eritrea-backed Fano militia. In Türkiye, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has secured a surprise landslide victory in the opposition’s presidential primary, while the White House has unveiled sweeping 25% tariffs on imported automobiles.

Today’s main story — The EU at a Crossroads: Responding to Washington’s New Foreign Policy — examines how Europe is recalibrating its role amid a shifting transatlantic order.

This, and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 Al-Burhan lands in Khartoum as SAF declare capital ‘liberated’: Sudan’s army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, announced that Khartoum state had been "liberated" from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking his first return to the capital’s international airport since the war began nearly two years ago. Earlier that day, the army launched its largest ground offensive in Khartoum, reclaiming key military and civilian sites as RSF fighters retreated westward. Drone footage showed RSF convoys jammed on the Jebel Aulia bridge, fleeing southern Khartoum, where locals welcomed the army’s arrival with celebrations in neighbourhoods like Sahafa, Kalakla, and Gereif. Burhan later visited the recaptured Presidential Palace, declaring, “Khartoum is free,” in a symbolic move following the army’s reclaiming of the city centre and Republican Palace on March 21.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇸🇦 Black Sea Ceasefire hinges on sanctions relief for Russia: Russia and Ukraine have agreed to reduce hostilities in the Black Sea following indirect negotiations facilitated by the U.S. in Saudi Arabia. However, Moscow says a full maritime ceasefire will only begin if Western sanctions on Russian agricultural exports are eased. While Washington is reviewing these conditions, President Zelenskyy criticised any potential concessions, warning they would undermine Kyiv’s leverage as the wider land conflict continues. Though both sides committed to halting strikes on energy infrastructure and exploring a lasting peace, core disputes—including territorial claims and Russian control of Ukrainian regions—remain unresolved, casting doubt on the durability of these early steps toward de-escalation.

3️⃣ 🇨🇦 Canada’s prime minister triggers snap election set for April: Canada’s newly appointed prime minister Mark Carney has dissolved Parliament and called a snap election for April 28, just days after taking office. Citing escalating tensions with the United States and aggressive trade policies from President Donald Trump, Carney is seeking a renewed mandate to confront external pressures and reshape Canada’s economy. The Liberal Party, buoyed by a post-Trudeau surge in support, hopes to capitalise on recent momentum and voter frustration with U.S. interference. With polls showing a tight race against the Conservatives, Carney’s gamble could either cement his leadership or expose vulnerabilities in a deeply polarised political climate.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 🇵🇸 🇪🇺 Israel strikes Syria, Lebanon, Gaza; EU issues warning: In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its military operations in Syria, launching over 70 ground incursions and dozens of airstrikes, while also striking Lebanon and Gaza. This surge in aggression follows the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and threatens to derail the interim government's fragile efforts to rebuild the country and maintain regional calm. Despite no recent attacks from Syrian territory, Israel has advanced deeper into Syria, citing security concerns and calls for southern demilitarization. With Turkey preparing to back Syria’s airspace sovereignty and Iran-linked insurgents re-emerging, Israel’s actions risk triggering a broader conflict just as a post-Assad Syria signals readiness to reengage with the international community.

5️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇺🇳 South Sudan opposition says Riek Machar has been arrested, UN warns of a renewed civil war: The United Nations has expressed grave concern over South Sudan’s deteriorating political situation, warning that the country risks sliding back into civil war. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is closely monitoring developments, especially the reported house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar, which peace partners say undermines the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement. UN officials are urging all parties, including President Salva Kiir and Machar, to peacefully resolve their differences and prioritise national stability. With over 9 million South Sudanese already in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, the UN cautioned that another conflict would be catastrophic for the population.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇺🇸 THE EU AT A CROSSROADS: RESPONDING TO WASHINGTON’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY

Donald Trump’s return to power has disrupted global diplomacy, with the U.S embracing political realism and sidelining long-standing liberal internationalist norms. His administration’s transactional approach, exemplified by ceasefire overtures to Russia and the marginalisation of European allies in key negotiations, has left EU leaders scrambling. Riyadh and Jeddah, not Brussels or Geneva, are now the stage for strategic dialogue—underscoring Europe’s diplomatic erosion and Washington’s new foreign policy doctrine.

