Geopolitics Weekly
Posts
📰 Israel strikes Iran

📰 Israel strikes Iran

and BRICS expands in Kazan

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 27, 2024

In partnership with

Hello,

Tensions continue to rise across the globe with Israel’s strike on Iran, sparking fears of retaliation from the IRGC. At the same time, ceasefire talks are set to take place in Doha, as the situation in Gaza and Lebanon worsens.

Meanwhile, South Korea considers supplying arms to Ukraine following reports of North Korean troop deployments, and the UN delays peacekeeping efforts in Sudan.

Catch up on the latest below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Israel strikes Iran, risks IRGC retaliation: Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, addressed Friday night's Israeli attack on Iran, cautioning against exaggerating or downplaying the incident. In his first public response, Khamenei stated that Iranian authorities should determine the appropriate course of action, emphasising the need to convey Iran’s strength and protect its national interests. His remarks indicate that Iran is not rushing into an immediate military response and is carefully weighing its options. The Israeli attack reportedly targeted air defence systems protecting vital oil and petrochemical facilities, causing limited damage, according to Tehran’s assessment. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed sorrow over the loss of four soldiers and reaffirmed Iran’s resilience against threats. Former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif urged the West to condemn Israel's aggression and collaborate on efforts to resolve the ongoing conflicts in Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon. Iran’s UN mission accused the U.S. of complicity, alleging Israeli warplanes used Iraqi airspace under American control.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇶🇦 Gaza ceasefire talks to be held in Doha: Israel has announced that Mossad chief David Barnea will lead a delegation to Doha this weekend to lead ceasefire talks amid escalating conflict and mounting international pressure. The negotiations, involving Israeli, US, and Qatari officials, come as Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon continues, with reports of war crimes against civilian populations. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Doha, emphasised exploring new approaches for a ceasefire and rebuilding efforts in Gaza. Qatari officials reportedly re-engaged with Hamas after Israeli forces killed their leader, Yahya Sinwar. However, Hamas is not expected to be included in these talks. Israeli operations in Gaza have killed over 770 civilians in 19 days, while in Lebanon, intensified strikes have led to at least 1,580 deaths since September, prompting international humanitarian funding amid rising tensions.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 UN not prepared to send blue helmets to Sudan: UN Secretary-General António Guterres is set to deliver a report to the Security Council on 28 October regarding the protection of civilians amid Sudan’s ongoing civil war. The report will indicate that current conditions are not conducive to deploying a UN force in the country. Critics have drawn parallels between this stance and the UN’s inaction prior to the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Fighting has raged since 15 April 2023 between Sudan’s two power figures: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemeti), leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The conflict’s ripple effects are destabilising the broader region. Multiple mediation efforts are being spearheaded by international actors, including the UN, African Union, Arab League, and IGAD, to find a resolution.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 Turkish aerospace facility attacked: On Wednesday, a deadly attack targeted Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS), a key player in Turkiye’s defence sector, killing at least five people and injuring 22. The assault follows an unexpected statement by Devlet Bahceli, leader of the nationalist MHP party and ally of President Erdoğan, suggesting a potential revival of peace talks with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK, which Turkiye, the US, and the EU classify as a terrorist group, has fought a four-decade rebellion against the state. Observers speculate that the timing of the attack signals the PKK’s unwillingness to pursue a peace process. Turkish National Defence Minister Yasar Guler blamed the PKK, but no group has yet claimed responsibility. Experts, including Omer Ozkizilcik from the Atlantic Council, note the symbolic impact of targeting TUSAS, given the strategic role of Turkish drones in counterterrorism efforts. The attack's implications remain uncertain, but it highlights the fragility of peace prospects in Turkey’s ongoing conflict with the PKK.

5️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇺🇦 🇰🇵 South Korea to consider supporting Ukraine war effort after reports of North Korean troop presence: South Korea is weighing the possibility of directly supplying arms to Ukraine amid growing evidence of North Korean military involvement in Russia’s war. Last week, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that North Korea had sent 1,500 special forces troops to Russia’s Far East for training, with plans to deploy a total of 12,000 troops in four brigades. A senior official in President Yoon Suk Yeol’s office stated on Tuesday that Seoul could consider providing both defensive and lethal weapons to Ukraine, depending on the situation’s developments. This marks South Korea’s most assertive stance on arming Ukraine thus far. The move comes after an emergency meeting of South Korea’s national security council, held in response to the strengthening military ties between North Korea and Russia. South Korea has previously supported Ukraine with humanitarian aid and aligned with Western economic sanctions against Moscow.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇧🇷 🇮🇳 🇿🇦 BRICS CONVENES IN KAZAN: PUTIN CALLS FOR ALTERNATIVE INTERNATIONAL FINANCE SYSTEM

Background

At the expanded BRICS summit in Kazan, Russian President Vladimir Putin advocated for a new international payment system to challenge the dominance of the US dollar, which he criticised as being used as a political tool. Highlighting that 95% of trade between Russia and China is now in rubles and yuan, Putin emphasised a shift towards de-dollarisation. However, this move has created unease among some BRICS members, particularly Brazil and India, who are wary of BRICS becoming overtly anti-Western and pro-Chinese.

Membership Expansion

The summit witnessed the addition of new members, expanding BRICS to include countries like Turkiye, Iran, Vietnam, and Nigeria. While the enlargement was framed as a response to growing global south interest, Brazil and India have resisted transforming the group into a purely anti-Western bloc. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stressed the need for a focus on common development goals rather than geopolitical divisions.

Divergent Agendas

Despite Putin’s calls, the summit’s communique showed limited advancement on alternative payment systems. Tensions surfaced over differing visions for the group's future, with Brazil and India pushing to prevent BRICS from becoming a mouthpiece for Russia and China.

