The Middle East takes centre stage this week as Israel launches a major assault on Iran, and Iran retaliates, fuelling fears of regional escalation.

In Syria, foreign fighters are set to be integrated into the national army amid persistent risks of fragmentation. In Iraq, divisions within Shi’a political blocs deepen ahead of the November elections, placing Prime Minister al-Sudani’s political future in serious doubt.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Israel strikes Iran, Trump weighs U.S. response: Israel has launched a wide-ranging military campaign against Iran—dubbed Operation Rising Lion—targeting nuclear facilities, military sites, and senior officials, including the heads of the IRGC and key scientists. The 13 June attacks, involving over 200 Israeli aircraft and Mossad-led drone strikes, follow months of rising tensions and came days before U.S.-Iran nuclear talks were set to resume. Iran responded by firing drones and ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting U.S. missile defence assistance. President Trump initially distanced Washington from the attacks but later threatened “even more brutal” strikes if Tehran refuses a deal. Iran views the assault as an existential threat. With casualties mounting and regional stakes high, further escalation risks dragging the U.S. into direct conflict unless Trump presses Israel to de-escalate and offers Iran credible incentives to stand down.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 NATO secretary general proposes gargantuan defence spending increase, says Russia poses five-year threat: NATO could face a military challenge from Russia within five years, prompting Secretary General Mark Rutte to call for a dramatic rise in defence spending. In a London speech, Rutte urged alliance members to commit 5% of GDP to security—3.5% in core military expenditure and 1.5% in cyber and related capabilities—citing Russia’s continued militarisation even after any potential ceasefire in Ukraine. Western planners believe Moscow may maintain a 600,000-strong army and spend 6.5% of GDP on defence. The proposal, supported by the UK and encouraged by President Trump, is expected to be formalised at NATO’s Hague summit. Rutte warned that air and missile defence must increase 400%, alongside rearmament and restocking efforts to sustain credible deterrence and confront what he termed a “new era of threat.”

3️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 🇺🇳 Thailand, Cambodia withdraw troops ahead of talks: After a deadly border clash on 28 May that left one Cambodian soldier dead, tensions between Cambodia and Thailand have spiked over contested territory near Preah Vihear. Cambodia’s defence ministry declared that its troops remain stationed in areas it considers sovereign, despite Thai claims and mutual accusations over the incident in the so-called “no man’s land.” Both countries, however, have since signalled willingness to de-escalate, with military leaders agreeing to reposition forces to pre-2024 locations. The rhetoric—partly aimed at domestic nationalist audiences—belies deeper disputes rooted in history, including a 1962 ICJ ruling favouring Cambodia. Prime Minister Hun Manet has pledged to take all four disputed areas to the UN court, even unilaterally, in a bid to settle the matter definitively. Whether diplomacy prevails over politics remains uncertain.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 A Palestinian state is not a U.S. policy goal says Huckabee, fuelling fears of ethnic cleansing: U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has dismissed the viability of a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank, instead proposing that neighbouring Muslim-majority countries give up land to establish one. Huckabee – a longtime advocate of Israeli settlement expansion and a Trump appointee – suggested that there is “no room” for a Palestinian state in the territories Israel occupies, and that such a state could be created “somewhere different,” including in Saudi Arabia. Framing Palestinians as the responsibility of Muslim states, Huckabee invoked their territorial size, arguing they could “carve out something” for Palestinians instead of pressuring Israel. His remarks mirror Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent calls for the displacement of Gazans, reinforcing fears in Egypt and Jordan of forced population transfers. Huckabee’s refusal to rule out total displacement signals a dramatic hardening of U.S. policy under Trump’s second term.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Beijing–Washington agree on framework to implement Geneva trade consensus: Following two days of intense negotiations in London, the U.S. and China have agreed on a framework to revive last month’s trade deal, pending final approval from Presidents Trump and Xi. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick credited the breakthrough to Trump’s conciliatory tone during a 90-minute call with Xi, which Chinese officials repeatedly cited during talks. The deal, struck at Lancaster House, aims to restore the May 12 tariff pause and ease China’s restrictions on rare earth exports—critical to high-tech industries. Tensions had escalated after tit-for-tat moves on tech and student visas, but both sides now seek economic stability. While US data remains solid, China’s exports to the US dropped 34% in May. Details remain vague, but the framework marks a cautious step toward de-escalation.

Major Story

🇧🇦 🇪🇺 BOSNIA AT THE BRINK: CAN DAYTON BE REIMAGINED BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE?

Bosnia and Herzegovina faces its gravest postwar political crisis, as Republika Srpska (RS) defies state authority and edges toward de facto secession. Milorad Dodik, RS’s president, has long tested Sarajevo’s limits, but a court conviction for disobeying the high representative has raised the stakes. RS’s legislature has since passed sweeping laws undermining the state judiciary and cementing entity control—steps designed to assert autonomy rather than outright independence, which remains diplomatically unviable. 

At the heart of the conflict is the legacy of the 1995 Dayton Accords, which ended the war but entrenched ethnic divisions and a weak central state. The high representative’s post-Dayton “Bonn powers” gradually strengthened state institutions, often to the resentment of RS and Croat leaders. Today, RS seeks a return to “original Dayton,” demanding international supervision be rolled back and entity prerogatives restored.