European Disunity and Missed Opportunities

Despite attempts to rally around militarised deterrence and increased defence spending, the EU’s fragmented structure prevents it from mounting a unified, credible security strategy. Proposals like a European peacekeeping force or a nuclear umbrella are disconnected from both reality and capability. Trump’s sidelining of NATO and coercive diplomacy with Kyiv forced European leaders to fall in line, exposing their lack of agency and overreliance on American protection.

Path Forward: Reclaiming Strategic Autonomy

Rebuilding diplomatic channels with Russia and reclaiming influence through economic pragmatism and neighbourly diplomacy are urgent imperatives for the EU, writes analyst William J. Jones. European leaders should refocus on their core strength—economic integration—and reorient foreign policy to reflect geographical and material realities. A realist, interest-based posture rooted in sovereignty, stability, and multipolar cooperation is the only sustainable way forward in the face of unpredictable U.S. leadership and shifting global power dynamics.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇩🇪 White House announces 25% automobile tariffs: President Donald Trump has announced a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles, with the new levies set to take effect on April 2. The move, aimed at key exporters such as Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Japan, and Germany, marks a dramatic escalation in Trump’s protectionist trade policy. While Trump argues the tariffs will bolster domestic production and generate over $100 billion in annual revenue, economists warn they could raise car prices by up to $12,000 and trigger inflationary pressures. Investors and industry groups have voiced concern, citing potential harm to consumer spending and US market stability.

2️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇵🇸 Egypt’s Gaza plan gains traction amid diplomatic uncertainty: Egypt’s $53 billion proposal to rebuild Gaza—featuring a six-month transitional administration and eventual handover to the Palestinian Authority—is gaining backing from Arab states and European powers. It presents a direct challenge to earlier U.S. proposals under Donald Trump, which promoted forced displacement and a controversial “Middle East Riviera” vision. While praised by some U.S. officials as a constructive step, Egypt’s plan faces resistance from Washington and Israel, particularly over Hamas’s exclusion from the transitional body. Hamas has expressed conditional support for a consensus government but insists on retaining its weapons, complicating negotiations as Israel and the U.S. refuse to accept any role for the group without disarmament.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 Imamoglu wins landslide victory from behind in presidential primary: Nearly 15 million people voted for imprisoned Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu in a presidential primary organised by Turkiye’s main opposition party, the CHP, according to municipal officials. The party reported that 1.7 million registered members and over 13 million non-members backed Imamoglu as their candidate for the 2028 election. His arrest last week on corruption charges, widely viewed as politically motivated, has sparked nationwide protests. While the government insists the judiciary is impartial, opposition leaders argue that Imamoglu’s rising popularity and the looming primary prompted his detention, with CHP leader Ozgur Ozel calling the result a direct challenge to President Erdogan’s legitimacy.

4️⃣ 🇩🇪 Germany poised for hawkish migration and defence policies under proposed coalition deal: Germany’s likely incoming coalition—comprising Friedrich Merz’s centre-right CDU/CSU and the centre-left SPD—has agreed to implement the country’s most stringent migration reforms in decades, according to a leaked draft agreement seen by POLITICO. The proposed measures include significantly expanding migrant detention capacity, suspending family reunification for two years, broadening the list of “safe” countries for deportations, scrapping mandatory legal aid before repatriation, and introducing automatic deportation for migrants with prison sentences. The deal follows the far-right AfD’s historic second-place finish in February’s election and signals a broader political shift. However, the SPD continues to oppose CDU plans for offshore asylum processing centres. On defence, talks remain unresolved: the CDU wants to raise military spending to 3.5% of GDP and reintroduce conscription, while the SPD prefers voluntary service and more modest spending increases. Final coalition negotiations are ongoing.

5️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 Hundreds killed in Amhara region as Ethiopian security forces clash with Eritrea–backed Fano: Renewed clashes in Ethiopia’s Amhara region have reportedly left over 300 Fano fighters dead, according to a statement from the national army. The military claimed the group launched attacks in multiple areas before being “neutralized,” reporting 317 killed and 125 injured. However, Fano leaders dispute these figures, alleging instead that hundreds of federal troops were killed and dozens captured. Once allies in the war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Fano and the Ethiopian military turned against each other following Amhara’s dissatisfaction with the 2022 Pretoria peace deal. Amid rising tensions, Human Rights Watch has accused the army of war crimes, including the execution of civilians in Merawi, warning that the military’s conduct contradicts its stated aim of restoring order.