Peace Efforts and Broader Geopolitical Ramifications

The summit’s final communique made brief mention of a joint Brazil-China peace proposal for Ukraine but focused heavily on condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza. The absence of concrete steps towards peace in Ukraine left Ukrainian officials sceptical, further underscoring divisions within BRICS regarding global conflicts.

Promotion

Get your news from the future.

The world's largest prediction market.
Stay ahead on politics, culture, and news.
Get insights on market changes.

Subscribe to The Oracle

Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇮🇳 🇨🇦 Five Eyes Intelligence bloc calls for India to cooperate with Canada’s legal process, amidst diplomatic row: On Monday, Canadian police disclosed credible evidence linking Indian agents, including India’s high commissioner to Canada, to the June 2023 murder of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil, alleging a broader effort to target Indian dissidents. India denied the accusations, retaliating by expelling six senior Canadian diplomats. UK officials expressed support for Canada's judicial process, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasising the importance of the rule of law during recent discussions. Trudeau described Nijjar's killing as a "massive mistake," citing India's violation of Canada’s sovereignty. Five Eyes allies are navigating diplomatic complexities amid Canada's allegations of Indian diplomats coordinating criminal activities against South Asian Canadians. The case has heightened scrutiny of India’s international conduct, with unresolved tensions persisting across diplomatic channels.

2️⃣ 🇻🇳 Vietnam appoints former military general as new president: Vietnam’s National Assembly elected military general Luong Cuong as its new president on Monday, marking the fourth change in the largely ceremonial role within 18 months. Cuong, 67, succeeds To Lam, who remained president after being appointed general secretary of the ruling Communist Party in August—a position considered the most powerful in Vietnam. The presidency primarily involves representing the nation in meetings with foreign leaders. In his acceptance speech, Cuong pledged to pursue foreign policies centred on independence and peace while promoting Vietnam as a “trusted partner” and responsible global player. With over four decades of service in the Vietnamese military, Cuong has been a Politburo member since 2021. His appointment follows months of political instability and the death of former party general secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who had led the country since 2011.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 India, China reach disputed border deal: India and China have reached an agreement on military patrols along their contested Himalayan border, potentially resolving a conflict that began in 2020, according to India's Ministry of External Affairs. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced on Monday that weeks of negotiations between diplomats and military officials had resulted in a pact concerning patrol arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the 3,488-km border separating the two nations. The agreement aims to disengage forces and address issues that arose during the 2020 clashes. The LAC runs from Ladakh in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in the east, a region China claims as part of Tibet. Misri did not clarify if the deal entailed withdrawing the additional troops stationed in Ladakh. The announcement precedes Prime Minister Modi's visit to Russia for the BRICS summit.

4️⃣ 🇮🇩 Former general, Prabowo Subianto, sworn in as Indonesian president: Prabowo Subianto has officially become Indonesia’s eighth president, taking the oath of office at a ceremony in the nation's parliament. The 73-year-old former general, donning a traditional black songkok and a navy suit, pledged to revitalise the economy, tackle corruption, and alleviate inequality. He was joined by Gibran Rakabuming Raka, his young vice president, following their resounding victory in the February presidential election with over 58% of the vote. The inauguration, attended by leaders from 33 countries, saw Prabowo deliver a passionate speech where he acknowledged the contributions of past presidents and highlighted persistent social challenges, including poverty and corruption. He promised swift action to achieve food and energy self-sufficiency and to eliminate the nation’s systemic corruption. On foreign policy, Prabowo reaffirmed Indonesia's commitment to a non-aligned stance, advocating for global justice and opposing colonialism. Thousands of supporters lined Jakarta's streets, cheering as Prabowo journeyed to the presidential palace, waving from a sunroof to his enthusiastic crowd.

What Went Under the Radar?

🇨🇫 🇺🇳 UN Security Council holds talks on Central African Republic: The UN Security Council recently held closed consultations on the Central African Republic (CAR), focusing on updates from Valentine Rugwabiza, the Special Representative and Head of the UN Stabilization Mission in the CAR (MINUSCA). Discussions centred on political progress, notably the 2019 Peace Agreement's implementation and local-level peace efforts. However, the delay in local elections to April 2025 due to funding shortages remains a challenge. Ambassador Omar Hilale, representing the Peacebuilding Commission, briefed on efforts to mobilise resources. Security remains volatile, with armed group conflicts in the northwest and east, and a worsening humanitarian situation due to Sudanese refugees. Additionally, human rights violations and restrictions on UN operations, like UAV usage, raised concerns. As MINUSCA’s mandate nears renewal, members are expected to deliberate on adjusting it to address evolving needs and bolster electoral support ahead of 2025 elections.

Next Week’s Geopolitical Milestones

1️⃣ 🇬🇪 🇪🇺 Georgia heads to the polls in a crucial election deciding its alignment with the EU or Russia: After 12 years in power, Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream faces a tight contest against four opposition groups in a high-stakes election in Georgia. Georgian Dream accuses its rivals of trying to drag the country into the war in Ukraine, while the opposition frames the vote as a choice between alignment with Russia under the current leadership or a European future. Despite public support for EU membership, Brussels froze Georgia's accession bid this year, citing democratic backsliding. Ivanishvili emphasised a "dignified European future" at a rally in Liberty Square, where supporters waved party flags. However, allegations of voter intimidation and recent laws targeting media and civil rights groups have raised concerns over election fairness. Critics see Georgian Dream’s rhetoric as pushing an agenda reminiscent of Viktor Orban’s Hungary, prioritising stability while portraying the opposition as agents of foreign interference.