Dodik’s gamble rests on shifting international winds. He has cultivated allies in Trump’s orbit, hosted Rudy Giuliani, and aligned with Serbia’s Vučić and Hungary’s Orbán. Meanwhile, Washington’s muted support for the high representative under Trump contrasts with EU backing for his authority. Yet despite these ties, U.S. sanctions remain in place, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently condemned Dodik’s actions. Pressure is mounting, with Bosnian prosecutors pursuing charges of undermining constitutional order. But arresting Dodik could trigger political upheaval or even renewed ethnic unrest. Even his removal would not end the crisis: RS’s push for autonomy reflects a broader, deep-seated rejection of international tutelage and Sarajevo’s growing power.

A negotiated political reset remains the least destructive path forward, writes Crisis Group’s Marko Prelec. RS’s manoeuvres may be aimed at forcing such talks—potentially involving Croats who also chafe under the current framework. Yet without robust U.S. and EU mediation and incentives—such as EU accession conditionality—there is little sign Bosnia’s entrenched leaders can overcome their mutual suspicion.

Three decades after Dayton, Bosnia’s survival as a unified state hinges less on international enforcement and more on whether its own leaders can craft a legitimate, inclusive model of governance. Without external pressure to catalyse compromise, paralysis—and slow fragmentation—will likely prevail.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukraine's strategic dilemma deepens: Ukraine’s drone strike deep inside Russia, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, showcased Kyiv's tactical aptitude and exposed Moscow’s security flaws. Yet while the operation may have boosted morale and forced Russia to redirect defensive resources, it did little to alter the war’s strategic balance, nor its underlying realities. Airstrikes, writes Stephen Walt, no matter how dramatic, rarely decide wars. Three years in, Ukraine and its allies still lack a cohesive strategy to counter Russia’s war aims or force a political resolution. Despite Zelensky’s leadership and Western support, the Kremlin remains committed, with Putin facing minimal internal dissent. Ukraine’s offensives haven’t shifted momentum, and its supporters remain unwilling to risk escalation. Tactical innovation alone cannot overcome deep geopolitical divides or Russia’s numerical advantage. Ending the war demands tough diplomacy, not just drones or symbolic battlefield victories.

2️⃣ 🇪🇹 Tigray’s political transition derailed as Getachew aligns with federal narratives: A growing chorus of criticism has emerged over what many view as the co-opted political trajectory of Tigray, embodied in the figure of TPLF stalwart Getachew Reda. A recent article defending his role—Tigray’s Hijacked Transition—has sparked concern for echoing the same federal narratives that long vilified Tigrayans. Rather than offering rigorous analysis, the article frames internal dissent as criminality, misrepresents military dynamics around the Pretoria Agreement, and sidesteps the humanitarian cost of Tigray’s conflict. Critics argue that Getachew’s endorsement of Prosperity Party rhetoric, his new political ambitions, and efforts to delegitimise the TPLF expose a deeper strategy: dismantling Tigray’s organised resistance and self-determination agenda. With rising tensions, selective memory of atrocities, and federal backing for rival factions, the region risks being further destabilised under the guise of reform and reconciliation.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 🇬🇧 Pentagon reassesses AUKUS deal as concerns rise over strategic costs and commitments: The Pentagon is reassessing the AUKUS security pact between the U.S., UK, and Australia, which includes developing nuclear-powered submarines and hypersonic weapons to counter China’s Pacific influence. The review, led by policy chief Elbridge Colby, comes amid concerns the deal may strain U.S. shipbuilding capacity. While Colby has previously criticized plans to sell Virginia-class submarines to Australia, he acknowledged during Senate hearings that AUKUS remains a critical alliance. The review has drawn criticism from Democrats, who warn that backtracking could damage U.S. credibility and benefit Beijing. With $3 billion in Australian investment and expanding cooperation in advanced technologies, AUKUS is a cornerstone of current defence planning. Allies like the UK remain committed, but Washington’s wavering has left key lawmakers questioning the consistency of U.S. leadership.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇲🇱 Challenges persist as Russia and Mali restructure their security partnership: On 6 June, Russia’s Wagner Group announced its exit from Mali, ending a nearly three-year deployment alongside the Malian army against jihadist insurgents. Wagner claims its mission is complete, yet violence continues and Russia’s military footprint remains—merely restructured. The newly established Africa Corps, a unit under Russia’s Defence Ministry, will assume Wagner’s role, with much of its personnel reportedly drawn from Wagner ranks. While Moscow tightens control following Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 2023 death, core problems remain. Mali faces difficulty funding the new arrangement amid budget shortfalls, and Russian-backed forces have failed to stem rising insecurity. Recent jihadist attacks in Timbuktu and Bamako underscore the limited impact of military-heavy strategies. Without a political roadmap for dialogue and reconciliation, simply swapping uniforms won’t end Mali’s deepening crisis.

5️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇸 U.S. pushing for agreement that requires Rwanda to remove its forces from eastern DRC: A draft peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, obtained by Radio France Internationale, outlines firm preconditions before any deal can be signed. Chief among them is the unconditional withdrawal of all Rwandan troops, weapons, and equipment from Congolese territory—except in cases explicitly allowed under the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism. This directly challenges Kigali’s stance, as Rwanda denies having forces in the DRC, framing its presence as “defensive measures.” The text also calls for lifting the state of siege in North Kivu, in place since 2021, to restore civilian governance and enable progress. Furthermore, it stipulates that no agreement with Rwanda will be signed before Kinshasa and the M23/AFC reach a ceasefire, currently under Qatari mediation. The draft also includes provisions for dismantling the FDLR in coordination with Rwanda, under the Luanda framework.

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

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